SB 278-ALASKA CLIMATE CHANGE TASK FORCE  CHAIR THOMAS WAGONER announced SB 278 to be up for consideration. SENATOR OLSON, sponsor, recapped that SB 278 establishes a task force to review climate changes, determine the implications and make recommendations. He introduced experts in the field who would give their perspective. DR. GLEN JUDAY, Professor of Forest Ecology, University of Alaska, Fairbanks (UAF), said he would pose five questions and provide five answers. 1. Is it warmer in Alaska? Yes it is and how much warmer depends on: 1) location, 2 season- warming is a bit faster in the winter than in the summer, and 3) time frame - the National Weather Service tracks trends in 30 year blocks that cover complete decades. For example 1971-2000 gives a 30 trend showing that the temperature is up about 2.5 degrees F for most stations in Alaska. Barrow has the strongest warming with an increase of over 4 degrees F. 2. What is making Alaska warmer? Solar variability, volcanoes, green house gases and global dimming drive temperature changes on the planet. The heat delivered by ocean currents and El Niños have a particular affect in Alaska and they have become more frequent, stronger and longer lasting. Therefore, Alaska is warmer. 3. Is the warming affecting anything we might care about? Yes. The average glacial loss in Alaska amounts to about 50 feet of water and the Arctic sea ice is at a minimum. Currently there are ice-free passages in the Arctic in the summer and the trend is for the ice to be completely gone by summer's end within 3 or 4 decades. Lakes are drying, river low-flow episodes are more common and river temperatures are rising. The permafrost is warming and some is thawing. Trees are growing less because they are short of water and warm weather phenomena such as forest fires and insect infestations are becoming more common and are affecting more forests. 4. Will it continue to get warmer? The best evidence indicates that if we stop all greenhouse gas now, we would still face 50- 70 years of additional strong warming. If greenhouse gas emissions continue to accelerate, there is a straight-line relationship between how much more warming there will be. 5. How do we know we can trust the people who are telling us this? Dr. Juday cited an article he wrote for Agroborealis, a research magazine published by the UAF Agriculture and Forestry Experiment Station (AFES). In 1982 there was a national level conference in Alaska that examined the possibility of climate warming. He took those predictions and compared them with what has actually happened in 2006 and they are right on target. DR. JUDAY said a next reasonable step is to get the people with the information together with the people that need to know. That's what SB 278 does and it sounds like a good plan, he concluded. 3:45:26 PM SENATOR BERT STEDMAN commented ice ages come and go and he finds the information interesting in light of the fact that Ketchikan had record rainfall last year. At least in Southeast we're not faced with drought conditions, he said. DR. JUDAY responded it's difficult to get all the nuances in a short presentation, but there's a general principle that when you affect the earth climate system in a measurable way, other places can experience change that may be the opposite. He related that the steering currents that bring storms ashore have not been going to most of the Alaska landmass, but they have been going to other places in Alaska with more frequency and intensity. SENATOR SEEKINS asked where global warming was this last January in Fairbanks. 3:47:07 PM DR. JUDAY explained that the Arctic Ocean basin has been much warmer for the last two or three years and that process accelerated last January when lots of warm air moved in. Air had to move out and go somewhere and that just happened to be right over Fairbanks. He noted that the Arctic Ocean sea-ice has set a minimum record every month for about the last year and is on track for another record melt-back. 3:48:02 PM SENATOR BEN STEVENS asked if we are at the end of a glaciation period and if so, when it started. DR. JUDAY replied there were four major episodes starting about 1 million years ago. The most recent was the Wisconsin glaciation. It began about 70,000 years ago, reached a peak about 35,000 years ago, and ended rather definitively about 12,500 years ago. SENATOR BEN STEVENS asked if the glaciers in Alaska are the remnant of the last episode. MR. JUDAY explained that the ice in the glaciers isn't that old since it's continually renewed and there have been warming and cooling episodes, but in general the answer is yes. The portion of the land surface that is covered with ice was much greater during the ice age than it is now and if it gets a whole lot warmer it will get smaller yet. SENATOR BEN STEVENS said out of curiosity he'd like to know the dates of the other three glaciations. 3:50:30 PM MR. JUDAY replied he didn't recall all the dates off hand. SENATOR DYSON asked if any icepacks are increasing at this time. MR. JUDAY replied there are a few in Alaska and a couple in other places, but they represent a distinct minority. Generally they are characterized by having the gathering areas high elevations so the main effect of the warming that we're experiencing is to increase snowfall in those high elevations. In Greenland the last four years of observation shows a higher rate of collapse than was ever anticipated. At current temperatures it now looks inevitable that it will substantially increase the sea level. In Antarctica the record is quite short and up until 2003 it wasn't possible to confirm a shrinking trend. Since then it is possible to confirm that substantial ice loss is occurring. 3:52:59 PM DR. ROLAND MAW, Executive Director, United Cook Inlet Driftnet Association (UCIDA), outlined his academic background in ecology, wildlife management, forestry and his current employment relating to fisheries. He expressed support for the previous comments and gave some insight as to why the task force is a good idea. With the current warming trend various models predict a potential 10-foot rise in sea levels in the next three decades. If the models are correct, the impact on the fishing industry will be monumental. Estuaries will flood so that nursery areas for salmon and other species will be lost; erosion will occur from Nikiski to Homer; and infrastructure for loading and unloading fishery products will be affected. The proposed task force is a good vehicle for looking at these issues. He noted the current problems with salmon returns in the MatSu Valley. Stream flows are smaller and the summertime water temperature is high enough to be lethal for migrating smolt and adults. Last summer for the first time some lakes in the MatSu experienced anoxic conditions below 3 meters. The lack of oxygen in the water column is a result of warming temperature, increased vegetation, and the subsequent dying and rotting of vegetation. Salmon mortality shows up quickly in the anoxic areas. 3:58:08 PM DR. MAW suggested the committee consider adding representation to the task force to include the industries that make a living on, around, and from the water. He reiterated his agreement with the previous speaker and said global warming is happening and we have to deal with it. 3:59:02 PM SENATOR STEDMAN asked if tectonic rebound is occurring in the Kenai Peninsula. DR. MAW replied he did not know. 3:59:44 PM BRIAN DAVIES, engineer and former chief of BP operations at Prudhoe Bay, said that over the last 35 years he has noticed a distinct warming phase in the climate, which should not be confused with weather. Alaska is at the leading edge of this global warming and is experiencing change at between two and four times the global average. The trend is clear and it would be imprudent not to plan for it to continue. Furthermore, it is likely that forestry, marine shoreline, fishing, natural resource development, and the infrastructure of towns and villages will be significantly impacted. Mr. Davies extended his full support to the idea of establishing a broad based and temporary task force to gather information and develop a business plan to deal with the challenges of this trend and hopefully identify some opportunities. SB 278 establishes a vehicle to begin planning for eventualities. 4:03:17 PM SENATOR SEEKINS referenced page 2, line 2, and asked if the ex- officio members would be voting members. SENATOR OLSON replied to the best of his knowledge, yes. SENATOR SEEKINS asked why the Alaska Conservation Alliance (ACA) has a dedicated seat and what scientific expertise it brings to the table. SENATOR OLSON replied the ACA would have personnel that have a perspective if not expertise that might be helpful to the task force. He clarified that the Senate president and House speaker would appoint all the members. SENATOR SEEKINS asked who ACA is. SENATOR OLSON replied it is a group of people that is interested in conservation ideas and issues such as climate change. SENATOR SEEKINS questioned whether the group didn't have a pre- established position. SENATOR OLSON replied not necessarily. 4:05:49 PM SENATOR SEEKINS asked if the primary concern is to look at the effect of warming trends in just the northern regions of the state. SENATOR OLSON replied the idea is to look at all areas, but there are differences across the state. As the previous witness pointed out, the trends are clear and it would be imprudent not to plan and make recommendations to meet the changes that are coming. 4:07:23 PM SENATOR SEEKINS asked how the selection of the chair would take place and whether any one of the appointees would qualify. SENATOR OLSON replied any one of the 13 appointees would be eligible. Oftentimes taskforce members decide who will be chairperson. SENATOR SEEKINS said his task force experience is that the chair is typically a legislator. He was curious if that was the intent or whether it would be open to everyone including a member of the Alaska Conservation Alliance. SENATOR OLSON responded it would depend on the good judgment of the Senate president and the House speaker to make sure the chair is well qualified for the task. 4:08:28 PM SENATOR STEDMAN recommended Senator Olson be the chair. 4:08:51 PM SENATOR SEEKINS said his preference for chair would be a legislative member who has a particular interest in the subject. CHAIR WAGONER remarked it would be up to the president and the speaker to make sure that happens. SENATOR ELTON said his understanding is that the task force would select the chair. He noted that four of the members are legislators, which is a significant voting block if they wanted a legislator to be the chair. SENATOR SEEKINS moved to amend page 2, line 23, to select a chairperson from among the members of the legislature. SENATOR ELTON objected primarily for procedural reasons. He suggested it might be best to leave the decision to the next committee where SB 278 will meet the House bill, which he suspected would be the vehicle. SENATOR SEEKINS maintained the view that a member of the legislature ought to be the chair and he wanted that clarified in this committee. SENATOR KOOKESH asked if it would affect funding. CHAIR WAGONER responded it would be up to the Senate president and the House speaker to fund the task force. SENATOR KOOKESH said he'd support the amendment if it meant that funding would be more likely. SENATOR SEEKINS noted that the fiscal notes were fairly substantial. CHAIR WAGONER said that's why the bill is going to the Finance Committee. SENATOR OLSON said he was initially taken back by the size of the fiscal notes, but believes that the $68,000 for personal services could be cut significantly. That would bring the total down to a more appropriate number, he said. CHAIR WAGONER brought the discussion back to the proposed amendment. SENATOR KOOKESH asked the sponsor to comment on the amendment. SENATOR OLSON replied he recognized that this could be a contentious point and he would defer to the committee. SENATOR SEEKINS reviewed the fiscal notes and said the chair's responsibility is to administer the budget and, in his view, that responsibility ought to fall to a member of the legislature. The chair's further responsibility is to bring order to the process, not to necessarily dominate the result. So, he said, this would in no way threaten the result or findings of the task force. 4:18:35 PM SENATOR ELTON pointed out that the task force is charged with the duty of highlighting the issues and offering recommendations to the legislature and selection of the chairperson is a most important initial decision. Because of negative public perception he cautioned against restricting the selection to one among four people rather than one among 13 people. SENATOR ELTON maintained his objection. CHAIR WAGONER commented that with the exception of department chairs, very few university officials have budget experience. SENATOR KOOKESH expressed the view that the task force ought to be able to pick the chair. CHAIR WAGONER said legislators are elected to control funds and he believes that in most cases a legislator would be more conservative and control funds better than another member. A roll call vote was taken and Amendment 1 passed with 5 yeas and 1 nay. Senator Dyson, Senator Stedman, Senator Kookesh, Senator Seekins, and Senator Wagoner voted in favor and Senator Elton voted against. SENATOR STEDMAN moved to report CSSB 278(RES) from committee with individual recommendations and attached fiscal notes. There was no objection and it was so ordered.