Legislature(2009 - 2010)SENATE FINANCE 532

02/24/2010 01:30 PM Senate FINANCE


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01:34:59 PM Start
01:35:13 PM Progressivity Profitability Parity Gas
02:26:10 PM Oil and Gas in Alaska's Production Tax
03:10:56 PM Gas Issues and Alaska's Fiscal Design
04:09:17 PM Adjourn
* first hearing in first committee of referral
+ teleconferenced
= bill was previously heard/scheduled
+ Alaska Oil/Gas Fiscal Regime TELECONFERENCED
Legislative Consultants
+ Bills Previously Heard/Scheduled TELECONFERENCED
                 SENATE FINANCE COMMITTEE                                                                                       
                     February 24, 2010                                                                                          
                         1:34 p.m.                                                                                              
                                                                                                                                
                                                                                                                                
1:34:59 PM                                                                                                                    
                                                                                                                                
CALL TO ORDER                                                                                                                 
                                                                                                                                
Co-Chair Stedman called the Senate Finance Committee                                                                            
meeting to order at 1:34 p.m.                                                                                                   
                                                                                                                                
MEMBERS PRESENT                                                                                                               
                                                                                                                                
Senator Lyman Hoffman, Co-Chair                                                                                                 
Senator Bert Stedman, Co-Chair                                                                                                  
Senator Charlie Huggins, Vice-Chair                                                                                             
Senator Johnny Ellis                                                                                                            
Senator Dennis Egan                                                                                                             
Senator Donny Olson                                                                                                             
Senator Joe Thomas                                                                                                              
                                                                                                                                
MEMBERS ABSENT                                                                                                                
                                                                                                                                
None                                                                                                                            
                                                                                                                                
ALSO PRESENT                                                                                                                  
                                                                                                                                
Pat  Galvin,   Commissioner,  Department  of   Revenue;  Dan                                                                    
Dickinson,  Legislative  Budget  & Audit  Consultant;  David                                                                    
Wood, Legislative  Budget and Audit Consultant;  Senator Joe                                                                    
Paskvan; Senator Gary Stevens; Senator John Coghill                                                                             
                                                                                                                                
PRESENT VIA TELECONFERENCE                                                                                                    
                                                                                                                                
None                                                                                                                            
                                                                                                                                
SUMMARY                                                                                                                       
                                                                                                                                
2010 Oil and Gas Production Tax Review                                                                                          
                                                                                                                                
     Progressivity Profitability Parity Gas                                                                                     
                                                                                                                                
     Oil and Gas in Alaska's Production Tax                                                                                     
                                                                                                                                
     Gas Issues and Alaska's Fiscal Design                                                                                      
                                                                                                                                
^Progressivity Profitability Parity Gas                                                                                       
                                                                                                                                
1:35:13 PM                                                                                                                    
                                                                                                                                
PAT  GALVIN, COMMISSIONER,  DEPARTMENT OF  REVENUE, referred                                                                    
to  a   handout  entitled,   "Progressivity,  Profitability,                                                                    
Parity  Gas" (copy  on file).  He turned  to slide  31 which                                                                    
showed a graph that deals  with production tax attributed to                                                                    
gas  under the  proposed  15  AAC 90.220,  or  the AGIA  tax                                                                    
inducement.  He explained  that the  regulations merely  put                                                                    
into place  the way that  the tax is figured.  He emphasized                                                                    
that  the   numbers  on  the   slide  are  being   used  for                                                                    
illustration only and do not represent reality.                                                                                 
                                                                                                                                
1:39:41 PM                                                                                                                    
                                                                                                                                
Co-Chair Stedman  asked how the  production tax  value (PTV)                                                                    
on a barrel  of oil (BOE) basis was calculated  to arrive at                                                                    
$47.  Commissioner Galvin explained  that the PTV on oil and                                                                    
gas was  calculated using the combined  taxable volume. Take                                                                    
ANS  price on  annual  production and  subtract the  royalty                                                                    
value and you get a taxable  volume. Do the same for the gas                                                                    
having to  convert the  volume into the  BOE. He  offered to                                                                    
provide the formula.                                                                                                            
                                                                                                                                
Commissioner Galvin  referred to  slide 32 and  reminded the                                                                    
committee  that the  $300 million  figure is  meaningless in                                                                    
actual value. He stressed that the  value of the slide is to                                                                    
demonstrate  a model.  He explained  the AGIA  tax exemption                                                                    
formula on slide 32.                                                                                                            
                                                                                                                                
Co-Chair Hoffman  pointed out  that the  model locks  in the                                                                    
tax. He  wondered if  it takes away  the state's  ability to                                                                    
raise  the  tax. He  wondered  why  the state  should  raise                                                                    
production taxes. He suggested setting  the rate for the gas                                                                    
tax exemption.                                                                                                                  
                                                                                                                                
1:45:04 PM                                                                                                                    
                                                                                                                                
Commissioner Galvin addressed two  issues raised by Co-Chair                                                                    
Hoffman. All  of the  gas represented in  slide 31  is being                                                                    
transported  on capacity  acquired during  the initial  open                                                                    
season.  It  is likely  that  there  will be  some  capacity                                                                    
acquired during this open season  and in subsequent seasons.                                                                    
At that point if there is  a change in production tax on gas                                                                    
the exemption would only be  available to those who acquired                                                                    
capacity during the initial open season.                                                                                        
                                                                                                                                
Commissioner  Galvin said  Co-Chair Hoffman  was correct  in                                                                    
that all of  the gas is shipped on  capacity acquired during                                                                    
the  initial open  season. The  effect of  the exemption  is                                                                    
that the legislature could not  raise the gas production tax                                                                    
effectively  above the  figure  that is  calculated in  this                                                                    
method.  He stated  that he  was  presenting information  in                                                                    
order for  the legislature to  decide if it  was acceptable.                                                                    
The  legislature will  have to  make a  determination as  to                                                                    
whether this calculation method  results in a gas production                                                                    
tax that is locked in being and low.                                                                                            
                                                                                                                                
Co-Chair Hoffman  opined that the legislature  might want to                                                                    
look  at  options  where  it   is  not  locked  into  a  gas                                                                    
production tax.  He asked what  options the  legislature has                                                                    
if  it  decides  not  to  lock  in  a  gas  production  tax.                                                                    
Commissioner  Galvin   was  not  prepared  to   answer  that                                                                    
question  because  of  a   legal  issue  regarding  upstream                                                                    
inducement.                                                                                                                     
                                                                                                                                
Co-Chair Stedman commented on  the amount of flexibility the                                                                    
legislature  has after  May 1.  Commissioner Galvin  thought                                                                    
the  legislature   had  the  authority  to   make  decisions                                                                    
regarding  the  production  tax.  The  question  raised  was                                                                    
whether  the  legislature  can  change  the  nature  of  the                                                                    
inducement or  eliminate the inducement between  now and May                                                                    
1. Commissioner  Galvin did not  have a legal opinion  as to                                                                    
the answer to that question.                                                                                                    
                                                                                                                                
1:49:10 PM                                                                                                                    
                                                                                                                                
Senator  Thomas   returned  to   the  gas   ratio  scenarios                                                                    
previously discussed. He wondered  if the inducement, in the                                                                    
form  of a  reduction  in production  taxes,  is money  that                                                                    
stays  with  the  industry. Commissioner  Galvin  said  yes.                                                                    
Senator  Thomas suggested  offering credits  in the  form of                                                                    
in-field  drilling  or  some shaving  of  progressivity.  He                                                                    
suggested   these  ideas   as   a  way   of  saving   money.                                                                    
Commissioner Galvin  reminded the  committee that  the slide                                                                    
is just  an example of  a scenario. He suggested  looking at                                                                    
the  state's  take  under various  scenarios.  At  different                                                                    
ratios the state would fare less well.                                                                                          
                                                                                                                                
1:52:46 PM                                                                                                                    
                                                                                                                                
Co-Chair  Stedman  wished  for more  information  about  the                                                                    
impact  of  the   royalty  inducement.  Commissioner  Galvin                                                                    
explained   that   the   royalty   inducement   provides   a                                                                    
methodology  for establishing  the market  value of  gas for                                                                    
royalty  calculations  purposes  using  a  methodology  that                                                                    
would be  more easily  calculated by  the producer  than the                                                                    
current method. Under the inducement  for value, there would                                                                    
be a calculation based upon  published prices in the market.                                                                    
The change in the royalty value  is a product of how closely                                                                    
the published prices  are to the actual  sales contracts. In                                                                    
an efficient market there would  be little deviation in that                                                                    
value under either methodology.  The benefit to the taxpayer                                                                    
is more  predictability. The  second royalty  inducement has                                                                    
to do  with the  state's ability  to switch  between in-kind                                                                    
and in-value.                                                                                                                   
                                                                                                                                
1:56:02 PM                                                                                                                    
                                                                                                                                
Commissioner Galvin  discussed the  value issue. If  it were                                                                    
to be taken in-kind, the state  is obligated to meet the in-                                                                    
value price.  The numbers  should be similar  at the  end of                                                                    
the  day. The  benefit of  the  inducement is  based on  the                                                                    
certainty on the  part of the producer as to  whether or not                                                                    
the state  is going to  take their gas in-kind  or in-value.                                                                    
Under the current  leases, the state is able  to switch with                                                                    
only a few months notice.                                                                                                       
                                                                                                                                
Co-Chair  Stedman  asked  about  the  example  and  how  the                                                                    
royalties  apply  if   taken  in-kind.  Commissioner  Galvin                                                                    
explained  that royalty  in-kind  means  taking the  state's                                                                    
contractual right to a royalty in  the form of gas. The only                                                                    
way that an  in-kind take on the part of  the state is going                                                                    
to effect  the bottom  line on  the chart,  is if  the state                                                                    
chose to take its tax  in-kind. He suggested several ways of                                                                    
making  that calculation.  Co-Chair  Stedman requested  that                                                                    
the  commissioner  provide  more  information.  Commissioner                                                                    
Galvin continued to explain taking tax value in-kind.                                                                           
                                                                                                                                
2:00:39 PM                                                                                                                    
                                                                                                                                
Commissioner  Galvin   turned  to  price   expectations  and                                                                    
forecasting challenges.  He turned to slide  34, which shows                                                                    
a graph  on oil/gas price  parity. He questioned  what would                                                                    
happen in the future.                                                                                                           
                                                                                                                                
2:02:56 PM                                                                                                                    
                                                                                                                                
Commissioner  Galvin explained  slide 35  - U.S.  DOE Energy                                                                    
Information  Administration  (EIA)   forecasting,  which  is                                                                    
widely  quoted, but  usually not  accurate.  He related  the                                                                    
history  of  EIA's forecasting  since  1980.  He showed  how                                                                    
EIA's forecasting is not even close - slides 36 and 37.                                                                         
                                                                                                                                
2:05:15 PM                                                                                                                    
                                                                                                                                
Commissioner Galvin reviewed  slides 38 and 39.  In the past                                                                    
five years,  the state has  gone from an expected  major gas                                                                    
shortfall  to awash  in gas.  The question  of what  happens                                                                    
from 2020  to 2030 depends  on what the relationship  of oil                                                                    
to gas  might be at that  time. He concluded that  the state                                                                    
needs  an approach  that adapts  to any  number of  possible                                                                    
future states.                                                                                                                  
                                                                                                                                
2:06:59 PM                                                                                                                    
                                                                                                                                
Commissioner  Galvin concluded  by discussing  policy issues                                                                    
associated  with the  gas tax.  Slide 41  shows the  gas tax                                                                    
policy options  by 2014: the  state's appropriate  cash flow                                                                    
from a  pipeline, the  risks the state  is willing  to bear,                                                                    
and  the level  of  certainty the  state  will provide.  The                                                                    
fiscal system  is a policy consideration  and entails risks.                                                                    
The current system  could be left as is,  accepting that gas                                                                    
price risk  is an incentive  for producers. The  state could                                                                    
eliminate the  risk that  combined oil  and gas  tax revenue                                                                    
would be less than the current  oil tax. It could reduce the                                                                    
oil tax  thus reducing the  effect of price parity.  Or, the                                                                    
state could  separate or ringfence gas  production for state                                                                    
production tax purposes.                                                                                                        
                                                                                                                                
2:10:17 PM                                                                                                                    
                                                                                                                                
Co-Chair  Hoffman   asked  if  the  options   are  available                                                                    
regardless of what happens in  the open season. Commissioner                                                                    
Galvin  said  they   were,  to  the  extent   that  the  gas                                                                    
production tax  for the  gas shipped  on capacity  is capped                                                                    
based  upon   the  earlier  methodology.   Co-Chair  Hoffman                                                                    
wondered  how the  lock-in coincides  with the  Alaska State                                                                    
Constitution,  which  says  legislation cannot  bind  future                                                                    
legislatures  from setting  tax policy.  Commissioner Galvin                                                                    
thought the legislative  record was clear that  the AGIA tax                                                                    
inducement was crafted with that in mind, in good faith.                                                                        
                                                                                                                                
Co-Chair  Hoffman  restated  a statement  that  Commissioner                                                                    
Galvin made, "Except for the  provisions of the formula that                                                                    
were set in AGIA, we  can manipulate the gas tax structure."                                                                    
Co-Chair  Hoffman   asked  which  statement   was  accurate.                                                                    
Commissioner Galvin  explained that  the statement  was made                                                                    
assuming  that  the  legislature  would want  to  honor  the                                                                    
exemption  in the  AGIA  statute.  Each legislature,  moving                                                                    
forward,  has  the  authority  to   decide  to  remove  that                                                                    
exemption.                                                                                                                      
                                                                                                                                
Co-Chair  Stedman  asked  if  there  was  any  recourse  the                                                                    
industry could  bring against the  legislature. Commissioner                                                                    
Galvin did not think so.  He said that the legislature could                                                                    
decide whether or not to keep the exemption in place.                                                                           
                                                                                                                                
Co-Chair  Stedman pointed  out  the May  1  deadline has  no                                                                    
validity  next January  20, 2011,  when  the legislature  is                                                                    
back  in  session.  Hypothetically,  the  legislature  could                                                                    
scrap the whole thing and  rewrite the gas tax. Commissioner                                                                    
Galvin  stated  that   it  has  as  much   validity  as  the                                                                    
legislature chooses to give it.                                                                                                 
                                                                                                                                
2:14:41 PM     AT-EASE                                                                                                        
2:18:44 PM     RECONVENED                                                                                                     
                                                                                                                                
^Oil and Gas in Alaska's Production Tax                                                                                       
                                                                                                                                
DAN  DICKINSON,  LEGISLATIVE   BUDGET  &  AUDIT  CONSULTANT,                                                                    
referred  to  a  handout  out  entitled,  "Oil  and  Gas  in                                                                    
Alaska's Production Tax"(copy on  file). He began with slide                                                                    
2 - "Why are we going  through all these numbers?" He listed                                                                    
the following questions:                                                                                                        
                                                                                                                                
     Is this system stable or robust and likely to be                                                                           
    viable over a wide range of conditions (including a                                                                         
     good environment for a gas project)?                                                                                       
                                                                                                                                
     Are the cross subsidies clear and rational?                                                                                
                                                                                                                                
     How will the state react if there are large drops in                                                                       
     tax revenue? To whom will it look for revenue?                                                                             
                                                                                                                                
He noted that there were two ways of measuring the issue:                                                                       
                                                                                                                                
     How much does gas "drag down" or "compensate" oil                                                                          
     progressivity?                                                                                                             
                                                                                                                                
     How much will tax revenues fall because a gas project                                                                      
     is added?                                                                                                                  
Finance Committee                                                                                                               
2:26:10 PM                                                                                                                    
                                                                                                                                
Mr. Dickinson  posed a scenario  where the fall  in revenues                                                                    
is so  great that it  eats up all  the royalties due  to the                                                                    
state.  Co-Chair Stedman  asked what  numbers Mr.  Dickinson                                                                    
was referring to.                                                                                                               
                                                                                                                                
Mr. Dickinson emphasized  that he was talking  about oil and                                                                    
gas values  that have been seen  in the market place  in the                                                                    
Lower 48  and the  kinds of  costs it  will take  to achieve                                                                    
those  values and  who will  bear the  risks to  do so.  Mr.                                                                    
Dickinson restated that the main  points remain how much oil                                                                    
sells at the market, which has fluctuated greatly.                                                                              
                                                                                                                                
2:27:31 PM                                                                                                                    
                                                                                                                                
Mr. Dickinson explained slide 3  to explain how the combined                                                                    
oil  and gas  tax works.  He detailed  an oil-only  scenario                                                                    
when oil is  at $80 per barrel. He explained  the formula to                                                                    
get to $4.2 billion, which is the total tax rate.                                                                               
                                                                                                                                
2:33:09 PM                                                                                                                    
                                                                                                                                
Mr. Dickinson detailed how the  scenario would change if gas                                                                    
were  added.  He explained  the  formula  to get  to  $821.6                                                                    
billion total tax rate for stand alone gas.                                                                                     
                                                                                                                                
Co-Chair  Stedman  commented   that  additional  information                                                                    
would  be added  with the  ratio of  gas to  oil in  various                                                                    
scenarios.                                                                                                                      
                                                                                                                                
Mr. Dickinson  related that he  chose this  scenario because                                                                    
it depicts a 50/50 ratio of oil to gas.                                                                                         
                                                                                                                                
2:36:46 PM                                                                                                                    
                                                                                                                                
Mr. Dickinson pointed out that gas  is not worth what oil is                                                                    
worth on an energy equivalent  basis. He pointed out that in                                                                    
the examples  he uses  he has listed  all upstream  costs on                                                                    
the oil side. The cost of moving gas is borne by oil.                                                                           
                                                                                                                                
Mr. Dickinson continued  to explain the tax  formula using a                                                                    
combined scenario.  He explained that the  law considers the                                                                    
taxable value of everything. The  total tax for the combined                                                                    
gas  and oil  scenario is  $4.1 billion,  which is  less tax                                                                    
than is generated by oil  alone. He noted that credits would                                                                    
change the total dollar amount,  but the relationships would                                                                    
be the same.                                                                                                                    
                                                                                                                                
2:40:49 PM                                                                                                                    
                                                                                                                                
Mr.  Dickinson explained  that there  are different  ways to                                                                    
measure the tax.  The first total is the sum  of stand alone                                                                    
oil  and gas;  the  second number  is the  gain  or loss  in                                                                    
production  tax  from using  current  gas  versus the  stand                                                                    
alone analysis; and the third figure  is the gain or loss in                                                                    
production tax form adding gas stream under current law.                                                                        
                                                                                                                                
Co-Chair  Stedman  asked  Mr. Dickinson  to  point  out  the                                                                    
differences in the administration's plan.                                                                                       
                                                                                                                                
Mr. Dickinson moved  on to slide 4 which  shows the previous                                                                    
scenario using numbers  from January 2010. The  tax is again                                                                    
lower by combining oil and gas.                                                                                                 
                                                                                                                                
Co-Chair  Stedman asked  if the  figures were  actual market                                                                    
values.  Mr. Dickinson  said they  were. He  stated that  he                                                                    
took  the   most  favorable  of  the   numbers  provided  by                                                                    
TransCanada.                                                                                                                    
                                                                                                                                
Mr.  Dickinson  moved  on  to  slide  5:  "Looking  Forward:                                                                    
Combined  Progressivity Tax  (CPT)". The  graph is  based on                                                                    
real numbers  from June of  2008. Gas and oil  exported from                                                                    
the state  are taxed at  the same rate.  Both are part  of a                                                                    
combined progressivity calculation. Price  swings in one can                                                                    
affect the tax  on the other. Gas is shown  converted to oil                                                                    
on  a  Btu  basis,  roughly six  to  one.  Progressivity  is                                                                    
triggered  by $30  BOE PTV.  He  explained the  calculations                                                                    
shown on the graph.                                                                                                             
                                                                                                                                
2:45:50 PM                                                                                                                    
                                                                                                                                
Mr. Dickinson noted that he  was using several Gaffney Cline                                                                    
slides in his presentation.                                                                                                     
                                                                                                                                
Co-Chair Stedman asked if the  presentation was given to the                                                                    
Joint   Resources   Committee.    Mr.   Dickinson   recalled                                                                    
presentations to LB&A, Joint  Resources, Senate Finance, and                                                                    
Resources.                                                                                                                      
                                                                                                                                
Mr. Dickinson turned  to slide 7 to explain  the response to                                                                    
Mr. Dickinson  from Gaffney Cline.  The basic  elements were                                                                    
introduced in  the 2006 tax  changes; the focus was  on oil;                                                                    
and  gas  was "on  hold"  waiting  for  the release  of  the                                                                    
"Stranded Gas Development Act" contract (May 2006).                                                                             
                                                                                                                                
2:48:17 PM                                                                                                                    
                                                                                                                                
Mr. Dickinson showed  slide 8, a Gaffney  Cline slide, which                                                                    
depicts  cross subsidies  and less  tax.  The cross  subsidy                                                                    
issue caused  by progressivity was  also discussed  at great                                                                    
length and  it was  shown how, under  certain circumstances,                                                                    
the  "effective"   rate  of  tax  on   a  higher  cost/lower                                                                    
profitability development  (such as gas or  heavy oil) could                                                                    
be lower  than the  base rate.  It was  also noted  that any                                                                    
evaluation involved many  commercial and economic parameters                                                                    
that would need  to be evaluated across a  range of expected                                                                    
values.                                                                                                                         
                                                                                                                                
Mr. Dickinson  showed another Gaffney  Cline slide.  Slide 9                                                                    
shows that  pricing parity  is key. One  way to  predict the                                                                    
future is  to look  at the  past. The  graph shows  that the                                                                    
past was not a good predictor of the future.                                                                                    
                                                                                                                                
Mr. Dickinson showed  slides 10 - 12,  updated Gaffney Cline                                                                    
slides under different scenarios.                                                                                               
                                                                                                                                
Mr. Dickinson  explained that slide  13 portrays  a scenario                                                                    
where  less  combined  tax  is   collected.  It  shows  that                                                                    
modifying the  oil/gas price parity is  revealing. Around 13                                                                    
is the point to declare the gas tax unnecessary.                                                                                
                                                                                                                                
2:53:26 PM                                                                                                                    
                                                                                                                                
Mr.  Dickinson described  slide 14,  another scenario  where                                                                    
less combined  tax is  collected. Tax  revenues fall  with a                                                                    
parity ratio  of 25.  The amount  collected equals  less tax                                                                    
and overwhelms  the royalty that  would be paid.  The higher                                                                    
parities result in less tax, not more.                                                                                          
                                                                                                                                
Co-Chair  Stedman asked  if payments  are made  monthly. Mr.                                                                    
Dickinson responded that  there is still a net  cash flow to                                                                    
the state.  The amount of  tax has  fallen so much  that the                                                                    
state would still  receive a royalty check, but  it would be                                                                    
very small.  Production tax and royalties  are paid monthly,                                                                    
but would result in a net loss in revenue to the treasury.                                                                      
                                                                                                                                
Mr.  Dickinson addressed  slide  15, the  impact of  varying                                                                    
both oil and  gas production and price ratios.  When the oil                                                                    
and gas  volumes are equal,  there is maximum dilution  at a                                                                    
given price.                                                                                                                    
                                                                                                                                
2:57:22 PM                                                                                                                    
                                                                                                                                
Mr. Dickinson noted the effects  of volume. The numbers used                                                                    
in the graph that reflect  future projections will not be so                                                                    
dramatic.                                                                                                                       
                                                                                                                                
Mr. Dickinson summarized Gaffney  Cline's findings and added                                                                    
his own comments  on slide 17. A range  of possible outcomes                                                                    
caused  by  ACES'  structure was  identified,  reviewed  and                                                                    
built into  the final design  of ACES to  provide incentives                                                                    
to both existing SOA producers,  as well as to new entrants.                                                                    
He questioned if these were well-targeted incentives.                                                                           
                                                                                                                                
Mr.  Dickinson   continued.  When  evaluating  ACES   and  a                                                                    
possible  gas line,  reasonable  results  are obtained  when                                                                    
real  world  input  values   are  used.  Reasonable  results                                                                    
include  material potential  tax revenue  losses from  a gas                                                                    
line.   He stated  that nobody  has brought  forth expected,                                                                    
sustainable  scenarios  to  show   that  ACES  needs  to  be                                                                    
modified.                                                                                                                       
                                                                                                                                
Mr. Dickinson turned  to slide 18 -  solutions. He suggested                                                                    
changing AS 43.55 before the  open season. When revenues are                                                                    
actually  impacted, add  a recoupment  factor outside  of AS                                                                    
43.55 - for  example, in Income Tax or in  a new section. He                                                                    
maintained that locking down  current production taxes under                                                                    
AS  43.55   is  not   prohibiting  any   additional  revenue                                                                    
enhancements in relation to a gas project.                                                                                      
                                                                                                                                
He  requested  that  AS  43.55 be  left  alone;  instead,  a                                                                    
revenue raising statute could be written.                                                                                       
                                                                                                                                
3:03:28 PM                                                                                                                    
                                                                                                                                
Co-Chair Stedman stated that the  interest is not so much to                                                                    
increase state revenue,  but rather to prevent  a leakage or                                                                    
erosion of the entire gas revenue stream.                                                                                       
                                                                                                                                
3:04:09 PM     AT EASE                                                                                                        
3:10:33 PM     RECONVENED                                                                                                     
                                                                                                                                
^Gas Issues and Alaska's Fiscal Design                                                                                          
                                                                                                                                
3:10:56 PM                                                                                                                    
                                                                                                                                
Co-Chair Stedman introduced David  Wood whom the legislature                                                                    
hired a year and a half ago to  help with an oil and gas tax                                                                    
structure.                                                                                                                      
                                                                                                                                
DAVID  WOOD,   LEGISLATIVE  BUDGET  AND   AUDIT  CONSULTANT,                                                                    
referred  to a  handout entitled,  "Gas Issues  and Alaska's                                                                    
Fiscal Design"  (copy on  file). Mr.  Wood reported  that he                                                                    
brings an independent, detached perspective to the issues.                                                                      
                                                                                                                                
3:13:22 PM                                                                                                                    
                                                                                                                                
Mr. Wood began with slide 2 - a presentation structure                                                                          
which focuses on the key issues pertaining to natural gas                                                                       
in Alaska in the context of establishing a long-term and                                                                        
enduring fiscal design:                                                                                                         
                                                                                                                                
      What are the issues for Alaska's fiscal regime when                                                                       
      applied to gas?                                                                                                           
      What are the fiscal designs applied by other                                                                              
      countries?                                                                                                                
      What are the risks and opportunities for                                                                                  
      international gas suppliers?                                                                                              
      Alaska's Prevailing Fiscal design Complications of                                                                        
      combined oil and gas progressivity tax (CPT).                                                                             
      Multi-year and multi-scenario fiscal performance cash                                                                     
      flow models.                                                                                                              
      Conclusions and recommendations.                                                                                          
                                                                                                                                
3:15:50 PM                                                                                                                    
                                                                                                                                
Mr. Wood  turned to  the issues  for Alaska's  fiscal regime                                                                    
when  applied to  gas. He  explained that  Alaska is  one of                                                                    
several potential long-term suppliers  of natural gas to the                                                                    
Lower 48  - slide 4. He  noted that fiscal terms  are one of                                                                    
several  factor that  influence the  delivered price  of gas                                                                    
into a market and it  is important to understand differences                                                                    
among competing  sources. He pointed out  that the long-term                                                                    
competition  to  deliver natural  gas  to  the Lower  48  is                                                                    
intense.  He  noted  that  the   major  companies  that  are                                                                    
invested in  Alaskan oil  are also  involved with  large gas                                                                    
investments in  competing countries.  He questioned  why the                                                                    
Alaskan project was not yet sanctioned.                                                                                         
                                                                                                                                
3:17:36 PM                                                                                                                    
                                                                                                                                
Mr. Wood offered a slide  which shows that international gas                                                                    
markets are  growing, and competition for  gas is increasing                                                                    
-  slide  5. North  America  is  a relatively  small  market                                                                    
relative  to other  markets. He  labeled the  2020 and  2030                                                                    
forecasts as optimistic.                                                                                                        
                                                                                                                                
Mr. Wood pointed out that  the major IOC's are signing long-                                                                    
term  binding international  gas  agreements -  slide 6.  He                                                                    
showed a  list of some  of the  large LNG sale  and purchase                                                                    
agreements  struck  in  2009. He  concluded  that  there  is                                                                    
enthusiasm  by  the gas  buyers  and  the international  oil                                                                    
companies to enter into long-term gas agreements.                                                                               
                                                                                                                                
3:20:48 PM                                                                                                                    
                                                                                                                                
Mr. Wood turned to slide  7 - worldwide new gas liquefaction                                                                    
developments  to  2013  and   beyond.  He  detailed  several                                                                    
projects. The  arrows show  newly sanctioned  operations. He                                                                    
noted that the  volume of new gas increased  worldwide by 12                                                                    
percent between November and December 2009.                                                                                     
                                                                                                                                
Mr.  Wood noted  that gas  imports to  the U.S.  declined in                                                                    
2008 for  the first time  in more than  a decade -  slide 8.                                                                    
The reason is primarily from the  impact of shale gas in the                                                                    
Lower 48.  Slide 9 shows  that LNG  imports to the  U.S. are                                                                    
down. The U.S.  market is out of synch with  the rest of the                                                                    
world. Shale gas is the key factor.                                                                                             
                                                                                                                                
3:24:01 PM                                                                                                                    
                                                                                                                                
Mr. Wood reported that Canadian  gas imports to the U.S. are                                                                    
down  -   slide  10.  Slide   11  depicts  the   global  LNG                                                                    
supply/demand forecast to 2020.  The expectation is a period                                                                    
of low gas prices and  a natural gas surplus. Sanctioning of                                                                    
the  Alaska gas  line  will take  place  during this  trend.                                                                    
Looking  forward  from  2014  to  2020,  there  will  be  an                                                                    
international  gas  deficit.  He suggested  considering  the                                                                    
long-term value of LNG.                                                                                                         
                                                                                                                                
3:26:44 PM                                                                                                                    
                                                                                                                                
Mr. Wood discussed the U.S.  oil-to-gas price ratio and what                                                                    
range fiscal designs  should consider - slide  12. The price                                                                    
parity numbers have risen to the 20 level in recent months.                                                                     
                                                                                                                                
Mr. Wood looked  at the EIA forecast - slide  13. The latest                                                                    
U.S.  government  forecast   shows  high  oil-to-gas  ratios                                                                    
through 2035. He  maintained that a price spike  in a couple                                                                    
of years  would have a  significant impact on gas  value. He                                                                    
concluded that it would lead to cross subsidy dilution.                                                                         
                                                                                                                                
3:30:11 PM                                                                                                                    
                                                                                                                                
Mr. Wood examined  what fiscal designs are  applied by other                                                                    
countries and  what the risks and  opportunities were. Slide                                                                    
15  is  a summary  of  international  upstream oil  and  gas                                                                    
fiscal  designs.  Slide 16  looks  at  Norway, which  has  a                                                                    
mineral interest system, in fiscal  terms. He made the point                                                                    
that they  are progressive  systems and  do not  have fiscal                                                                    
elements  such  as  bonuses or  royalties.  There  are  also                                                                    
incentives such as credits in  the system. He said the state                                                                    
take is 80 percent, higher  than Alaska's take, and it still                                                                    
attracts foreign business for investment.                                                                                       
                                                                                                                                
3:33:36 PM                                                                                                                    
                                                                                                                                
Mr.  Wood related  the fiscal  terms of  Papua New  Guinea -                                                                    
slide  17. The  fiscal  system is  also  a mineral  interest                                                                    
system and a progressive  fiscal system. Upsurge in interest                                                                    
in large  LNG projects  led to legislative  changes offering                                                                    
progressivity and  stability. Slide 18  examines Australia's                                                                    
fiscal terms.  It also  has a progressive  system.   He said                                                                    
Australia's  fiscal   take  is   similar  to   Alaska's.  He                                                                    
suggested Alaska consider these designs.                                                                                        
                                                                                                                                
3:36:30 PM                                                                                                                    
                                                                                                                                
Mr. Wood  turned to  slide 19  - Alaska  gas compared  on an                                                                    
international   scale  of   risk  versus   opportunity.  The                                                                    
diameters of the bubbles are  proportional to proved natural                                                                    
gas reserves.                                                                                                                   
                                                                                                                                
Mr.  Wood turned  attention  to  Alaska's prevailing  fiscal                                                                    
design. Slide 21 highlights  elements of Alaska's prevailing                                                                    
oil  and gas  fiscal  design. He  explained  the graph.  The                                                                    
three points on  the left stand out  as regressive elements.                                                                    
Alaska is  unique because its  regressive elements  are more                                                                    
significant  than   other  countries'  elements.   No  other                                                                    
country gives  inducements at "this  end of the  scale". Mr.                                                                    
Wood  said  it  is  more  logical  the  way  Alaska  applies                                                                    
aggressive elements compared to other countries.                                                                                
                                                                                                                                
3:40:41 PM                                                                                                                    
                                                                                                                                
Mr. Wood  explained the regressive and  progressive elements                                                                    
of  Alaska's design  - slide  22. It  is not  common to  see                                                                    
inducements  rolled  into  a fiscal  structure  like  Alaska                                                                    
does.                                                                                                                           
                                                                                                                                
Mr.  Wood highlighted  key regressive  elements in  Alaska's                                                                    
design - slide 23.  He suggested consideration of de-linking                                                                    
oil  and  gas  in  progressivity.  The  inducements  at  the                                                                    
progressivity  end  won't  help investments  being  made  in                                                                    
heavy oil, marginal fields, and when prices are low.                                                                            
                                                                                                                                
3:43:15 PM                                                                                                                    
                                                                                                                                
Mr. Wood  talked about how  progressive and  flexible fiscal                                                                    
designs help to  promote investment - slide  24. He referred                                                                    
to slide  25 and  maintained that progressivity  should work                                                                    
well  for Alaska.  He compared  fiscal take  in Alaska  with                                                                    
international companies.  It's the regressive  elements that                                                                    
need relief.  The producer take  is substantially  less than                                                                    
the  Alaska   take  under   the  current   system.  Combined                                                                    
progressivity is  acting as an  inducement. He  suggested an                                                                    
area  where  inducements  could   help.  He  concluded  that                                                                    
international  companies  are  willing  to  be  involved  in                                                                    
projects  that  offer  a  far  lower  return  than  Alaska's                                                                    
current  fiscal design.  Putting a  subsidy at  high oil/gas                                                                    
prices does not make sense.                                                                                                     
                                                                                                                                
3:47:30 PM                                                                                                                    
                                                                                                                                
Mr.  Wood  said  that  high discount  rates  suggest  higher                                                                    
government take  of revenues -  slide 26. It  is appropriate                                                                    
for governments to use lower  discount rates than producers.                                                                    
High discount  rates impact long-term divisible  profits and                                                                    
operating  costs more  than upfront  capital costs  diminish                                                                    
producer take.                                                                                                                  
                                                                                                                                
3:49:38 PM                                                                                                                    
                                                                                                                                
Mr. Wood  turned to  complications of  combined oil  and gas                                                                    
progressivity tax  (CPT). Slide 28 deals  with problems with                                                                    
Alaska's  current progressivity  tax  from  the natural  gas                                                                    
perspective.                                                                                                                    
                                                                                                                                
Mr. Wood  explained that  slide 29  discusses the  impact of                                                                    
natural gas on combined oil and gas production tax.                                                                             
                                                                                                                                
3:51:13 PM                                                                                                                    
                                                                                                                                
Mr.  Wood turned  to  a  graph on  slide  30  - natural  gas                                                                    
dilution effects on combined oil  and gas production tax. He                                                                    
showed the  dilution affect at under  various scenarios. The                                                                    
lower the  gas production tax  value, the greater  the loss,                                                                    
in terms of the cross subsidy.                                                                                                  
                                                                                                                                
Mr.  Wood referred  to  a presentation  by  Gaffney Cline  &                                                                    
Associates (GCA)  on February  22, 2010.  He said  he worked                                                                    
with their  model and  transformed it  to calculate  oil and                                                                    
gas combined BOE  - slide 30. He stressed  the importance of                                                                    
wide  ranges.   Gas  price  parity  should   be  taken  into                                                                    
consideration. He  spoke of  calculating the  production tax                                                                    
values.  He demonstrated  calculations, described  what they                                                                    
were doing, and showed a graphical version of the data.                                                                         
                                                                                                                                
3:58:07 PM                                                                                                                    
                                                                                                                                
Mr. Wood described  the modifications made to  the GCA model                                                                    
to calculate  BOE -  slides 32, and  33. He  discussed slide                                                                    
34. He emphasized the importance  of looking at stability at                                                                    
wide ranges when developing a fiscal design.                                                                                    
                                                                                                                                
3:59:48 PM                                                                                                                    
                                                                                                                                
Mr.  Wood explained  the production  tax  rate analysis  for                                                                    
1728 macro scenarios  for combining oil and gas  - slide 35.                                                                    
The state  can end up  with a  huge range of  production tax                                                                    
rates. The  gas dilution  effect is  much less  important at                                                                    
low prices.                                                                                                                     
                                                                                                                                
Mr.  Wood described  his conclusions  from the  combined oil                                                                    
and gas production tax model -  slide 36. He said he knew of                                                                    
no other  country where a  government would give  a producer                                                                    
billions  of  dollars  of  subsidy   through  this  type  of                                                                    
mechanism.  He   stressed  that  individual   snapshots  are                                                                    
important,  but represent  only one  particular possibility.                                                                    
He suggested considering a whole spectrum of possibilities.                                                                     
                                                                                                                                
4:02:06 PM                                                                                                                    
                                                                                                                                
Co-Chair  Stedman  corrected that  the  model  was from  the                                                                    
Department of Revenue, not Gaffney Cline.                                                                                       
                                                                                                                                
4:03:00 PM                                                                                                                    
                                                                                                                                
Mr. Wood  explained slide  37 -  natural gas  production tax                                                                    
dilution effects  impacted by reinvestment.  If some  of the                                                                    
PTV is reinvested,  the reduction in production  tax paid is                                                                    
significantly greater.  The graph shows  the impact of  a 10                                                                    
percent reinvestment.                                                                                                           
                                                                                                                                
Mr.  Wood pointed  out  in  slide 38  that  the natural  gas                                                                    
production  tax  dilution  is  different  depending  on  the                                                                    
reinvestment  scenario.  He  spoke   of  the  difficulty  of                                                                    
predicting progressivity.  There are  many unknowns.  Over a                                                                    
multi-year period,  the oil-to-gas ratio of  the North Slope                                                                    
will change as gas  progressively replaces oil. Each company                                                                    
will have a different oil-to-gas ratio per field.                                                                               
                                                                                                                                
4:05:25 PM                                                                                                                    
                                                                                                                                
Mr. Wood skipped to slide  41 - the implications of combined                                                                    
oil and  gas production tax analysis.  The analysis suggests                                                                    
that the prevailing production tax  system has the following                                                                    
complications to address:                                                                                                       
                                                                                                                                
       1. It is difficult to predict (from tax authority &                                                                      
       producer perspectives) and relationships between oil                                                                     
       and gas tax liabilities are non-linear;                                                                                  
       2. The magnitude of combined production tax impact                                                                       
       caused by adding a gas production stream varies with                                                                     
       relative oil and gas PTVs, oil and gas volumes and                                                                       
       percentage of PTV re-invested;                                                                                           
       3. Without detailed analysis (and speculative                                                                            
       forecasting of oil and gas prices and BOE                                                                                
       contributions) Alaska's production tax outcomes can                                                                      
       be counterintuitive (e.g. higher prices can lead to                                                                      
       lower tax revenues collected by the State in some                                                                        
       scenarios).                                                                                                              
                                                                                                                                
Mr. Wood did not think this  type of structure was stable in                                                                    
the longer term.                                                                                                                
                                                                                                                                
4:07:39 PM                                                                                                                    
                                                                                                                                
Mr. Wood  turned to slide 42  - a diagram of  Alaska oil and                                                                    
gas  fiscal take  and funds  flow.  It looks  at what  could                                                                    
potentially  be  done  to  address  the  issue  of  combined                                                                    
progressivity. The  simplest solution is to  de-link oil and                                                                    
gas components.                                                                                                                 
                                                                                                                                
Mr. Wood  explained slide  43 -  alternative drivers  of gas                                                                    
progressivity  tax evaluated  by fiscal  model. The  easiest                                                                    
first step  is to  separate gas and  oil. If  incentives are                                                                    
deemed to  be needed to attract  investment, the inducements                                                                    
should be  directed at the  regressive end of  the spectrum,                                                                    
not into the progressivity area.                                                                                                
                                                                                                                                
4:09:17 PM                                                                                                                    
                                                                                                                                
Senator  Egan asked  what  the deadline  should  be to  make                                                                    
changes  to  the  production tax.  Mr.  Wood  believed  that                                                                    
before May 1 would be ideal.                                                                                                    
                                                                                                                                
ADJOURNMENT                                                                                                                   
                                                                                                                                
The meeting was adjourned at 4:09 PM.                                                                                           

Document Name Date/Time Subjects
2010 02 24 DWood Gas AK FiscalDesign SFC.pdf SFIN 2/24/2010 1:30:00 PM
Oil and Gas Production Tax Review
2010 02 24 LBA Dickinson SFC Gas Oil .pdf SFIN 2/24/2010 1:30:00 PM
Oil and Gas Production Tax Review
Wood Bio Feb 2010.pdf SFIN 2/24/2010 1:30:00 PM
Oil and Gas Production Tax Review
Agenda 022410 pm.docx SFIN 2/24/2010 1:30:00 PM
Oil and Gas Production Tax Review