Legislature(2021 - 2022)SENATE FINANCE 532

02/03/2022 09:00 AM Senate FINANCE

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Audio Topic
09:00:47 AM Start
09:02:19 AM SB162 || SB163
10:45:17 AM Adjourn
* first hearing in first committee of referral
+ teleconferenced
= bill was previously heard/scheduled
+= SB 162 APPROP: OPERATING BUDGET/LOANS/FUNDS TELECONFERENCED
Heard & Held
+= SB 163 APPROP: MENTAL HEALTH BUDGET TELECONFERENCED
Heard & Held
Baseline & Governor's 10-year Plan
Alexei Painter, Director of Legislative Finance
+ Bills Previously Heard/Scheduled TELECONFERENCED
                 SENATE FINANCE COMMITTEE                                                                                       
                     February 3, 2022                                                                                           
                         9:00 a.m.                                                                                              
                                                                                                                                
                                                                                                                                
9:00:47 AM                                                                                                                    
                                                                                                                                
CALL TO ORDER                                                                                                                 
                                                                                                                                
Co-Chair Stedman called the Senate Finance Committee                                                                            
meeting to order at 9:00 a.m.                                                                                                   
                                                                                                                                
MEMBERS PRESENT                                                                                                               
                                                                                                                                
Senator Click Bishop, Co-Chair                                                                                                  
Senator Bert Stedman, Co-Chair                                                                                                  
Senator Lyman Hoffman                                                                                                           
Senator Donny Olson                                                                                                             
Senator Bill Wielechowski                                                                                                       
Senator David Wilson                                                                                                            
                                                                                                                                
MEMBERS ABSENT                                                                                                                
                                                                                                                                
Senator Natasha von Imhof                                                                                                       
                                                                                                                                
ALSO PRESENT                                                                                                                  
                                                                                                                                
Pete Ecklund, Staff, Senator Bert Stedman; Alexei Painter,                                                                      
Director, Legislative Finance Division; Hunter Bell, Fiscal                                                                     
Analyst, Legislative Finance Division.                                                                                          
                                                                                                                                
SUMMARY                                                                                                                       
                                                                                                                                
SB 162    APPROP: OPERATING BUDGET/LOANS/FUNDS                                                                                  
                                                                                                                                
          SB 162 was HEARD and HELD in committee for                                                                            
          further consideration.                                                                                                
                                                                                                                                
SB 163    APPROP: MENTAL HEALTH BUDGET                                                                                          
                                                                                                                                
          SB 163 was HEARD and HELD in committee for                                                                            
          further consideration.                                                                                                
                                                                                                                                
SENATE BILL NO. 162                                                                                                           
                                                                                                                                
     "An  Act making  appropriations for  the operating  and                                                                    
     loan  program  expenses  of state  government  and  for                                                                    
     certain   programs;    capitalizing   funds;   amending                                                                    
     appropriations;    making   reappropriations;    making                                                                    
     supplemental   appropriations;  making   appropriations                                                                    
     under art.  IX, sec.  17(c), Constitution of  the State                                                                    
     of  Alaska,  from  the  constitutional  budget  reserve                                                                    
     fund; and providing for an effective date."                                                                                
                                                                                                                                
SENATE BILL NO. 163                                                                                                           
                                                                                                                                
     "An  Act making  appropriations for  the operating  and                                                                    
     capital    expenses   of    the   state's    integrated                                                                    
     comprehensive  mental  health program;  making  capital                                                                    
     appropriations  and  supplemental  appropriations;  and                                                                    
     providing for an effective date."                                                                                          
                                                                                                                                
9:02:19 AM                                                                                                                    
                                                                                                                                
Co-Chair Bishop moved to adopt  the committee substitute for                                                                    
SB 162, Work Draft 32-GS2686\I (Marx, 2/1/22).                                                                                  
                                                                                                                                
Co-Chair Stedman OBJECTED for discussion.                                                                                       
                                                                                                                                
9:02:43 AM                                                                                                                    
                                                                                                                                
PETE ECKLUND,  STAFF, SENATOR  BERT STEDMAN,  explained that                                                                    
there  had been  various  federal  COVID-19 relief  programs                                                                    
over the two  years. He stated that  the governors  proposed                                                                    
budget  had  used the  different  fund  sources for  various                                                                    
different  operating  items   and  revenue  replacement.  He                                                                    
shared  that the  committee substitute  removed the  federal                                                                    
funds and replaced  them with UGF, in order to  get a better                                                                    
understanding of  the states   annual recurring  revenue and                                                                    
expenses,  and   the  surplus-revenue  situation   would  be                                                                    
without the  federal funds. He  remarked that  the committee                                                                    
had some handouts that  summarized the committee substitutes                                                                    
within a series of spreadsheets.                                                                                                
                                                                                                                                
Co-Chair  Stedman  removed  his objection.  There  being  NO                                                                    
OBJECTION, it was so ordered.                                                                                                   
                                                                                                                                
9:07:19 AM                                                                                                                    
                                                                                                                                
Co-Chair Stedman queried the  difference between the numbers                                                                    
section and the other sections.                                                                                                 
                                                                                                                                
Mr. Ecklund  replied that the numbers  section contained the                                                                    
agency budgets with different  dollar amounts with different                                                                    
fund  sources.   He  stated   that  the   language  sections                                                                    
contained    the   appropriations    that   required    more                                                                    
explanation.                                                                                                                    
                                                                                                                                
Senator   Hoffman  wondered   whether  there   would  be   a                                                                    
discussion of the remaining handouts.                                                                                           
                                                                                                                                
Mr.  Ecklund replied  that Mr.  Painter would  address those                                                                    
items.                                                                                                                          
                                                                                                                                
Co-Chair Stedman shared that the  process was similar to the                                                                    
previous years.  Time was  spent evaluating  and  unpeeling                                                                     
the budget.                                                                                                                     
                                                                                                                                
9:09:56 AM                                                                                                                    
                                                                                                                                
ALEXEI  PAINTER,  DIRECTOR,  LEGISLATIVE  FINANCE  DIVISION,                                                                    
discussed  looked at  Handout B  (copy on  file), which  had                                                                    
some  additional items  that  were along  the  same line  as                                                                    
items  changed within  the committee  substitute. He  shared                                                                    
that  there was  a possibility  that Alaska  would fail  the                                                                    
disparity  test for  K-12, but  was currently  under appeal,                                                                    
which would increase the UGF budget  by $72 million in FY 22                                                                    
and  $74.6 million  in FY  23. There  would not  need to  be                                                                    
changes to  the budgetary  language if  that were  to occur,                                                                    
because  the   budget  amount  had  been   adjusted  to  the                                                                    
necessary formula. He noted that  the item in the Department                                                                    
of Public  Safety (DPS) budget was  a request to add  17 new                                                                    
state trooper  and Alaska state wildlife  trooper positions.                                                                    
He stated that  those requests did not  come with associated                                                                    
funding.  He remarked  that  DPS has  shared  that if  those                                                                    
positions were  actually funded,  there would  be a  cost of                                                                    
$5.1 million.  He stated that the  committee substitute only                                                                    
addressed the  operating budget, so there  was an additional                                                                    
$72 million from  the capital budget and $20  percent in the                                                                    
governors  fast  track supplemental  budget. He  stated that                                                                    
the total  equaled $244  million split across  FY 22  and SY                                                                    
23.                                                                                                                             
                                                                                                                                
Senator Hoffman asked for more  detail of the reason for the                                                                    
disparity test. He also expressed  concerns about whether to                                                                    
consider the $72.3 million into  the budget to have no doubt                                                                    
regarding the disparity test.                                                                                                   
                                                                                                                                
Co-Chair  Stedman also  asked about  potential contingencies                                                                    
in the  event that the appeal  of legal action could  go one                                                                    
way or the other.                                                                                                               
                                                                                                                                
Mr. Painter  explained that the federal  government provided                                                                    
impact aid  to school  districts based on  federal activity,                                                                    
which  could be  military  members or  tribal  land held  in                                                                    
trust  by the  federal  government. He  stated that,  rather                                                                    
than pay  taxes, the federal government  provided impact aid                                                                    
to  districts. He  stated that  there was  also impact  aid,                                                                    
which was  not deductible, for certain  characteristics of a                                                                    
community. He stated  that a portion of  that federal impact                                                                    
aid  could be  deducted against  state aid.  He stated  that                                                                    
Alaska  must have  an  equalized K-12  formula  in order  to                                                                    
deduct the impact aid.                                                                                                          
                                                                                                                                
Senator  Hoffman  wondered  where the  millions  of  dollars                                                                    
would  be spent  if there  was  a failure  of the  disparity                                                                    
test.                                                                                                                           
                                                                                                                                
Mr. Painter  replied that  it would  be spent  as additional                                                                    
state aid to districts that received deductible impact aid.                                                                     
                                                                                                                                
Co-Chair Stedman queried the impact  on the more rural parts                                                                    
of southeast Alaska.                                                                                                            
                                                                                                                                
Mr.  Painter  replied  that some  of  those  areas  received                                                                    
impact aid, and  noted that the vast majority  of impact aid                                                                    
receiving districts were in western Alaska.                                                                                     
                                                                                                                                
9:19:22 AM                                                                                                                    
                                                                                                                                
Co-Chair Stedman  requested a detail of  every district that                                                                    
received impact aid.                                                                                                            
                                                                                                                                
Senator  Wilson  queried  the Department  of  Education  and                                                                    
Early Development (DEED) plan to hear on their appeal.                                                                          
                                                                                                                                
Mr.  Painter  replied  that  DEED   should  know  with  more                                                                    
certainty by the end of the month.                                                                                              
                                                                                                                                
Mr. Painter  noted that  there was not  an inclusion  in the                                                                    
spreadsheet of the capital budget  number, so there may need                                                                    
to be an adjustment of $72 million.                                                                                             
                                                                                                                                
Co-Chair Stedman asked for more explanation on that issue.                                                                      
                                                                                                                                
Mr.  Painter replied  that  without the  revenue-replacement                                                                    
funds, there would be a $500 million deficit.                                                                                   
                                                                                                                                
Co-Chair  Stedman  asked  for a  number  of  the  structural                                                                    
deficit portion.                                                                                                                
                                                                                                                                
Mr. Painter replied that there  needed to be a consideration                                                                    
of how  to categorize the  items in Handout B  when deciding                                                                    
whether there was a structural deficit.                                                                                         
                                                                                                                                
Co-Chair  Stedman  surmised  that  the  actual  deficit  was                                                                    
around $750 million                                                                                                             
                                                                                                                                
Mr. Painter  replied in the affirmative,  but explained that                                                                    
$244 million of that was split between FY 22 and FY 23.                                                                         
                                                                                                                                
Co-Chair  Stedman  felt  that ballpark  numbers  related  to                                                                    
concepts was  important for understanding the  general idea.                                                                    
He surmised that  the number was around $650  million as the                                                                    
deficit.                                                                                                                        
                                                                                                                                
Mr.  Painter replied  in the  affirmative, depending  on the                                                                    
disparity test.                                                                                                                 
                                                                                                                                
Co-Chair Stedman  wondered whether Handout D  (copy on file)                                                                    
was represented in slide format in the presentation.                                                                            
                                                                                                                                
Mr. Painter replied that it  was not outlined in slide form,                                                                    
but stated that it was available on BASIS.                                                                                      
                                                                                                                                
9:29:25 AM                                                                                                                    
                                                                                                                                
Co-Chair  Stedman queried  the impact  of the  Alaska Marine                                                                    
Highway System  (AMHS) on  the Department  of Transportation                                                                    
and Public Facilities (DOT) budget.                                                                                             
                                                                                                                                
Mr.  Painter  replied   that  AMHS  had  zero   UGF  in  the                                                                    
governors   proposal.  He  stated   that  the  governor  had                                                                    
proposed  a  service  level  increase,  so  the  budget  was                                                                    
relatively stable.                                                                                                              
                                                                                                                                
Co-Chair Stedman  wanted to use similar   numerics  with the                                                                    
House, so there was not confusion.                                                                                              
                                                                                                                                
Mr. Painter discussed the presentation, Comparison of                                                                           
Governor's 10-Year Plan to LFD  Baseline  (copy on file). He                                                                    
looked at slide 3, Review of Modeling Baseline:                                                                                 
                                                                                                                                
     ?  Legislative Finance's  fiscal model  is designed  to                                                                    
     show  policy makers  the longer-term  impact of  fiscal                                                                    
     policy decisions.                                                                                                          
     ?  The   baseline  assumptions  are   essentially  that                                                                    
     current  budget  levels  are maintained,  adjusted  for                                                                    
     inflation.  Policy  changes  are then  applied  against                                                                    
     that baseline.                                                                                                             
     ?  Our default  is  to assume  that statutory  formulas                                                                    
     will be followed.                                                                                                          
                                                                                                                                
Mr. Painter addressed slide 4, Review of Modeling Baseline                                                                      
(cont.):                                                                                                                        
                                                                                                                                
     Revenue Assumptions                                                                                                        
     ?   LFD's   baseline   revenue  assumptions   are   the                                                                    
     Department of Revenue's Fall Revenue Forecast.                                                                             
            This assumes $71 oil in FY23, following futures                                                                     
          market thereafter.                                                                                                    
             DNR  oil   production  forecast  projects  that                                                                    
          Alaska North  Slope production will  increase from                                                                    
          500.2 thousand  barrels per day  in FY23  to 586.2                                                                    
          thousand barrels per day in FY31.                                                                                     
     ?  For  the  Permanent  Fund, we  use  Callan's  return                                                                    
     assumption  of 5.86  percent total  return in  FY22 and                                                                    
     6.20 percent thereafter.                                                                                                   
                                                                                                                                
9:36:16 AM                                                                                                                    
                                                                                                                                
Mr. Painter pointed to slide 5,         Review of Modeling                                                                      
Baseline (cont.):                                                                                                               
                                                                                                                                
     Spending Assumptions                                                                                                       
     ?  For agency  operations, these  scenarios assume  the                                                                    
     Governor's  FY23  budget   grows  with  inflation  (2.0                                                                    
     percent).                                                                                                                  
     ? For  statewide items, the  baseline assumes  that all                                                                    
     items  are  funded  to their  statutory  levels  beyond                                                                    
     FY23.                                                                                                                      
            This includes School Debt Reimbursement, the                                                                        
          REAA Fund, Community Assistance, oil and gas tax                                                                      
          credits.                                                                                                              
     ?  For the  capital  budget, we  assume the  Governor's                                                                    
     FY23 capital budget grows with inflation (2.0 percent)                                                                     
     ? For  supplementals we assume $50.0  million per year.                                                                    
     This  is based  on the  average amount  of supplemental                                                                    
     appropriations minus lapsing funds each year.                                                                              
                                                                                                                                
Co-Chair Stedman  queried the definition of   effective POMV                                                                    
draw.                                                                                                                           
                                                                                                                                
Mr. Painter replied  that it was an examination  of the POMV                                                                    
level required to draw from the ERA.                                                                                            
                                                                                                                                
Co-Chair Stedman queried the source of the baseline.                                                                            
                                                                                                                                
Mr.  Painter replied  that  it was  based  on the  statutory                                                                    
dividend,  which  was  approximately $4200  in  the  current                                                                    
year.                                                                                                                           
                                                                                                                                
Senator Hoffman  noted that in FY  23 there was a  CBR draw,                                                                    
but the governor did not have a proposed CBR draw.                                                                              
                                                                                                                                
Mr. Painter stated  that the slide showed  the LFD baseline,                                                                    
and  not   the  governors    budget.  He  stated   that  the                                                                    
governors  budget  did not  have a  statutory dividend  or a                                                                    
CBR draw.                                                                                                                       
                                                                                                                                
9:40:37 AM                                                                                                                    
                                                                                                                                
Mr. Painter looked at slide 7, Governor's 10-Year Plan:                                                                         
                                                                                                                                
     Policy changes in Governor's 10-Year Plan:                                                                                 
     ?  PFD  is  50  percent  of  POMV,  including  an  FY22                                                                    
     supplemental;                                                                                                              
     ? Agency  operations are held  flat in FY24,  then grow                                                                    
     at  1.5 percent  for all  items except  Medicaid, which                                                                    
     grows at 1.0 percent;                                                                                                      
     ?  Beginning  in  FY24, School  Debt  Reimbursement  is                                                                    
     funded at 50 percent, and  the REAA Fund Cap is reduced                                                                    
     to a flat $17.5 million;                                                                                                   
     ?  PERS  and  TRS  health care  contributions  are  not                                                                    
     funded;                                                                                                                    
     ? The capital budget is  held flat with no inflationary                                                                    
     growth, but  a General  Obligation Bond issued  in FY23                                                                    
     increases  debt service  by $22.8  million in  FY24 and                                                                    
     beyond;                                                                                                                    
     ? Supplementals  and lapse are  assumed to  cancel out;                                                                    
     and                                                                                                                        
     ?  Governor   uses  $375.4  million  of   ARPA  revenue                                                                    
     replacement in FY23.                                                                                                       
                                                                                                                                
Senator  Wilson  wondered   whether  the  supplementals  and                                                                    
lapses would cancel each other out.                                                                                             
                                                                                                                                
                                                                                                                                
Mr.  Painter  replied  that  it was  not  common  for  those                                                                    
requests to cancel  out, but not impossible.  He stated that                                                                    
it  was a  goal to  reduce the  regular supplementals,  like                                                                    
investments in fire suppression.                                                                                                
                                                                                                                                
Co-Chair  Stedman  queried  the difference  between  lapsing                                                                    
funds and supplemental requests.                                                                                                
                                                                                                                                
Mr. Painter replied  that lapsing funds were  fund that were                                                                    
unspent money  that had been  appropriated to an  agency, so                                                                    
those  funds were  then  returned to  the  general fund.  He                                                                    
stated  that  the  impact  of the  pandemic  had  caused  an                                                                    
increase  in  lapsed  funds.  He  stated  that  supplemental                                                                    
requests were made  after the initial budget  to increase or                                                                    
decrease the budgeted levels in the current year.                                                                               
                                                                                                                                
9:45:36 AM                                                                                                                    
                                                                                                                                
Senator Olson wondered whether the  American Rescue Plan Act                                                                    
(ARPA)   funds   could   result  in   penalties   if   spent                                                                    
incorrectly.                                                                                                                    
                                                                                                                                
Mr. Painter  replied that  it is  possible for  penalties to                                                                    
occur.  He felt  that  revenue replacement  was most  likely                                                                    
allowable up to the maximum usage.                                                                                              
                                                                                                                                
Co-Chair Bishop remarked that the  1.5 percent growth across                                                                    
agencies for the next ten years was concerning.                                                                                 
                                                                                                                                
9:50:41 AM                                                                                                                    
                                                                                                                                
Mr. Painter looked at slide  8, Mr. Painter pointed to slide                                                                    
8, Comparison of LFD Model to                                                                                                   
Governor's Model:                                                                                                               
                                                                                                                                
     ? Other than policy choices, there is only one                                                                             
     substantive difference in assumptions:                                                                                     
            LFD  adopted an assumption from  the Fiscal Plan                                                                    
          Working Group that  School Bond Debt Reimbursement                                                                    
          will  begin  to add  new  debt  after the  current                                                                    
          moratorium  expires. This  slightly increases  the                                                                    
          baseline for both School Debt and the REAA Fund.                                                                      
     ? Other differences are due to rounding and                                                                                
     presentation differences (for example, OMB includes                                                                        
     fund transfers with statewide items, LFD separates                                                                         
     them).                                                                                                                     
     ?  We   also  have  slightly  different   CBR  starting                                                                    
     balances    LFD will  not update last  year's estimates                                                                    
     until audited  numbers are available, OMB  has slightly                                                                    
     higher estimates based on pre-audit actuals.                                                                               
                                                                                                                                
Senator Wilson wondered whether  the reference was last year                                                                    
or the previous years working group.                                                                                            
                                                                                                                                
Mr. Painter replied that it was the 2021 working group.                                                                         
                                                                                                                                
Co-Chair   Stedman  felt   that  the   committee  had   more                                                                    
experience  than  the  working  group,  except  for  Senator                                                                    
Hoffman.                                                                                                                        
                                                                                                                                
Mr. Painter  stated that  in FY 23  the only  difference was                                                                    
$50 million in  supplementals. He noted that in  FY 24 there                                                                    
was a  larger difference because the  operating budget would                                                                    
be held flat.                                                                                                                   
                                                                                                                                
9:56:14 AM                                                                                                                    
                                                                                                                                
Co-Chair Stedman  asked for more  information about  the low                                                                    
inflation expectation in the projection.                                                                                        
                                                                                                                                
Mr. Painter  stated that the  higher inflation  could result                                                                    
in the unions desiring higher increases.                                                                                        
                                                                                                                                
10:01:01 AM                                                                                                                   
                                                                                                                                
Co-Chair  Stedman  remarked  that  if  inflation  ran  at  4                                                                    
percent,  there   would  be   significant  changes   in  the                                                                    
projection.                                                                                                                     
                                                                                                                                
Mr.  Painter replied  that it  cause  retention issues,  but                                                                    
stressed that it was a policy call.                                                                                             
                                                                                                                                
Mr. Painter  looked at slide  11,  Comparison  of Governor's                                                                    
10-Year Plan to LFD Baseline: Statewide Items.                                                                                  
                                                                                                                                
Mr. Painter addressed slide 12,   LFD Modeling Baseline with                                                                    
50/50 Plan.                                                                                                                     
                                                                                                                                
Co-Chair Stedman wondered whether the  model took the CBR to                                                                    
zero.                                                                                                                           
                                                                                                                                
Mr. Painter replied  that there was a floor  of $500 million                                                                    
in the CBR for cash flow in the presentation.                                                                                   
                                                                                                                                
Co-Chair  Stedman stressed  that the  CBR was  not taken  to                                                                    
zero in the presentation.                                                                                                       
                                                                                                                                
Mr. Painter agreed.                                                                                                             
                                                                                                                                
10:05:38 AM                                                                                                                   
                                                                                                                                
Mr. Painter  pointed to slide  13,  Governor's  10-Year Plan                                                                    
in  LFD  Model.  He  also  addressed  slide 14,   Additional                                                                    
Items to Consider: Should the Baseline Be Higher?                                                                               
                                                                                                                                
     ? Several ongoing items in the Governor's budget are                                                                       
     funded                                                                                                                     
     with short-term federal funds:                                                                                             
            DOC's DNA Tracking program: $1.1 million CSLFRF                                                                     
          (need to be replaced in FY24)                                                                                         
            AMHS: ~$82.0 million in place of UGF from                                                                           
          federal infrastructure bill (need to be replaced                                                                      
          in FY27)                                                                                                              
            DOTPF: $22.4 million of FHWA and FAA funds                                                                          
          (need to be replaced in FY24/25)                                                                                      
     ? The  ARM Board  decision not  to fund  retiree health                                                                    
     care  is backed  out  in LFD's  baseline  only for  the                                                                    
     statewide  item.  It  would also  have  about  a  $15.9                                                                    
     million UGF impact on                                                                                                      
     agency budgets.                                                                                                            
     ? Evergreen Economics projects that the State's                                                                            
     Medicaid share will grow by 4.2 percent without policy                                                                     
     changes.                                                                                                                   
                                                                                                                                
Co-Chair Stedman  shared that there  had been work  with OMB                                                                    
to ensure that the math was the same within all modeling.                                                                       
                                                                                                                                
Mr.  Painter  stated that  the  baseline  of the  governors                                                                     
budget gave a clean starting point.                                                                                             
                                                                                                                                
10:10:37 AM                                                                                                                   
                                                                                                                                
Mr.  Painter  looked  at  slide  15,   Additional  Items  to                                                                    
Consider: Should the Baseline Be Higher? (Cont.)                                                                                
                                                                                                                                
Senator Wilson  surmised that the Department  of Corrections                                                                    
(DOC) item was  because of a backlog and  should be absorbed                                                                    
into existing work.                                                                                                             
                                                                                                                                
Mr.  Painter  replied  that   the  responsibility  would  be                                                                    
ongoing.                                                                                                                        
                                                                                                                                
Senator  Wilson thought  that the  funding was  required for                                                                    
addressing the backlog, and not for future work.                                                                                
                                                                                                                                
Co-Chair  Stedman looked  at FY  26 and  noted that,  taking                                                                    
away AMHS, there was a  negative of $317.8 million. He asked                                                                    
for more information on that issue.                                                                                             
                                                                                                                                
Mr. Painter  stated that the governors   ten-year plan began                                                                    
to balance in FY 26.                                                                                                            
                                                                                                                                
10:16:54 AM                                                                                                                   
                                                                                                                                
HUNTER BELL,  FISCAL ANALYST, LEGISLATIVE  FINANCE DIVISION,                                                                    
looked at slide 16, Probabilistic Modeling:                                                                                     
                                                                                                                                
     ? LFD  developed a probabilistic  model to  enhance our                                                                    
     modeling capability.  Unlike the Callan model,  it is a                                                                    
     complete fiscal  model with the  budget and  revenue as                                                                    
     well as the Permanent Fund.                                                                                                
            Results for Permanent Fund scenarios are                                                                            
         similar to what Callan's model produces.                                                                               
     ?  Runs  2,000  trials  with  varying  assumptions  for                                                                    
     Permanent   Fund   earnings,   oil  prices,   and   oil                                                                    
     production.                                                                                                                
     ?  Assumes LFD  baseline budget,  with only  PFD amount                                                                    
     changing by scenario.                                                                                                      
     ?  APFC 6.2  percent average  return with  13.2 percent                                                                    
     annualized standard deviation.                                                                                             
     ?  Average  oil  price   equals  DOR's  fall  forecast.                                                                    
     Applies  standard deviation  equal to  34 percent  of a                                                                    
     given year's average price.                                                                                                
     ?  LFD can  run  additional scenarios  as requested  by                                                                    
     legislators and staff                                                                                                      
                                                                                                                                
10:20:02 AM                                                                                                                   
                                                                                                                                
Co-Chair  Stedman   noted  that  there  was   interest  from                                                                    
committee members to  move money from the ERA,  which took a                                                                    
simple majority vote to spend.                                                                                                  
                                                                                                                                
Mr. Bell looked at slide 17, Stress Test: Statutory PFD.                                                                        
                                                                                                                                
Co-Chair  Bishop wondered  whether the  slide represented  a                                                                    
full  year for  the price  of oil,  and whether  it factored                                                                    
into the prior years funding.                                                                                                   
                                                                                                                                
Mr. Bell replied in the affirmative.                                                                                            
                                                                                                                                
Co-Chair  Stedman  requested  numbers related  to  the  mean                                                                    
deficit.                                                                                                                        
                                                                                                                                
Mr. Bell agreed to provide that information                                                                                     
                                                                                                                                
10:25:31 AM                                                                                                                   
                                                                                                                                
Mr. Bell looked  at slide 18,  Stress Test:  50 percent POMV                                                                    
to PFD.                                                                                                                         
                                                                                                                                
Co-Chair Stedman queried the price of oil on the low end.                                                                       
                                                                                                                                
Mr. Bell replied that the  maximum value oil represented was                                                                    
$120  per barrel,  because of  data  limitations. He  stated                                                                    
that, once oil got to $100  a barrel, the revenue was double                                                                    
what it  would be at  $50 per barrel,  which was why  it was                                                                    
non-linear.  He  noted  production also  had  a  significant                                                                    
impact.                                                                                                                         
                                                                                                                                
Co-Chair Stedman  stressed that there  needed to be  a broad                                                                    
scope of the various oil prices.                                                                                                
                                                                                                                                
10:30:03 AM                                                                                                                   
                                                                                                                                
Mr.  Bell looked  at slide  19,  Stress  Test: $1,100/person                                                                    
PFD.                                                                                                                            
                                                                                                                                
Co-Chair  Stedman stressed  that  there was  support for  an                                                                    
absolute floor of a $1100 PFD.                                                                                                  
                                                                                                                                
10:34:16 AM                                                                                                                   
                                                                                                                                
Mr. Bell looked  at slide 20,  Probability  of ERA Shortfall                                                                    
by PFD Scenario.                                                                                                                
                                                                                                                                
Co-Chair Stedman  felt that the  committee would not  tie up                                                                    
the ERA to the point that there would not be a PFD.                                                                             
                                                                                                                                
Senator  Wielechowski noted  that  the deficit  with a  full                                                                    
statutory PFD was roughly equal  to the amount of deductible                                                                    
oil tax credits that the state was giving yearly.                                                                               
                                                                                                                                
Co-Chair Stedman stated that there would be an analysis of                                                                      
how the oil basin revenue flowed through the tax structure.                                                                     
                                                                                                                                
SB 162 was HEARD and HELD in committee for further                                                                              
consideration.                                                                                                                  
                                                                                                                                
SB 163 was HEARD and HELD in committee for further                                                                              
consideration.                                                                                                                  
                                                                                                                                
ADJOURNMENT                                                                                                                   
10:45:17 AM                                                                                                                   
                                                                                                                                
The meeting was adjourned at 10:45 a.m.                                                                                         

Document Name Date/Time Subjects
020322 LFD SFIN Presentation 2-3-22.pdf SFIN 2/3/2022 9:00:00 AM
SB 162 FY15-23 Baseline w 3 Gov Terms 2-22-2022.pdf SFIN 2/3/2022 9:00:00 AM
SB 162
SB 162 Short Fiscal Summary Senate Baseline.pdf SFIN 2/3/2022 9:00:00 AM
SB 162
SB 162 Additional Items Not in CS 0.5.pdf SFIN 2/3/2022 9:00:00 AM
SB 162
SB 162 Senate UGF Baseline Summary.pdf SFIN 2/3/2022 9:00:00 AM
SB 162
SB 162 2-1-22 SB 162 work draft Version I (CS 0.5).pdf SFIN 2/3/2022 9:00:00 AM
SB 162