Legislature(2021 - 2022)BUTROVICH 205
04/26/2021 09:00 AM Senate EDUCATION
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| Audio | Topic |
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| Start | |
| Presentation: "projecting Alaska's Education Needs" by the Department of Labor and Workforce Development | |
| Adjourn |
* first hearing in first committee of referral
+ teleconferenced
= bill was previously heard/scheduled
+ teleconferenced
= bill was previously heard/scheduled
ALASKA STATE LEGISLATURE
SENATE EDUCATION STANDING COMMITTEE
April 26, 2021
9:06 a.m.
MEMBERS PRESENT
Senator Roger Holland, Chair
Senator Shelley Hughes
Senator Peter Micciche
Senator Tom Begich
MEMBERS ABSENT
Senator Gary Stevens, Vice Chair
COMMITTEE CALENDAR
PRESENTATION: "PROJECTING ALASKA'S EDUCATION NEEDS" BY THE
DEPARTMENT OF LABOR AND WORKFORCE DEVELOPMENT
- HEARD
PREVIOUS COMMITTEE ACTION
No previous action to record
WITNESS REGISTER
DAN ROBINSON, Research Chief
Labor Research and Analysis
Department of Labor and Workforce Development (DOLWD)
Juneau, Alaska
POSITION STATEMENT: Delivered a PowerPoint on Alaska's Education
Needs.
LOUISE DEAN, Executive Director
Alaska Workforce Investment Board (AWIB)
Department of Labor and Workforce Development (DOLWD)
Anchorage, Alaska
POSITION STATEMENT: Delivered a PowerPoint on Department of
Labor Programs.
ACTION NARRATIVE
9:06:59 AM
CHAIR ROGER HOLLAND called the Senate Education Standing
Committee meeting to order at 9:06 a.m. Present at the call to
order were Senators Hughes and Chair Holland. Senators Begich
and Micciche arrived shortly thereafter.
^Presentation: "Projecting Alaska's Education Needs" by the
Department of Labor and Workforce Development
Presentation: "Projecting Alaska's Education Needs" by the
Department of Labor and Workforce Development
9:07:39 AM
CHAIR HOLLAND announced the business before the committee would
be a presentation "Projecting Alaska's Education Needs" by the
Department of Labor and Workforce Development.
He stated that the purpose of the hearing is to identify any
gaps in the current system.
9:09:26 AM
DAN ROBINSON, Research Chief, Labor Research and Analysis,
Department of Labor and Workforce Development (DOLWD), Juneau,
Alaska, delivered a PowerPoint on Alaska's Education Needs on
school-age population projections, labor projections and DOLWD's
partnership with the Department of Education and Early
Development (DEED), the University of Alaska (UA), the Alaska
Commission on Postsecondary Education (ACPE) and the Alaska
Mental Health Trust Authority.
9:10:42 AM
MR. ROBINSON reviewed slide 2, Alaska's school-age population,
1980-2010, depicting a line graph that shows that the school-age
enrollment peaked in 2000 and has decreased by 10,000 students
in the last 20 years. He offered to elaborate on the reasons for
the decline.
SENATOR HUGHES asked whether the data was also broken down
regionally by communities. She asked whether some areas were
breaking the trend.
MR. ROBINSON responded that slide 4 will cover the population
trends. He commented that the Mat-Su Borough is the only place
that bucks the trend.
9:13:52 AM
MR. ROBINSON reviewed slide 3, projected school-age population,
2020-49, consisting of line graph projections. The red dotted
line represents the high-case, the blue solid line the mid-
range, and the green line the low-case projections. First, the
projections vary because the future is unknown. The demographics
were produced in April 2020. Even the long-term projections are
done every two years and the midline already looks too
optimistic. He explained that due to recent history, birth rates
and negative net migration among family-age residents, the blue
line should be lower.
9:15:17 AM
SENATOR BEGICH stated that the next projection would be made in
April 2022. He stated that every 10,000 people represents
approximately $25 million. For example, this year the total Base
Student Allocation was adjusted down by $25 million. He asked
what assumptions were used for the low-case projection as shown
by the green-dotted line.
MR. ROBINSON answered that the biggest difference was the
assumptions used for migration. Alaska has experienced negative
net migration for eight consecutive years, which is
unprecedented. Prior to this, the state has not experienced a
period of more than four consecutive years of negative net
migration.
9:16:44 AM
SENATOR BEGICH asked what assumptions were made for net
migration for the green dotted line.
MR. ROBINSON offered his belief that the assumption used for the
green dotted line was negative .1 percent. The blue line used
negative 7 to reflect recent history. However, it was put back
to historical averages, which was negative .1 percent. He
offered to double check the assumptions and report back any
discrepancies. He pointed out that the green line was not out of
the realm of possibility because the eight consecutive years of
negative net migration has never previously happened. However,
in the late 80s the state experienced four consecutive years of
negative net migration. He anticipated that since nothing else
has changed, the state would add a ninth consecutive negative
net migration year in 2021.
9:17:55 AM
CHAIR HOLLAND pointed out that the projections for 2050 show the
low case projections, reflected by the dotted green line would
bring the state's population down to the 1980 population level
as the worst-case scenario.
9:18:15 AM
MR. ROBINSON answered it was a little higher than the 1980
population. However, he cautioned that while the projections
look smooth, the reality is that the actuals will not be smooth.
He suggested members should not put much emphasis on the
specific low or high point projections except as a reminder that
the future is unknown. He said any actions taken will affect the
future.
9:18:47 AM
SENATOR MICCICHE directed attention back to slide 2. He pointed
out that the state's population has been steady or falling since
the mid-90s. He asked whether the population would normalize at
some point. He recalled that the state has been in boom and bust
periods. He asked whether there were other states that
continually experience declining population. He asked if the
chart spanned from the 1950 to 2020, whether the chart would
reflect more of a roller coaster effect.
9:20:02 AM
MR. ROBINSON remarked that Alaska is fascinating. He said Alaska
is the third youngest state in terms of population. This means
Alaska is going through some things that other states went
through a long time ago. For example, Alaska had the early
statehood pre-oil period, then the 70s and 80s boom and bust,
followed by a remarkable 20 year period of less boom and bust.
In fact, Alaska did not experience some national recessions. He
cautioned against assuming any normalization of the trend lines.
He emphasized that there are usually fairly specific reasons for
growth or no-growth periods. Typically, this relates to the
number of jobs the state economy produces during that time.
9:21:26 AM
MR. ROBINSON stated that this slide 4 reviews a Trends March
2020 article that reviews the details of population trends for
school-age children. He pointed out that Mat-Su is the only
borough whose population has grown since 2000. This article
provides substantial information to answer some of the questions
Senator Hughes raised.
9:22:41 AM
SENATOR HUGHES asked if the increase was a general increase in
the school-age population or if this was due to a greater
concentration of children in Mat-Su families. Further, she
related that she heard anecdotally that a number of families are
not happy with the Anchorage School District. Thus, she
anticipates that more families will be moving to the Mat-Su
Borough (MSB).
9:23:45 AM
MR. ROBINSON responded that the department has detailed age-
based population estimates. He was unsure if the data shows a
specific age concentration in the Mat-Su that differs from the
statewide trends. The main thing affecting Mat-Su growth is
housing, he said. In addition, the Mat-Su Borough understands
its relationship and connection to the Anchorage job market
since a large percentage of residents work in Anchorage or on
the North Slope. He reported that Mat-Su unemployment claims
have gone up. He cautioned against thinking of MSB as an island
since it is affected by what happens in the rest of state.
9:25:22 AM
SENATOR HUGHES asked the department to track the Mat-Su trends.
9:25:38 AM
MR. ROBINSON pointed out that Mat-Su has less expensive housing
and more available land. Since Anchorage has limited options for
land, families in particular are attracted to lower-cost
housing.
9:26:04 AM
SENATOR BEGICH commented that the Anchorage School District
(ASD) has done a remarkable job under a former Mat-Su
superintendent. In fact, ASD's graduation rate has improved to
nearly 90 percent. He acknowledged that the cost of housing is
ridiculous. For example, a small house in his district sold for
$500,000, which is certainly not affordable.
9:26:54 AM
SENATOR HUGHES stated that part of her district is in ASD. She
acknowledged the district has excellent teachers. She said she
heard from realtors that some families are moving out.
9:27:09 AM
SENATOR MICCICHE remarked that the Kenai Peninsula Borough
School District outperforms Anchorage and Mat-Su. He offered his
view that Mr. Robinson's point is that the Kenai Peninsula is
140 miles from Anchorage. The Mat-Su Valley is in close
proximity to Anchorage. The growth in the Mat-Su Valley is not
only related to the quality of life. He said he reads the
monthly Alaska Economic Trends. He asked how the state can turn
the trend around. The economics of education are difficult when
the population is decreasing. He asked if the Department of
Labor and Workforce Development (DOLWD) evaluates factors that
could improve outcomes to remain flat at worst or possibly enjoy
economic growth in the future.
MR. ROBINSON responded that economists have studied what is
driving the net migration trend. He identified the perception
about the state's instability as the leading cause for net
migration. People move from Alaska for a variety of reasons but
families with children in K-12, in particular, are attuned to
the quality of schools, the cost of living and crime. When
teachers experience job uncertainty and face layoffs and the
state contemplates budget cuts to its university, it leads to
uncertainty.
9:30:44 AM
MR. ROBINSON turned to slide 5, ten-year industry and occupation
projections. He explained that the department assesses long-term
industry and occupational projections. DOLWD's Alaska
Occupational Forecast website is the most visited one, which he
hoped was because the information is useful to schools and
training programs. The forecast focus is on trends in
occupations so training programs can be tweaked. He said it is
more important to focus on 2028 projections than to review what
happened in 2018 due to the effects of COVID-19 on the
projections. He anticipated that the long-term effects of COVID
are unknown. He suggested that people's tendency is to
exaggerate COVID-19 effects. The pandemic probably accelerated
existing trends, he said.
9:32:41 AM
MR. ROBINSON turned to slide 6, "Which jobs will be especially
good?" He directed attention to the heading of growth,
separation and total openings under the average annual openings
2018-28. People want to focus on emerging occupations and which
ones are growing, but by far the largest number of job openings
occur due to separations. Separations occur when people retire,
decide to do something else, or move. Slides 6-7 show jobs with
higher than average growth and earnings. He directed attention
to the information in the Trends reports:
https://live.laborstats.alaska.gov; and on DOLWD's website.
9:34:20 AM
SENATOR BEGICH commented that the U.S. Census Bureau will
announce its figures. He asked if DOLWD will do a reset of its
numbers based on the U.S. Census counts or if the department
maintains separate figures.
MR. ROBINSON responded that DOLWD's demographic unit works
closely with the U.S. Census on population figures. For the
occupational data DOLWD has Alaska-specific data that is more
comprehensive and detailed than what comes from the U.S. Census
Bureau. Employers are required to file quarterly contribution
reports under state unemployment insurance laws that include
worker occupations.
9:35:43 AM
SENATOR MICCICHE estimated that the mean was 4.5 percent based
on his quick scan of the columns. He said that seems higher than
the mid-case scenario for the school-age population. He
elaborated that the highest increases appeared to be from the
construction trades. He pointed out that those two things don't
seem to fit.
9:36:15 AM
MR. ROBINSON answered that those were figured separately. He
stated that the overall growth rate is 5.5 percent so there is
some growth. The DOLWD does not try to reconcile them with any
precision. Instead, the department broadly discusses these with
the economist who tracks the job numbers and population with the
demographers to make sure that their assumptions were not wildly
different or drawing different conclusions from the large data
sets. However, part of what would reconcile the lack of growth
in school-age population in the projections and the slight
growth less than a percent a year over a ten-year period is the
age structure. First, the school-age population does not work.
Second, the data sets are different. However, he is on to
something because one of them will eventually be a little more
accurate than the other. Job holders with children will create
an increase in the school-age population.
9:37:47 AM
CHAIR HOLLAND noted these presentations are available on BASIS
under the Senate Education Committee meeting of 4/26/21.
9:38:10 AM
MR. ROBINSON turned to slides 8-9, "A few examples of how we
work with DEED and UA." He explained that the department works
closely with the Department of Education and Early Development
(DEED) and the University of Alaska (UA). These slides show that
DOLWD can track a student population and identify whether the
high school graduates reside in Alaska and if so, where they are
working. He explained that Alaska is data rich partly because
people apply for permanent fund dividends (PFDs), which
identifies Alaska residents still living in Alaska. The pie
changes on slide 8 illustrate the information DOLWD can
identify, including which students complete their education in
Alaska or elsewhere.
9:39:36 AM
SENATOR BEGICH related that the PFD forms do not ask about
education levels. He asked how DOLWD obtains the information. He
directed attention to the pie chart on page 8 that shows 17
percent was unknown but the pie chart for 2015 doesn't include
them. Instead, it breaks out the students enrolled in college or
working.
MR. ROBINSON agreed that he is correct that the department does
not know where everyone is located. He explained that DOLWD
matches graduates to Alaska wage data and students enrolled or
graduating from the University of Alaska. The department does
not have the ability to track students who leave Alaska who are
not enrolled in a college in the Lower 48.
9:41:39 AM
SENATOR BEGICH related his understanding that the 2015 pie chart
reports on the known status of the 2005 graduates.
MR. ROBINSON acknowledged that there is a group of unknowns from
2005 who disappear from the 2015 pie chart.
9:42:40 AM
SENATOR HUGHES asked whether DOLWD could break out the graduates
who are working in 2005 and reflect the types of jobs and wages
for these high school graduates in 2015.
MR. ROBINSON responded that the department could provide a lot
of detailed information about the types of jobs and wages the
2005 high school graduates hold in 2015 for residents. DOLWD
could identify graduates if they are in Alaska and applied for
PFDs. The department does not have information on whether they
receive public assistance.
9:44:01 AM
MR. ROBINSON said slide 9 highlights a few examples of DOLWD's
work with DEED and UA to answer basic questions about their
programs. The left side of slide 9 shows the University of
Alaska (UA) graduates that work in the oil and gas industry. He
directed attention to the "Process Tech" column. He stated that
89 percent of the graduates of that program showed up in the
Alaska workforce within a year. This provides data for nine
university programs. He directed attention to the right-hand
column that showed 93.5 percent of working college graduates are
Alaska residents. He emphasized that people who receive their
education in Alaska and are hired for jobs in Alaska, are far
more likely to remain Alaska residents. Alaska has always had
high wage jobs but about 30 percent of high wage jobs in gas and
oil are held by nonresidents. He emphasized that the oil and gas
industry is a worldwide industry and Alaska has a relatively
small population. He said if the state cares about maximizing
the benefits for Alaska, it makes sense to educate its workers
in Alaska.
9:46:15 AM
SENATOR BEGICH commented the last set of slides that show
collaboration will be useful for a number of bills. He commended
Mr. Robinson for tracking that data.
MR. ROBINSON responded that he enjoys hearing that the
information is useful and used by policy makers.
9:46:56 AM
SENATOR MICCICHE asked if DOLWD has ever considered conducting
exit surveys for people leaving the state. He said his general
sense is that the state would like the current population to
remain as residents. Many of these people are productive
residents but they see greater opportunities elsewhere. He asked
Mr. Robinson whether he has any ideas for the legislature about
how to keep some of the "best and brightest" in the state.
MR. ROBINSON responded that the U.S. Census has some data on why
people move. He reported that it is not that there is a big
decrease in people leaving since those figure have declined in
the last five years but the number of people coming to the state
has declined much more. He offered his view that something
changed in the last eight years that made Alaska less attractive
to newcomers.
9:49:00 AM
LOUISE DEAN, Executive Director, Alaska Workforce Investment
Board (AWIB), Department of Labor and Workforce Development
(DOLWD), Anchorage, Alaska, stated the PowerPoint would
highlight the many state and federal grant programs AWIB
oversees. She said AWIB is the lead state workforce development
agency. The board oversees the training programs in the state.
9:49:44 AM
MS. DEAN paraphrased slide 2, State Funded Training Programs,
which read:
The State Training and Employment Program (STEP)
• STEP funded by a % of employee contributions to
unemployment insurance training fund.
• Training providers apply for STEP funding through
a competitive process.
• In FY 21 there were 35 STEP grantees with a total
award of $5,512,765.
Alaska Construction Academy (ACA)
• The construction academies are funded by general
fund dollars determined by the legislature.
• In FY 21 there were 8 construction academies with
a total award of $1,754,542.
Alaska Technical and Vocational Education Program
(TVEP)
• The percentage awarded to recipients is
determined by the legislature and is in statute.
• In FY21 there were seven TVEP recipients with a
total award amount of $4,350,000. (The board
receives seven of 10 awards.)
MS. DEAN said the three grantees are not administered through
AWIB: the University of Alaska, Southwest Alaska Vocational and
Education Center (SAVEC) and the Alaska Vocational Technical
Center (AVTEC) but receive direct allocations.
9:51:57 AM
MS. DEAN presented slide 3, Federally Funded Training Programs:
Workforce Innovation and Opportunity Act (WIOA) Youth
Program
• Providers receive funding through a competitive
grant process.
• In FY21 there were 13 WIOA Youth providers.
• The amount of the awards totaled $3,736,854.
National Emergency Dislocated Worker Program
• In FY21 the NEG provided $767,104 in recovery
funds in response to the November 2018
earthquake.
Statewide Projects Program
• Alaska Works Partnership Inc. Helmets to
Hardhats.
• Alaska Coalition on Housing and Homelessness
• The FY21 funding amount was $450,000
MS. DEAN highlighted that the Helmets to Hardhats program is
designed to help veterans. The Coalition on Housing and
Homelessness focus is on at-risk youth.
9:53:25 AM
MS. DEAN presented slide 4, Apprenticeship, which read:
The American Apprenticeship Initiative (AAI)
• Grant funds are used to expand healthcare
sponsorship and provide pre-apprenticeship
training funds.
• To date Apprenticeship Specialists have signed
over 90 healthcare sponsors and registered over
650 apprentices in 17 healthcare occupations.
• Total grant award $2,999,999.
The State Apprenticeship Expansion (SAE)
• The grant focus is to support integrated,
statewide apprenticeship strategies and state
capacity to engage industry and meet demand for
new programs in both traditional industries.
Total grant award $1,867,586.
Apprenticeship State Expansion (ASE)
• The purpose of this grant is to integrate
construction Registered Apprenticeship Programs
(RAP) into the state workforce development
system.
• Total grant award is $1,000,000.
MS. DEAN reviewed the three apprenticeship programs AWIB
administers: AAI, SAE, and ASE.
9:54:43 AM
SENATOR HUGHES asked about the National Emergency Dislocated
Worker Program related to the earthquake. She asked whether
there any grant funds for workers affected by the pandemic and
government requirements [under the disaster declarations.]
MS. DEAN answered no. There are grant opportunities for states
to apply for retraining but there have not been any national
emergency grants.
9:55:46 AM
SENATOR HUGHES asked whether the state is applying for grants
for those who were impacted by the pandemic, suffered job losses
and need retraining.
9:55:59 AM
MS. DEAN answered yes. She said she applied for an
apprenticeship grant that will help people affected by COVID,
who need retraining and are out of work. If the department
receives it the start date is July 1, 2021.
MS. DEAN showed a map of Regional Training Centers on slide 5.
MS. DEAN stated that anyone can go to the 12 job centers for
referrals and for training. For areas with no physical location
services are performed via teleconference and video. She
highlighted that job centers are currently closed to the public
because of COVID but the department is working to reopen them.
9:58:01 AM
SENATOR BEGICH tallied a total of $42.5 million for the annual
grant program amount. He said it seems substantive. He asked how
many individuals access those grant funds.
9:58:44 AM
MS. DEAN offered to provide that information to the committee.
SENATOR BEGICH said he was just curious.
9:59:19 AM
MS. DEAN showed a map of the regional training centers on slide
6, which listed the centers as follows:
1. Alaska Technical Center
2. AVTEC
3. Delta Career Advancement Center
4. Fairbanks Pipeline Training Center
5. Galena Interior Learning Academy
6. NACTEC - Northwestern Alaska Career and Technical
Center
7. North Slope Training and Education Cooperative
8. SAVEC Southwest Alaska Vocational Education
Center
9. SE Alaska Career Center
• UA Workforce Programs
10. Yuut Elitnaurviat - Peoples Learning Center
She directed attention to the red dots that show the satellite
locations of the University of Alaska Workforce programs.
MS. DEAN showed a pie chart on slide 7 that showed the
percentage and amount of FY 21 AWIB Training Grants
10:00:55 AM
MS. DEAN displayed slide 8, Alaska Vocational Technical
Education Center (AVTEC) at a Glance, which read:
[Original Punctuation provided.]
• A division of the DOLWD.
• Provides postsecondary CTE (vocational education)
since 1969.
• Employer driven.
• Relevant training for Alaska jobs.
• Five year average, over 90% student completion.
• 90% placement and employment.
• Ranked in top 1% nation wide for best return on
investment.
MS DEAN said AVTEC is located in Seward. It has provided
vocational education training since 1969. The program is
employer driven and has a 90 percent completion rate over a
five-year average, with 90 percent job placement. She reported
that AVTEC was just ranked in the top 1 percent nationwide for
the best return on investment.
10:02:01 AM
CHAIR HOLLAND shared that he was fortunate to go to AVTEC for a
U.S. Coast Guard visit. He used a simulator to try to dock a
cargo ship.
10:02:24 AM
SENATOR HUGHES commended AVTEC on doing a great job. She asked
whether there is room for improvement in the other nine training
centers.
MS. DEAN offered to provide a report that shows completion
rates. She stated that AVTEC is the leader in outcomes.
CHAIR HOLLAND commented that it was hard to compare other
programs to AVTEC.
10:03:08 AM
SENATOR HUGHES offered her belief that AVTEC is probably the
"gold standard" based on these statistics. She asked whether
there was any way to discover the keys to AVTEC's success and
replicate them in other training centers in the state.
MS. DEAN stated that AVTEC has been doing this a long time. One
of the main reasons for success is its involvement and
connection to the community and employers. She stated that AVTEC
is able to meet employer needs. Other vocational centers in the
state are also excellent, she said.
10:04:23 AM
SENATOR HUGHES offered her belief that it would be a good
project to identify best practices used at AVTEC and apply them
to other training centers. She urged DOLWD to consider this.
10:04:56 AM
SENATOR MICCICHE stated that AVTEC is in his district. He
offered his belief that a lot of AVTEC's success is their
partnership with industries. AVTEC trains people for real jobs.
For example, when large ships were being brought to Seward, the
community considered numerous maritime academies but the
training was available in Seward. He characterized what AVTEC
can do as phenomenal. He said the key to AVTEC's success is that
it works with the construction industry to identify the
necessary skills. He recalled that UA has had similar success
with some of their technical programs. He was not sure if the
department conducts a survey periodically to figure out the
curriculum. It seems that is what happens at AVTEC. He asked if
he was capturing that accurately.
10:06:38 AM
MS. DEAN answered that he did. She explained that AVTEC works
with other industries to provide training and apprenticeship
programs needed in state. One area AVTEC is working on is
developing an information technology program.
10:07:17 AM
SENATOR HUGHES commented that the reason AVTEC is so successful
seems to be due to its partnerships with industry. She asked
whether part of the criteria for grantees is that they partner
with industry to develop the curriculum.
10:07:55 AM
MS. DEAN explained when training providers apply for grant
funding, AWIB's review panel considers whether the grant in in
line with AWIB's priorities. She highlighted that AWIB has
several training plans for health care, maritime, mining, career
and technical education and other industries. She said
applicants were made aware of the state's training priorities.
10:09:26 AM
There being no further business to come before the committee,
Chair Holland adjourned the Senate Education Standing Committee
meeting at 10:09 a.m.
| Document Name | Date/Time | Subjects |
|---|---|---|
| 4.26.2021 SEDC presentation (research).pdf |
SEDC 4/26/2021 9:00:00 AM |
|
| 4.26.2021 SEDC presentation (CTE).pdf |
SEDC 4/26/2021 9:00:00 AM |
|
| tvep_sfy2020.pdf |
SEDC 4/26/2021 9:00:00 AM |
|
| TPPR FY19.pdf |
SEDC 4/26/2021 9:00:00 AM |
|
| Grant funded training programs total funding and number of participants served.docx |
SEDC 4/26/2021 9:00:00 AM |