Legislature(2025 - 2026)GRUENBERG 120

03/18/2025 03:15 PM House STATE AFFAIRS

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03:19:54 PM Start
03:21:04 PM Overview(s): 2025 Spring Revenue Forecast
04:05:12 PM Overview(s): 2021 Comprehensive Fiscal Policy Working Group Recommendations
05:09:07 PM Adjourn
* first hearing in first committee of referral
+ teleconferenced
= bill was previously heard/scheduled
+ Overviews: TELECONFERENCED
- 2025 Spring Revenue Forecast by Alexi Painter,
Director, Legislative Finance Division
- 2021 Comprehensive Fiscal Policy Working Group
Recommendations by Jonathan Kreiss-Tomkins,
Former Representative
*+ HB 114 PERMANENT FUND, PERM FUND DIVIDENDS TELECONFERENCED
Scheduled but Not Heard
+ Bills Previously Heard/Scheduled TELECONFERENCED
                    ALASKA STATE LEGISLATURE                                                                                  
             HOUSE STATE AFFAIRS STANDING COMMITTEE                                                                           
                         March 18, 2025                                                                                         
                           3:19 p.m.                                                                                            
                                                                                                                                
                             DRAFT                                                                                            
                                                                                                                                
MEMBERS PRESENT                                                                                                               
                                                                                                                                
Representative Ashley Carrick, Chair                                                                                            
Representative Andi Story, Vice Chair                                                                                           
Representative Rebecca Himschoot                                                                                                
Representative Ky Holland                                                                                                       
Representative Sarah Vance                                                                                                      
Representative Kevin McCabe                                                                                                     
Representative Elexie Moore                                                                                                     
                                                                                                                                
MEMBERS ABSENT                                                                                                                
                                                                                                                                
All members present                                                                                                             
                                                                                                                                
COMMITTEE CALENDAR                                                                                                            
                                                                                                                                
OVERVIEW(S): 2025 SPRING REVENUE FORECAST                                                                                       
                                                                                                                                
     - HEARD                                                                                                                    
                                                                                                                                
OVERVIEW(S):   2021  COMPREHENSIVE  FISCAL  POLICY WORKING  GROUP                                                               
RECOMMENDATIONS                                                                                                                 
                                                                                                                                
     - HEARD                                                                                                                    
                                                                                                                                
HOUSE BILL NO. 114                                                                                                              
"An  Act  relating to  the  Alaska  permanent fund;  relating  to                                                               
permanent fund  dividends; relating  to the  use of  state income                                                               
from  mineral lease  rentals, royalties,  royalty sale  proceeds,                                                               
federal  mineral  revenue  sharing  payments,  and  bonuses  from                                                               
mineral  leases; relating  to contributions  from permanent  fund                                                               
dividends to the  general and permanent funds;  and providing for                                                               
an effective date."                                                                                                             
                                                                                                                                
     - SCHEDULED BUT NOT HEARD                                                                                                  
                                                                                                                                
PREVIOUS COMMITTEE ACTION                                                                                                     
                                                                                                                                
No previous action to record                                                                                                    
                                                                                                                                
WITNESS REGISTER                                                                                                              
                                                                                                                                
ALEXI PAINTER, Director                                                                                                         
Legislative Finance Division                                                                                                    
Legislative Agencies and Offices                                                                                                
Juneau, Alaska                                                                                                                  
POSITION  STATEMENT:    Gave the  2025  Spring  Revenue  Forecast                                                             
overview.                                                                                                                       
                                                                                                                                
JONATHAN KREISS-TOMKINS, Former Representative                                                                                  
Sitka, Alaska                                                                                                                   
POSITION STATEMENT:   Gave the  2021 Comprehensive  Fiscal Policy                                                             
Working Group Recommendations overview.                                                                                         
                                                                                                                                
SENATOR MIKE SHOWER                                                                                                             
Alaska State Legislature                                                                                                        
Juneau, Alaska                                                                                                                  
POSITION   STATEMENT:     Provided   comment   during  the   2021                                                             
Comprehensive   Fiscal  Policy   Working  Group   Recommendations                                                               
overview.                                                                                                                       
                                                                                                                                
ACTION NARRATIVE                                                                                                              
                                                                                                                                
3:19:54 PM                                                                                                                    
                                                                                                                                
CHAIR  ASHLEY CARRICK  called the  House  State Affairs  Standing                                                             
Committee meeting to  order at 3:19 p.m.   Representatives Vance,                                                               
Holland, Himschoot, Story,  and Carrick were present  at the call                                                               
to  order.   Representatives  McCabe  and  Moore arrived  as  the                                                               
meeting was in progress.                                                                                                        
                                                                                                                                
^OVERVIEW(S): 2025 Spring Revenue Forecast                                                                                      
           OVERVIEW(S): 2025 Spring Revenue Forecast                                                                        
                                                                                                                                
3:21:04 PM                                                                                                                    
                                                                                                                                
CHAIR CARRICK  announced that the  first order of  business would                                                               
be the 2025 Spring Revenue Forecast.                                                                                            
                                                                                                                                
3:21:22 PM                                                                                                                    
                                                                                                                                
ALEXI   PAINTER,   Director,    Legislative   Finance   Division,                                                               
Legislative Agencies  and Offices, began the  2025 Spring Revenue                                                               
Forecast overview  via a  PowerPoint [hard  copy included  in the                                                               
committee  file],  titled  "State   of  Alaska  Fiscal  Outlook."                                                               
Following the  title slide, he moved  to slide 2, which  showed a                                                               
graph  of various  revenue streams  in  the undesignated  general                                                               
fund (UGF)  from fiscal year  2014 (FY 14)  to FY 25:   Petroleum                                                               
Revenue;  Non-Petroleum Revenue;  permanent  fund dividend  (PFD)                                                               
from the earnings reserve account  (ERA); percent of market value                                                               
(POMV); UGF  Agency Ops;  Statewide Ops; Capital;  and PFDs.   He                                                               
explained he picked FY 2014 because  it was the start of Alaska's                                                               
decline in oil  revenue.  Within each bar [for  each fiscal year]                                                               
he  noted the  color coding  as follows:   dark  blue for  agency                                                               
operations;  light blue  for statewide  operations; golden  brown                                                               
for  capital budget;  and gray  for PFDs.   The  background shows                                                               
revenue sources.   From FY 14  through FY 18, the  state averaged                                                               
deficits of $3 billion annually.   There was a combined amount of                                                               
$16 billion  in the constitutional  budget reserve (CBR)  and the                                                               
statutory budget  reserve (SBR), and  by the  end of FY  18 those                                                               
two main accounts dropped to under  $2 billion.  He noted that in                                                               
FY 19,  the Alaska State  Legislature enacted the POMV  draw from                                                               
the permanent fund,  shown as purple on the chart.   Before that,                                                               
the  PFD came  from the  ERA before  then, shown  in red.   Since                                                               
that, the state has had relatively  balanced budgets.  From FY 19                                                               
through  FY  25,  the  state   has  had  a  pre-transfer  deficit                                                               
averaging  $200 million  a  year.   He  offered clarification  to                                                               
Representative  McCabe regarding  money that  would have  gone to                                                               
the PFD but remained in the ERA  and the change to a POMV draw in                                                               
FY 19.                                                                                                                          
                                                                                                                                
3:26:05 PM                                                                                                                    
                                                                                                                                
MR.  PAINTER,  in  response  to Chair  Carrick,  noted  that  the                                                               
capital budget in FY 25  was approximately $330 million UGF after                                                               
vetoes.   For comparison,  he noted  that the  governor's request                                                               
for FY 26 is $294 million.   He recommended looking at the budget                                                               
"session by  session" rather than by  year.  He commented  on the                                                               
"total picture  last year"  with a  $120 million  in supplemental                                                               
capital projects;  this year there  is no surplus from  the prior                                                               
year, so the governor's capital budget has $500,000 UGF.                                                                        
                                                                                                                                
3:28:11 PM                                                                                                                    
                                                                                                                                
MR.  PAINTER,  in  response   to  questions  from  Representative                                                               
Himschoot, said  the cost  to match federal  funds is  about $150                                                               
million.   Approximately  55 percent  of  the governor's  capital                                                               
budget  matches  federal  funds.   He  spoke  about  the  federal                                                               
infrastructure bill,  and he explained that  statewide operations                                                               
include  debt service  for school  debt  reimbursement or  school                                                               
general  obligation bonds  and state  assistance for  retirement,                                                               
for example.                                                                                                                    
                                                                                                                                
3:30:10 PM                                                                                                                    
                                                                                                                                
MR. PAINTER,  in response to  Representative Holland,  noted that                                                               
the  division's website  offers  historical  graphs that  include                                                               
statistics  with  and  without   inflation.    He  explained  how                                                               
inflation  can take  a  long time  to affect  the  budget due  to                                                               
multi-year contracts.                                                                                                           
                                                                                                                                
3:33:02 PM                                                                                                                    
                                                                                                                                
MR.  PAINTER,  in response  to  Representative  McCabe, said  the                                                               
division has  not been tasked with  comparing investment analysis                                                               
and this is ultimately a policy  call for legislators.  He talked                                                               
about  not  drawing out  from  investment  during down  year  and                                                               
"riding  those  swings."   He  mentioned  investments in  private                                                               
equities  compared to  the  retirement fund  and  the effects  of                                                               
long-term  time  horizons with  different  strategies.   He  said                                                               
comparing it to the treasury would be good.                                                                                     
                                                                                                                                
3:38:48 PM                                                                                                                    
                                                                                                                                
MR.  PAINTER returned  to PowerPoint  and proceeded  to the  next                                                               
slide,  which  illustrates the  structural  budget  deficit.   He                                                               
pointed to  FY 25 and noted  that the legislature had  a balanced                                                               
budget,  but oil  revenue subsequently  dropped by  approximately                                                               
$22  million, and  there is  no  designated source  to fill  that                                                               
deficit.    The  governor  has   $91.4  million  in  supplemental                                                               
requests,  which  brings the  deficit  to  $172.5 million.    The                                                               
governor  proposes  to  pull  that   out  of  the  CBR,  and  the                                                               
legislature  will  have to  address  that.    He noted  that  the                                                               
governor  cannot  sign  an  unbalanced  budget;  he  cannot  sign                                                               
appropriations to the supplemental  budget unless the legislature                                                               
gives him  the fund  source.   For FY  26, the  governor's budget                                                               
illustrates the  structural budget deficit.   He has  a statutory                                                               
PFD [in  the proposed budget],  which Mr. Painter said  the state                                                               
has not actually  paid out in nearly a decade.   He reported that                                                               
with  the  governor's  budget and  the  statutory  dividend,  the                                                               
deficit  is  approximately  $1.56  billion.   He  said  there  is                                                               
approximately $3 billion in the CBR,  so if drawn from there, the                                                               
legislature would be  drawing more than half the CBR  to fill the                                                               
FY 26 deficit.                                                                                                                  
                                                                                                                                
3:42:19 PM                                                                                                                    
                                                                                                                                
MR. PAINTER,  in response to Representative  Story, explained the                                                               
appropriation  in  FY   25  for  the  PFD,   and  specified  that                                                               
additional "energy relief" came out of  the FY 24 revenue.  Next,                                                               
in  response to  Representative  Himschoot, he  pointed out  that                                                               
other states  do not have  revenue volatility to the  degree that                                                               
Alaska does  because of  its reliance on  petroleum revenue.   He                                                               
advised that  a balance for  Alaska would mean a  balanced budget                                                               
with statutory formulas followed.                                                                                               
                                                                                                                                
3:45:53 PM                                                                                                                    
                                                                                                                                
MR.  PAINTER, in  response to  Chair Carrick,  answered that  the                                                               
state  having  a  budgeting  plan closest  to  Alaska's,  with  a                                                               
savings plan  withdrawal to  balance the  budget, would  be North                                                               
Dakota, which  pulls from a permanent  fund.  He opined  that the                                                               
state was using reserve draws in an unsustainable fashion.                                                                      
                                                                                                                                
3:46:45 PM                                                                                                                    
                                                                                                                                
MR.  PAINTER, in  response  to  Representative Holland,  remarked                                                               
that the  governor's long-term fiscal  plan, the 10-year  plan he                                                               
submitted  with  the  budget this  year,  showed  essentially  no                                                               
policy changes going  forward.  He noted that FY  24 ended with a                                                               
$12-billion budget balance  in the CBR and the  account cannot be                                                               
run negative.   He  explained that  some previous  governors have                                                               
tried to  have long-term plans  to balance  the budget.   He said                                                               
one governor had five different  scenarios that could address the                                                               
budget.                                                                                                                         
                                                                                                                                
MR. PAINTER  noted that  one path would  be what  the legislature                                                               
did in 2021,  when the Fiscal Plan Working  Group was established                                                               
to produce  a plan.   He said it  developed a framework  for what                                                               
the plan  could be, but the  legislature did not adopt  the plan.                                                               
He said that this is a  policy choice and there were several ways                                                               
to make the  math work with changes to  expenditures and revenue.                                                               
He said  that there  was a  large menu of  options and  he opined                                                               
that  the  Fiscal Plan  Working  Group  was  trying to  create  a                                                               
framework relative to this.                                                                                                     
                                                                                                                                
3:50:31 PM                                                                                                                    
                                                                                                                                
MR. PAINTER proceeded  to Slide 4, which offered  a different way                                                               
to visualize  the governor's  amended budget.   He pointed  out a                                                               
visual  summary of  the sources  of UGF  revenue and  the percent                                                               
draw from the  permanent fund.  He noted that  the governor has a                                                               
$1.65-billion deficit, but  it is important to note  that this is                                                               
not  where the  state would  end up;  the budget  number did  not                                                               
include some things  that would be added by the  end of the year.                                                               
The  biggest of  these additions  would  be school  funding.   He                                                               
noted that the  governor introduced two bills with a  total FY 26                                                               
cost of  $133.7 million.  In  the governor's budget, this  is not                                                               
included because fiscal  notes are not included in a  budget.  He                                                               
explained that  last year there  were $182 million  of additional                                                               
school funding  outside the  formula, which  was the  reason that                                                               
there was a big decrease in  the fiscal summary between FY 25 and                                                               
FY 26 operating budgets.  He  said that the governor is proposing                                                               
something like $133  million with his two bills and  HB 69 has an                                                               
estimated cost of around $275 million.   He said that when adding                                                               
this to the deficit, it would be a larger number.                                                                               
                                                                                                                                
MR. PAINTER  remarked that  the governor's  budget at  this point                                                               
includes three  unions that are  currently up  for renegotiation.                                                               
He  said  that $40  million  has  often  been a  placeholder  for                                                               
remaining negotiations.   He said  that the placeholder  was made                                                               
with 3  percent per union.   Correctional officers came in  at 11                                                               
percent, the  Mount Edgecumbe  Teachers came  in at  5.6 percent,                                                               
and the university  2.75 percent.  He said that  it was difficult                                                               
to  determine  outcomes to  negotiations  but  there will  be  an                                                               
increase  to   the  budget,   especially  considering   the  near                                                               
completion of a statewide salary survey.                                                                                        
                                                                                                                                
3:53:35 PM                                                                                                                    
                                                                                                                                
MR.  PAINTER,  in  response to  Representative  Story,  explained                                                               
reappropriated funds (RAs).   He said the source  of revenue that                                                               
primarily  goes into  this was  the RA  fund, a  fund capitalized                                                               
into  the  operating  budget  and   then  spent  without  further                                                               
appropriation  by  the  Department  of Education,  he  said  that                                                               
capitalization provides  the primary funding.   He explained that                                                               
the legislature is often chosen  to add additional appropriations                                                               
in the  capital budget; the governor  does not have any  of those                                                               
in  his budget  this year.   He  mentioned moratoriums  that have                                                               
been  placed  on  reimbursements  and fiscal  year  lapses  which                                                               
render new debt eligibility.                                                                                                    
                                                                                                                                
MR. PAINTER, in response to  additional questioning, commented on                                                               
the  longer term  revenue outlook  and its  implications for  the                                                               
governor's ten-year  plan.   He demonstrated  the revenue  over a                                                               
near decade, FY 26 to FY 34.   He said that the PowerPoint showed                                                               
SOA's  POMV  revenue  on  the  bottom  in  blue,  the  royalties,                                                               
production  tax,  other   petroleum  revenue,  and  non-petroleum                                                               
revenue were the  bars adding up to  the sum of UGF  revenue.  He                                                               
said that the  last line of the visual summary  was FY 26 growing                                                               
with inflation.   He pointed out  that through FY 32  the revenue                                                               
would not keep up with inflation.   He anticipated that given any                                                               
gap during  the current fiscal year,  there would still be  a gap                                                               
in FY 32 and FY 33.                                                                                                             
                                                                                                                                
3:55:29 PM                                                                                                                    
                                                                                                                                
MR.  PAINTER remarked  that in  FY 34,  there is  indication that                                                               
revenue  may  start to  overtake  inflation  slightly because  of                                                               
expectations  of  new fields  coming  online  at slightly  higher                                                               
prices, but  it would still be  close to the inflation  line.  He                                                               
said that  when building a fiscal  plan, one thing that  is often                                                               
ascertained is that if a budget  is balanced in the current year,                                                               
then it is often balanced in the future.                                                                                        
                                                                                                                                
3:56:56 PM                                                                                                                    
                                                                                                                                
MR.  PAINTER,  in  response   to  questions  from  Representative                                                               
McCabe,  said  school  bond  debt  reimbursement  programs  would                                                               
either be  40 or 50 percent  based on the nature  of the project.                                                               
He noted  that the Department  of Education reviews  the projects                                                               
and could  not place bonds on  activities that do not  qualify as                                                               
eligible projects.   He said that these  projects were open-ended                                                               
obligations with current program structure.                                                                                     
                                                                                                                                
MR.  PAINTER remarked  that  current inflation  given  by an  SOA                                                               
investment advisor was 2.5 percent.                                                                                             
                                                                                                                                
3:59:05 PM                                                                                                                    
                                                                                                                                
MR. PAINTER, in response to  questions from Representative Story,                                                               
said that school  bond debt funding was  subject to appropriation                                                               
each year.   He said there  have been instances where  a governor                                                               
has vetoed a portion of  school debt reimbursement but ultimately                                                               
the legislature  ended up repaying  the vetoed amounts.   He said                                                               
that things  can be  "open-ended" because  the state  cannot pick                                                               
and choose between school districts.                                                                                            
                                                                                                                                
4:00:43 PM                                                                                                                    
                                                                                                                                
MR. PAINTER, in response to  questions from Representative Moore,                                                               
said that  there were a  few ways  that House and  Senate Finance                                                               
Committees have looked  at this.  These  included potential plans                                                               
that did not quite balance the  state budget but were closer than                                                               
the  governor's  plan.    He remarked  that  the  Senate  Finance                                                               
Committee  asked for  budget scenarios  that included  a dividend                                                               
with a  25 POMV draw  and a  $680 base student  allocation (BSA).                                                               
He remarked  that a deficit would  remain with this BSA  but less                                                               
than  the governor's  proposal.   The  committee  said that  they                                                               
would  have  to  support  new  revenue  to  try  to  address  the                                                               
difference.  He  said that the House Finance Committee  ran a few                                                               
scenarios with  five different  dividends and a  $1,000 BSA.   He                                                               
said that only  one of the scenarios was  successful at balancing                                                               
a  budget.   He  said  that both  the  House  and Senate  Finance                                                               
Committees  have not  been able  to  develop a  solution since  a                                                               
deficit is evident in both their preferred plans.                                                                               
                                                                                                                                
4:02:29 PM                                                                                                                    
                                                                                                                                
MR. PAINTER, in response to  questions from Representative Vance,                                                               
remarked that budget  focus regarding the BSA has  been mostly on                                                               
the upcoming three years, FY 26 through FY 28.                                                                                  
                                                                                                                                
4:04:38 PM                                                                                                                    
                                                                                                                                
MR.  PAINTER,  in  response to  a  question  from  Representative                                                               
McCabe, noted  that a $1,000  BSA increase  and a plan  to manage                                                               
leftover capital  was one of  the scenarios in the  House Finance                                                               
Committee.                                                                                                                      
                                                                                                                                
^OVERVIEW(S):   2021  Comprehensive Fiscal  Policy Working  Group                                                               
Recommendations                                                                                                                 
  OVERVIEW(S):  2021 Comprehensive Fiscal Policy Working Group                                                              
                        Recommendations                                                                                     
                                                                                                                                
4:05:12 PM                                                                                                                    
                                                                                                                                
CHAIR CARRICK  announced that the  final order of  business would                                                               
be   the  2021   Comprehensive   Fiscal   Policy  Working   Group                                                               
Recommendations overview.                                                                                                       
                                                                                                                                
4:06:27 PM                                                                                                                    
                                                                                                                                
JONATHAN  KREISS-TOMKINS,  Former  Representative,  Alaska  State                                                               
Legislature, began  the 2021 Comprehensive Fiscal  Policy Working                                                               
Group   Recommendations  overview   via  PowerPoint   [hard  copy                                                               
included in  the committee packet].   He said that the  group was                                                               
born  out   of  one   of  the   many  situations   of  "political                                                               
brinksmanship"  where   the  government  is  near   shutdown  and                                                               
legislature could  not agree to  budget solutions.  He  said that                                                               
during his  tenure at the  legislature and time working  with the                                                               
Fiscal  Policy   Working  Group,  it  was   unclear  whether  the                                                               
legislature would have a budget by  the upcoming fiscal year.  He                                                               
said that in this type of  "political crisis," the leaders of the                                                               
four caucuses at the time  agreed that a bipartisan working group                                                               
would  be  a good  approach  at  attempting to  tackle  budgetary                                                               
issues.    He related  that  the  working group  comprised  eight                                                               
members -  two members from  each of  the four caucuses,  and his                                                               
role was a "co-facilitator" for the House.                                                                                      
                                                                                                                                
MR.  KREISS-TOMKINS described  Mr.  Painter's  presentation as  a                                                               
good summary of current situation  regarding Alaska's budget.  He                                                               
commended Mr.  Painter and the  Legislative Finance  Division for                                                               
serving as key  parts of the budget delegation process.   He said                                                               
that his  goal while  in the  working group was  to be  as "math-                                                               
driven"  as possible  when addressing  the  previous and  current                                                               
reality of  SOA's budget.  He  echoed Mr. Painter in  saying that                                                               
the established process for the  group was to define a reasonable                                                               
set of  fiscal assumptions and their  outcomes.  He said  that in                                                               
his  experience  this  was challenging  due  to  often  differing                                                               
opinions  amongst legislators  due to  different baseline  fiscal                                                               
assumptions.                                                                                                                    
                                                                                                                                
MR. KREISS-TOMKINS advised  that to speak the  same language with                                                               
regard  to  solutions,  there  needs  to  be  a  commonly  shared                                                               
definition of the  budgetary problem.  However,  people often use                                                               
different assumptions  in terms  of optimism and  pessimism given                                                               
oil  forecasts, inflation,  or a  variety of  other factors.   He                                                               
explained  that  incorrect  assumptions  are  consequential  when                                                               
building projections  around a  deficit or size  of deficit.   It                                                               
took time for  the working group to determine a  universal set of                                                               
fiscal  assumptions.   During his  time with  the Fiscal  Working                                                               
Group a  common set  of assumptions  was established  amongst the                                                               
group.   He said members  of the  working group then  worked with                                                               
the division to investigate various  means to balance the budget.                                                               
He said  that it put each  member of the  group "in a box  with a                                                               
math problem."  He said that  various members of the group solved                                                               
the problem  in different ways  because of differences  in policy                                                               
priorities.  He said it was  a balance between leaning heavily on                                                               
cuts  and  leaning  heavily  on   revenues.    He  remarked  that                                                               
comparisons between  how members  balanced the budget  and solved                                                               
the  "math problem"  was  a very  important  exercise for  future                                                               
deliberations.   He commented  that the  division has  a terrific                                                               
model  for  budget simulations  for  upcoming  and future  fiscal                                                               
years.   He opined that it  was a very constructive  tool for any                                                               
legislator who is serious about a balanced budget.                                                                              
                                                                                                                                
4:13:53 PM                                                                                                                    
                                                                                                                                
MR.  KREISS-TOMKINS   emphasized  that   no  one   component  was                                                               
supported in isolation.  He said  he thinks this is the political                                                               
problem surrounding the  budget deficit in Alaska.   He explained                                                               
that "for most legislators, the  policy solutions that are on the                                                               
table  are interdependent  and conditional  on each  other."   He                                                               
noted that  interdependency and  conditionality can  be difficult                                                               
politically and  that it was  a reason SOA  has not been  able to                                                               
pass a  fiscal plan  in a  couple of decades.   He  remarked that                                                               
positions  that  each working  group  member  had on  any  single                                                               
provision were  understood within the context  of a comprehensive                                                               
solution, which meant that members  could not necessarily "cherry                                                               
pick" [from varying models].                                                                                                    
                                                                                                                                
MR.  KREISS-TOMKINS  remarked that  there  were  a few  important                                                               
structural  pieces that  needed consideration  by group  members.                                                               
These included:   a single account permanent  fund dividend (PFD)                                                               
structure;  constitutional  certainty  for  the PFD;  a  new  PFD                                                               
formula  rather than  the current  statutory  formula; a  healthy                                                               
capital   budget;  spending   limit   reform;   necessity  of   a                                                               
transitional period  to bridge things; and  constitutional budget                                                               
reserve  (CBR)  reform,  specifically   the  sweep  process  that                                                               
happens every year.  He said  that these were all key pieces that                                                               
led to an eight-way consensus  amongst members, many of whom held                                                               
different  ideological positions  on the  budget.   He said  that                                                               
previous  members of  the  fiscal working  group  could speak  to                                                               
experiences as well.                                                                                                            
                                                                                                                                
4:18:43 PM                                                                                                                    
                                                                                                                                
REPRESENTATIVE  MCCABE  remarked  that  there were  a  couple  of                                                               
things worth considering  following Mr. Kreiss-Tomkins testimony.                                                               
He  remarked that  when previously  working in  the group,  there                                                               
were certain things that members  unanimously agreed to, and they                                                               
were included  in the  report [included in  committee file].   He                                                               
said that  these agreements were  important given  differences in                                                               
opinion regarding the budget.                                                                                                   
                                                                                                                                
REPRESENTATIVE MCCABE said  that he was insistent on  a full PFD,                                                               
but  it rapidly  became  apparent  that he  could  not hold  that                                                               
position.   He said  after extensive  discussion it  was apparent                                                               
that  the entirety  of  the budget  could not  be  balanced on  a                                                               
single issue.   He  said that  the unanimous  conclusions amongst                                                               
working group members were the important ones.                                                                                  
                                                                                                                                
REPRESENTATIVE  MCCABE said  that he  did not  even like  talking                                                               
about  taxes, yet  discussions were  held  regarding new  revenue                                                               
development  and  finding a  path  forward.    He said  that  Mr.                                                               
Painter provided  the working group with  five different modeling                                                               
spreadsheets  where  inputs  could  be  entered  to  see  how  it                                                               
impacted areas of the budget.   He said this is good exercise for                                                               
anyone interested in the fiscal  realities of budgeting.  He said                                                               
he  ran  around 50-60  different  scenarios  to evaluate  how  it                                                               
impacted the  outcome of the  budget.   He said that  truly, once                                                               
out of the ideological box, it really is just a "math problem."                                                                 
                                                                                                                                
4:21:11 PM                                                                                                                    
                                                                                                                                
MR. KREISS-TOMKINS, in response  to questions from Representative                                                               
Vance,  said   that  the  presentation   from  Mr.   Painter  was                                                               
informative  and served  as  a refresher  for  the current  state                                                               
budget.  He said that it  seemed that there were similar elements                                                               
regarding  the budget  currently  and during  his  time with  the                                                               
working group.   He noted,  however, that the  politics regarding                                                               
the PFD may  have shifted in previous years.   He did not believe                                                               
that the  state's uncertainties would  get solved unless  some or                                                               
all  the  components  were  enacted.     He  said  then  when  he                                                               
interfaced with the budget model,  he would pull levers that were                                                               
often different from  other legislators.  He  said that political                                                               
compromise was required, especially  for structural budget pieces                                                               
to be  in place.   He  opined that there  is no  way to  create a                                                               
long-term   fiscal   stability    plan   without   constitutional                                                               
amendments,  largely because  the PFD  is fundamentally  unsound.                                                               
He discussed  the two-thirds vote  required for  a constitutional                                                               
amendment and  the bipartisan compromise often  required to enact                                                               
them.                                                                                                                           
                                                                                                                                
4:27:11 PM                                                                                                                    
                                                                                                                                
SENATOR MIKE SHOWER, Alaska State  Legislature, at the invitation                                                               
of Chair Carrick, emphasized the  importance of this "crosstalk."                                                               
He remarked  on previous budgetary  discussions with  Mr. Kreiss-                                                               
Tomkins  while in  working group.    He said  that the  political                                                               
differences   between  members   fostered   long  dialogues   and                                                               
collaboration.  He said that  political members can compromise on                                                               
policy but not  principles and this was  important to understand.                                                               
He  said that  remaining in  an "ideological  sandbox" would  not                                                               
solve budgetary problems.                                                                                                       
                                                                                                                                
SENATOR SHOWER  complimented the presentation by  Mr. Painter and                                                               
highlighted  challenges   of  presenting  solutions   that  often                                                               
involve compromise.  He remarked that  the changes to the CBR and                                                               
earnings  reserve account  (ERA) in  previous years  suggest that                                                               
the  legislature has  been "kicking  the can  down the  road" for                                                               
over a  decade.  He said  that he cannot see  that any legislator                                                               
could fail to  acknowledge that SOA is spending more  than it was                                                               
taking in.   He raised  concerns to  implications to the  PFD and                                                               
state  savings if  corrections were  not made.   He  talked about                                                               
challenges involving  taxes for  revenue generation  and striking                                                               
the  right balance  to encourage  investment.   He stated  that a                                                               
stable  fiscal  environment  was  imperative  for  this  type  of                                                               
investment.                                                                                                                     
                                                                                                                                
SENATOR SHOWER,  in summary, said  that to address  the budgetary                                                               
issues, all  legislative members  would need to  "take a  hit" to                                                               
their  preferred  plan  to make  the  appropriate  compromise  to                                                               
address the budget.   He said that kicking the  can down the road                                                               
was   no  longer   appropriate  regarding   the  current   budget                                                               
forecasting.                                                                                                                    
                                                                                                                                
4:33:16 PM                                                                                                                    
                                                                                                                                
CHAIR  CARRICK remarked  that in  2024, there  had been  a fiscal                                                               
retreat   for  freshman   legislators   in   which  Mr.   Painter                                                               
participated.   She  said that  an out-of-state  moderator helped                                                               
foster discussions.   She said that in the absence  of the former                                                               
House  Special  Committee on  Ways  and  Means, the  House  State                                                               
Affairs   Standing  Committee   should  discuss   fiscal  policy,                                                               
especially given many of the committee members' interest in it.                                                                 
                                                                                                                                
4:34:21 PM                                                                                                                    
                                                                                                                                
MR.  KREISS-TOMKINS,  in  response to  Representative  Himschoot,                                                               
said that  adding the  components required  for a  healthy budget                                                               
would  require  trust,   patience,  and  multi-piece  legislative                                                               
package.   He said that  collaboration would be  required between                                                               
both  legislative  bodies and  the  governor.   He  talked  about                                                               
coordination  and timing  with regard  to  running bills  through                                                               
both  bodies and  the trust  required.   He  said the  structural                                                               
budget problem reflects a degree of political complexity.                                                                       
                                                                                                                                
MR. KREIS-TOMKINS remarked on  involvement during previous budget                                                               
discussions.   He said that  the Office  of the governor  had not                                                               
been directly  involved with the  prior working group.   However,                                                               
there  was   some  informal  dialogue  that   occurred  with  the                                                               
governor's staff.                                                                                                               
                                                                                                                                
4:39:37 PM                                                                                                                    
                                                                                                                                
REPRESENTATIVE  MCCABE  remarked  that  he  did  not  recall  the                                                               
governor's  office  being  involved  in  previous  working  group                                                               
discussions.    He  remarked  that   timing  was  important  when                                                               
considering  structural  components  relevant  to  balancing  the                                                               
budget.  He said that political  strife can arise when timing was                                                               
not appropriate.                                                                                                                
                                                                                                                                
4:41:24 PM                                                                                                                    
                                                                                                                                
REPRESENTATIVE  HIMSCHOOT  said  that  to  her  understanding,  a                                                               
constitutional change would require the  vote of the people.  She                                                               
said  that legislative  decisions would  need to  take this  into                                                               
consideration.                                                                                                                  
                                                                                                                                
REPRESENTATIVE   MCCABE  confirmed   this   understanding.     He                                                               
discussed  previous attempts  to constitutionalize  the PFD.   He                                                               
said any  attempts would  be put  in front of  the people  and he                                                               
believed this  was a hang-up  for many legislators.   He remarked                                                               
on constituents  that want  a voice with  regard to  PFD changes.                                                               
He concluded  by saying  that both a  constitutional change  to a                                                               
spending cap and the PFD would require a vote of the people.                                                                    
                                                                                                                                
4:42:52 PM                                                                                                                    
                                                                                                                                
SENATOR SHOWER offered a few  points of consideration.  The first                                                               
was that  the governor was interested  in a plan and  seeing what                                                               
the legislature  was able to  put in  front of him  that balanced                                                               
the  budget.    Second  was   that  there  had  been  discussions                                                               
regarding contingency language  to add a little  more security to                                                               
budget plans.   The  third was  that a  50/50 dividend  was still                                                               
being discussed.                                                                                                                
                                                                                                                                
4:43:44 PM                                                                                                                    
                                                                                                                                
MR.  KREISS-TOMKINS,  in   response  to  Representative  Holland,                                                               
remarked  that there  was  no silver  bullet  answer for  solving                                                               
budget issues.   He said  that trust and collaboration  would not                                                               
involve caucus to caucus disputes, as  it would never result in a                                                               
two-third vote  required for a constitutional  amendment, and the                                                               
problem  would remain  unsolved.   He remarked  that urgency  and                                                               
crisis have always served as  a trigger for action in legislative                                                               
affairs.                                                                                                                        
                                                                                                                                
MR.  KREISS-TOMKINS opined  that  the ticking  time  bomb in  the                                                               
state was  the two-account structure  and the PFD, and  they have                                                               
been  problematic for  some  time.   He said  that  as the  stock                                                               
market  approaches correction  territory,  things become  riskier                                                               
year after  year.   He raised  caution to  where the  state could                                                               
have  no budget  available to  operate the  state.   To him  as a                                                               
private citizen, it was something  that would provoke action.  He                                                               
said  this type  of crisis  is not  predictable; it  is known  to                                                               
exist, with varying odds, but it was not time-specific.                                                                         
                                                                                                                                
4:49:47 PM                                                                                                                    
                                                                                                                                
REPRESENTATIVE  STORY thanked  each member  of the  working group                                                               
who shared their  insights.  She asked whether  the working group                                                               
had reviewed indirect expenditure as  stated in the working group                                                               
document [in committee file].                                                                                                   
                                                                                                                                
SENATOR SHOWER said that he  appreciated the opportunity to speak                                                               
with  the  committee  regarding  budgetary  issues,  and  it  was                                                               
something not  often done  in both  chambers.   He said  it would                                                               
likely be the  most important thing that can be  done in the next                                                               
couple of years.  He remarked  on a popular phrase that "the best                                                               
time to plant  a tree was twenty  years ago.  The  next best time                                                               
is today."   He remarked  that budgetary solutions can  be viewed                                                               
the  same   way.    He   said  many  legislators  were   new  and                                                               
acknowledged   the  issue   even   without   experience  at   the                                                               
legislature.   He  said now  may  be the  time to  have all  four                                                               
caucuses  engaged in  discussions and  "all hands-on  deck."   He                                                               
remarked on making meaningful changes  to the budget for the sake                                                               
of the kids  and grandkids in Alaska.  He  wanted Alaska youth to                                                               
inherit a state in which to be proud.                                                                                           
                                                                                                                                
REPRESENTATIVE  MCCABE  responded  to a  previous  question  from                                                               
Representative Story and  noted that Senator Hughs  had looked at                                                               
indirect expenditures,  and he did  not believe that it  was done                                                               
as a  group.  He said  that legislators went through  an exercise                                                               
looking at these expenditures but  even given savings, it was not                                                               
enough to resolve  the root problem.  He said  it is important to                                                               
question whether a  state government funded by  the PFD earnings,                                                               
federal  funds,  and oil  revenues  is  going to  protect  Alaska                                                               
liberties  for  citizens  who have  no  financial  responsibility                                                               
paying for the programs that they  demand.  He said that this has                                                               
been  discussed a  lot  and what  was  described was  "socialism"                                                               
where the  government is responsible for  everything and citizens                                                               
pay nothing.   He said that taxpayers may quickly  vote out their                                                               
officials if  tax revenue  is not spent  appropriately.   He said                                                               
the  PFD and  base  student allocation  (BSA)  address this  very                                                               
issue  and the  problems associated  with financing  a government                                                               
with current funding streams.                                                                                                   
                                                                                                                                
MR.  KREISS-TOMKINS,  in  response  to  previous  questions  from                                                               
Representative  Holland and  Representative Story,  remarked that                                                               
the working  group had "gotten  into the weeds"  regarding budget                                                               
reductions.  He  said that as former chair of  the House Standing                                                               
Committee  on State  Affairs, he  had run  many budget  reduction                                                               
committee  bills based  on the  Legislative Finance  [Division's]                                                               
indirect expenditure  report.  He recommended  that the committee                                                               
members read that report.   He talked about challenges associated                                                               
with budget reduction  measures and said it  was more complicated                                                               
than  using a  "magic  wand."   He remarked  that  when he  first                                                               
arrived in Juneau as a legislator  in 2013, there were around $16                                                               
billion  in the  CBR,  and  when he  left,  there  were under  $1                                                               
billion  in   the  CBR.    He   shared  Representative  Holland's                                                               
sentiment that  the cash  was being  liquidated due  to political                                                               
impasse.   He said that there  is a cost to  inaction, both long-                                                               
term and acute.                                                                                                                 
                                                                                                                                
MR. KREISS-TOMKINS  noted that his previous  involvement with the                                                               
working group  involved collaboration with Miles  Baker, the then                                                               
governor's legislative director.   He was not involved  on a day-                                                               
to-day basis but was engaged in the working group processes.                                                                    
                                                                                                                                
4:59:37 PM                                                                                                                    
                                                                                                                                
CHAIR CARRICK  expressed hope that  the House  Standing Committee                                                               
on  State  Affairs could  foster  collaboration  and find  common                                                               
ground  while discussing  fiscal  policy.   She mentioned  former                                                               
Representative  Carpenter's  involvement   on  the  former  House                                                               
Special Committee  on Ways  and Means and  hearing bills  that he                                                               
did  not personally  support.   She  said this  was  the kind  of                                                               
political courage  necessary to  remediate budget issues  in SOA.                                                               
She  remarked that  future fiscal  policy  proposals should  come                                                               
from  legislators of  both caucuses.   She  remarked on  upcoming                                                               
bill  proposals  and her  intention  to  hear  as many  bills  as                                                               
possible.    She opined  that  there  was  no single  issue  more                                                               
important  than addressing  the  problems  associated with  SOA's                                                               
budget.                                                                                                                         
                                                                                                                                
5:02:24 PM                                                                                                                    
                                                                                                                                
REPRESENTATIVE MCCABE  remarked that former Governor  Jay Hammond                                                               
had once said  that if the dividend were lost,  it would activate                                                               
the "militant ring of Alaskans."   He said that this seemed to be                                                               
the direction  the state  was going;  however, he  specified that                                                               
"the pain point"  would not come until the state  dipped into the                                                               
corpus of  the fund.   He offered  his understanding  that former                                                               
Representative Carpenter shared this sentiment.                                                                                 
                                                                                                                                
5:03:07 PM                                                                                                                    
                                                                                                                                
REPRESENTATIVE VANCE  remarked that she  hoped that it  would not                                                               
come to this.  She said that  one necessary step to a solution is                                                               
recognizing that  Alaska has a problem.   She said that  while it                                                               
may  seem like  the legislature  was "putting  out fires  all the                                                               
time," this  one was to  be prioritized.   She said  that looking                                                               
back at the  $20-30 billion the state has "blown  through" in the                                                               
last  decade,  there  was  no  noticeable  improvement  to  major                                                               
infrastructure.   She  echoed that  there was  in fact  a problem                                                               
associated with inaction, it costs  opportunity.  She opined that                                                               
most Alaskans do not realize that  most of the state budget comes                                                               
from the earnings of the  permanent fund and as legislators there                                                               
was  a responsibility  to communicate  this.   She discussed  the                                                               
need  to  "bring  the  public  along"  when  attempting  to  pass                                                               
legislation  that   would  require   a  two-thirds  vote.     She                                                               
reiterated   that   acknowledgment   of  budgetary   issues   was                                                               
imperative.                                                                                                                     
                                                                                                                                
5:05:58 PM                                                                                                                    
                                                                                                                                
REPRESENTATIVE  HOLLAND  said  that   looking  at  the  executive                                                               
budget, he was  mystified by what was occurring.   With help from                                                               
Mr. Painter,  he was able  to get  some help deciphering  how the                                                               
Executive Budget  Act works but also  what was not being  done by                                                               
the  legislature to  fulfill the  requirements  of the  act.   He                                                               
encouraged committee  members to familiarize themselves  with the                                                               
Executive  Budget Act  and  noted that  it was  a  "piece of  the                                                               
puzzle."                                                                                                                        
                                                                                                                                
5:07:09 PM                                                                                                                    
                                                                                                                                
REPRESENTATIVE HIMSCHOOT  discussed the  capital budget  that was                                                               
illustrated by  the Fiscal Policy  Working Group and  the federal                                                               
match.   She  raised concern  to many  of Alaska's  dated assets,                                                               
including the  Fairbanks Pioneer Home,  which was in  rough shape                                                               
and ready  to be  condemned.   She said that  much of  Alaska was                                                               
stuck  in  the 1980s.    She  discussed funding  differences  for                                                               
districts in Oregon  and compared them to Alaska.   She said that                                                               
capital projects in the state  would become more intensive due to                                                               
aging infrastructure.                                                                                                           
                                                                                                                                
5:08:42 PM                                                                                                                    
                                                                                                                                
CHAIR CARRICK  acknowledged Representative  Himschoot's concerns.                                                               
She thanked presenters for their insights.                                                                                      
                                                                                                                                
5:09:07 PM                                                                                                                    
                                                                                                                                
ADJOURNMENT                                                                                                                   
                                                                                                                                
There being no  further business before the  committee, the House                                                               
State Affairs  Standing Committee  meeting was adjourned  at 5:09                                                               
p.m.                                                                                                                            

Document Name Date/Time Subjects
HSTA Fiscal Outlook 3-18-25.pdf HSTA 3/18/2025 3:15:00 PM
2021_Fiscal_Policy_Working_Group-Final_Report.pdf HSTA 3/18/2025 3:15:00 PM
HB114 Sponsor Statement Ver A.pdf HSTA 3/18/2025 3:15:00 PM
HB 114
HB 114 Ver A.pdf HSTA 3/18/2025 3:15:00 PM
HB 114
HB114 Sectional Analysis Ver A.pdf HSTA 3/18/2025 3:15:00 PM
HB 114
HB 114 Fiscal Note DOR-PFD-3-13-25.pdf HSTA 3/18/2025 3:15:00 PM
HB 114
HB 114 Backup LFD Modeling.pdf HSTA 3/18/2025 3:15:00 PM
HB 114
HB114 Presentation 3-18-25.pdf HSTA 3/18/2025 3:15:00 PM
HB 114