Legislature(2025 - 2026)GRUENBERG 120
02/14/2025 01:00 PM House JUDICIARY
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| Audio | Topic |
|---|---|
| Start | |
| Presentation(s): Crime Trends in Alaska | |
| Adjourn |
* first hearing in first committee of referral
+ teleconferenced
= bill was previously heard/scheduled
+ teleconferenced
= bill was previously heard/scheduled
| + | TELECONFERENCED | ||
| + | TELECONFERENCED | ||
ALASKA STATE LEGISLATURE
HOUSE JUDICIARY STANDING COMMITTEE
February 14, 2025
1:25 p.m.
MEMBERS PRESENT
Representative Andrew Gray, Chair
Representative Chuck Kopp, Vice Chair
Representative Ted Eischeid
Representative Genevieve Mina
Representative Sarah Vance
Representative Mia Costello
Representative Jubilee Underwood
MEMBERS ABSENT
All members present
COMMITTEE CALENDAR
PRESENTATION(S): CRIME TRENDS IN ALASKA
- HEARD
PREVIOUS COMMITTEE ACTION
No previous action to record
WITNESS REGISTER
BRAD MYRSTOL, Director
Justice Information Center
University of Alaska
Anchorage, Alaska
POSITION STATEMENT: Presented the Crime Trends in Alaska
presentation.
ACTION NARRATIVE
1:25:24 PM
CHAIR ANDREW GRAY called the House Judiciary Standing Committee
meeting to order at 1:25 p.m. Representatives Underwood,
Costello, Mina, Eischeid, Vance, Kopp, and Gray were present at
the call to order.
^PRESENTATION(S): Crime Trends in Alaska
PRESENTATION(S): Crime Trends in Alaska
1:26:08 PM
CHAIR GRAY announced that the only order of business would be
the Crime Trends in Alaska presentation.
1:27:13 PM
BRAD MYRSTOL, Chair/Director, Justice Information Center (JIA),
University of Alaska (UA), presented a PowerPoint, titled
"Alaska Crime Rate Trends 1985-2023" [hard copy included in the
committee packet]. He discussed the data source: Uniform Crime
Reports (UCR), which is a program managed by the Federal Bureau
of Investigation (FBI). He highlighted rates of property crime
and violent crime in Alaska from 1985-2023, noting the linear
decline in property crime rates and the flat rate of violent
crimes since 1993. In response to a series of committee
questions, he said the data is inclusive of population changes
and the increase in violent crimes from 1985 to 1996 mirrors
national trends.
1:39:57 PM
MR. MYRSTOL continued the presentation with an analysis of UCR
crime trends, characterizing them as a "mixed bag." He
highlighted property crime rates in Alaska from 1985 to 2023,
explaining that the property crime composite is dominated by
larceny and theft and the disaggregated trends show a consistent
decline. In response to a series of committee questions, he
cautioned against trying to pinpoint one specific causal factor,
as crime rates usually correlate to a variety of factors.
Nonetheless, he theorized that the increase from 2016 through
2020 may be related to the opioid epidemic. He stated that the
violent crime composite is dominated by aggravated assault, and
without it, rates of rape, robbery, and criminal homicide are
variable. In response to a question about differences in the
definition of rape, he explained that in 2013, UCR broadened its
definition to be much more inclusive of the victim population by
including males and widely expanding the menu of offenses. He
said the changes made to the UCR in 2013 was more reflective of
Alaska statutes, adding that the legacy definition of rape was
woefully inadequate to capture the volume of rape occurring in
any jurisdiction.
1:56:12 PM
MR. MYRSTOL discussed the robbery rate from 1985 to 2023 and
highlighted a spike in the mid-1980s to 1990s, which corresponds
with national trends, followed by a second spike around 2015.
He hypothesized that the correlation between the opioid epidemic
and robbery rates is something to be explored. In response to
committee questions, he said it's plausible to create a linkage
between the state's economic health and crime and expounded on
dynamics that may be impactful to rates of violence in a
community, such as unemployment. He highlighted the low
prevalence of criminal homicide relative to other violent
crimes. Overall, since 2000, there has been a persistent flat
trend in the violent crime rate. He offered a comparison of
Alaska's crime trends versus the United States in 2023, noting
that Alaska's violent crime composite rate is 543 percent higher
than that of the U.S, whereas Alaska's property crime composite
only makes up 84.5 percent of the U.S.
2:13:49 PM
MR. MYRSTOL, in response to a series of committee questions,
said accessing the data from the archive would make it possible
to calculate variances and a standard error to identify a
statistically significant difference. He agreed that there may
not be a statistically significant difference in property
crimes; however, he confidently stated that there would be a
statistical difference in rape and aggravated assault. He said
it would be difficult to provide a breakdown of the data by
region because the Alaska State Troopers (AST) report as an
agency.
2:21:54 PM
MR. MYRSTOL gave a synopsis of the overall takeaway: a downward
trend in statewide property crime rates; persistently high rates
of violent crime rates since 2000 and abnormally high rates of
rape and aggravated assault since 2023. He highlighted the
compelling temporal and comparative patterns in the data, which
suggest that Alaska's crime problem may be a violent crime
problem. He offered several caveats, explaining that the UCR is
not well suited for measuring the prevalence of crime, but works
well for trend analysis. He added that the National Crime
Victimization Survey (NCVS) isn't perfect either, as crime is
highly contextual. He stated that Alaska would benefit greatly
from a statewide NCVS-type crime victimization survey; however
this is a national crime rate and does not provide for state-
level estimates.
2:30:08 PM
MR. MYRSTOL turned attention to the Alaska Victimization Survey
(AVS) and discussed the measurement of rape/sexual assault in
Alaska. He said a lack of reporting makes it difficult to
provide services to survivors of rape and sexual assault, design
and implement prevention initiatives, and offer other
accountability measures. Consequently, the victimization survey
was designed to provide estimates of victimization prevalence
and how many people experience rape and or sexual assault. He
gave an overview of the AVS methodology, which uses a statewide
telephonic survey. He overviewed the estimated percentage of
adult women in Alaska who experienced intimate partner violence
(IPV) and sexual violence (SV) composites. Overall in 2020, 6.9
percent of adult Alaskan women, or 18,314 women, experienced
intimate partner violence and 3.4 percent, or 8,791 women,
experienced sexual violence.
2:40:23 PM
MR. MYRSTOL, in response to committee questions, said including
incarcerated women in the AVS would require a different
methodology and would be costly and difficult to perform. He
clarified that their voices are valued; however, it would create
significant mythological challenges. He confirmed that [the
AVS] would be conducted in 2025 with reporting released in
summer or fall of 2026. He shared the example of a Boston
policy change related to gun control and how that initiative was
implemented, resulting in marked success.
2:49:07 PM
ADJOURNMENT
There being no further business before the committee, the House
Judiciary Standing Committee meeting was adjourned at 2:49 p.m.
| Document Name | Date/Time | Subjects |
|---|---|---|
| AK_CRIME_RATE_TRENDS_20250213.pdf |
HJUD 2/14/2025 1:00:00 PM |
Crime Trends |