Legislature(2019 - 2020)GRUENBERG 120
03/08/2019 01:30 PM House JUDICIARY
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| Audio | Topic |
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| Start | |
| Presentation: Justice Research for Ak by Dr. Brad Myrstol, Director, Justice Center, University of Ak Anchorage | |
| Adjourn |
* first hearing in first committee of referral
+ teleconferenced
= bill was previously heard/scheduled
+ teleconferenced
= bill was previously heard/scheduled
| + | TELECONFERENCED | ||
ALASKA STATE LEGISLATURE
HOUSE JUDICIARY STANDING COMMITTEE
March 8, 2019
1:33 p.m.
MEMBERS PRESENT
Representative Matt Claman, Chair
Representative Gabrielle LeDoux, Vice Chair
Representative Adam Wool
Representative Laddie Shaw
Representative David Eastman
MEMBERS ABSENT
Representative Chuck Kopp
Representative Louise Stutes
COMMITTEE CALENDAR
PRESENTATION: Justice Research for AK by Dr. Brad Myrstol~
Director~ Justice Center~ University of Alaska Anchorage
- HEARD
PREVIOUS COMMITTEE ACTION
No previous action to record
WITNESS REGISTER
BRAD MYRSTOL, PhD, Director
UAA Justice Center; Director
Alaska Justice Information Center
University of Alaska Anchorage
Anchorage, Alaska
POSITION STATEMENT: Gave presentations on the UAA Justice
Center and Alaska crime rate statistics and answered committee
questions.
TROY PAYNE, PhD, Associate Professor
UAA Justice Center; Associate Director
Alaska Justice Information Center
University of Alaska Anchorage
Anchorage, Alaska
POSITION STATEMENT: Gave a presentation on rearrest data in
Alaska and answered committee questions.
ACTION NARRATIVE
1:33:39 PM
CHAIR MATT CLAMAN called the House Judiciary Standing Committee
meeting to order at 1:33 p.m. Representatives Eastman, LeDoux,
Shaw, and Claman were present at the call to order.
Representative Wool arrived as the meeting was in progress.
^Presentation: Justice Research for AK by Dr. Brad Myrstol,
Director, Justice Center, University of AK Anchorage
Presentation: Justice Research for AK by Dr. Brad Myrstol,
Director, Justice Center, University of AK Anchorage
1:34:22 PM
CHAIR CLAMAN announced that the only order of business would be
a series of presentations by Dr. Brad Myrstol and Dr. Troy Payne
from the University of Alaska Anchorage (UAA) Justice Research
and the Alaska Justice Information Center (AJiC).
1:34:48 PM
CHAIR CLAMAN opened invited testimony.
1:35:32 PM
BRAD MYRSTOL, PhD, Director, UAA Justice Center; Director,
Alaska Justice Information Center, University of Alaska
Anchorage, stated three objectives for his and Dr. Payne's
presentations: to provide a brief overview of the UAA Justice
Center, to provide context for deliberations on recent crime
rate trends in Alaska, and to present new analysis of rearrest
data.
1:36:21 PM
DR. MYRSTOL began his PowerPoint presentation [hard copy
included in the committee packet] and addressed slide two,
titled "History and Mission." He said the UAA Justice Center
has been in operation since 1975. Its mission, he said, is to
provide statewide justice-related education, research, and
service. He called the Justice Center a comprehensive academic
and research unit. He said this part of the presentation would
focus more on the Justice Center's research programs [including
AJiC].
1:37:19 PM
DR. MYRSTOL distinguished faculty research at the Justice Center
from organized research conducted out of AJiC. He said the
Justice Center is committed to conducting vigorous, impactful,
and Alaska-relevant research.
1:38:09 PM
DR. MYRSTOL addressed slide three, titled "Faculty Research."
He said each faculty member at the Justice Center has a
particular area of expertise and pursues research in that area.
He noted that the Justice Center prefers to address practitioner
and policy-maker questions. He provided a brief list of
research partnerships: The Alaska Victimization Survey, the
Troopers B-Detachment Patrol Staffing Study, the Sexual Assault
Kit Initiative, the [No Violence Alliance] Reentry Project
Evaluation, the Graduated Response Matrix (GRM) Assessment and
Refinement Project, and the Statewide Community-Based Batterer
Intervention Program (BIP) Process and Outcome Evaluation. Dr.
Myrstol said this list demonstrates the breadth of the Justice
Center's research.
1:40:18 PM
DR. MYRSTOL addressed slide four, titled "AJiC." He provided
historical background on AJiC and detailed its mission, which is
"to compile, analyze, and report on criminal justice topics to
policymakers and practitioners in order to improve public
safety, to increase criminal justice system accountability, and
to reduce recidivism." He described AJiC's structure like that
of a three-legged stool, consisting of an integrated justice
data platform, the Alaska Results First Initiative, and the
Statistical Analysis Center.
1:42:33 PM
DR. MYRSTOL addressed slide five, also titled "AJiC," which
featured a list of recent and ongoing AJiC projects. He
highlighted work done by the Alaska Results First Initiative on
adult criminal justice, as well as an upcoming project on
behavioral health. He mentioned Dr. Payne leadership in the
effort to revalidate Alaska's pretrial risk assessment tool for
the Department of Corrections (DOC). He shared his excitement
about doing data integration in conjunction with the Anchored
Home permanent supportive housing project in Anchorage.
1:43:45 PM
DR. MYRSTOL addressed slide six, titled "To Learn More..." He
encouraged the committee to contact him and his staff with any
additional questions about the Justice Center.
1:44:28 PM
DR. MYRSTOL began a new PowerPoint presentation [slide seven in
the packet] titled "Illicit Drug Crime Nexus." He explained
the presentation would be a reprise of one he gave at the 2018
Public Safety Forum. He disclosed two objectives: To provide
context about crime trends in Alaska as they compare to national
trends and to present limited data about the opioid crisis.
1:45:14 PM
REPRESENTATIVE WOOL acknowledged the links between opioid use
and criminal activity. He noted that other drugs like
methamphetamines are also linked to criminal activity. He asked
if Dr. Myrstol's analysis of crime statistics isolates opioids
from other behavior-altering drugs.
1:46:09 PM
DR. MYRSTOL said the available data limits AJiC's ability to
make explicit connections between specific drugs of abuse and
how they become manifested in criminal behavior.
1:47:05 PM
DR. MYRSTOL introduced a section of his presentation titled
"Crimes Reported to Police." He said the data source was the
Uniform Crime Reporting (UCR) program managed by the Federal
Bureau of Investigation (FBI). He said the data consisting of
all crimes known to police was compiled by multiple agencies
in Alaska, reported to the Department of Public Safety (DPS),
and transmitted by DPS to the FBI.
1:48:05 PM
DR. MYRSTOL addressed slide nine, titled "Violent Crime Rates:
1985-2017." The slide featured a line graph comparing Alaska
rates to national rates. The graph also measured the yearly
number of drug overdose deaths in Alaska since 1998. He noted
the Alaska violent crime rate first exceeded the national rate
after 1993. He said the rates remained steady until about 2002
when a period of divergence began. He stated that violent crime
rates have been increasing in Alaska for quite some time. He
said there was a rapid acceleration of the violent crime rate in
Alaska beginning in 2014. He pointed to a correspondence
between drug overdose deaths statistics and violent crime
statistics.
1:51:42 PM
DR. MYRSTOL addressed slide 10, titled "Property Crime Rates:
1985-2017." The slide featured a line graph comparing Alaska
rates to national rates. The graph also measured the yearly
number of drug overdose deaths in Alaska since 1998. He noted
that property crimes are more prevalent than violent crimes. He
said national property crime rates have been in a long decline.
He said Alaska property crime rates had followed a nearly
identical trend until about 2011 when the decline turned. He
said the property crime rate accelerated in 2015. He said the
graph includes the number of drug overdose deaths line to show
how the metrics "map onto each other, or not."
1:53:15 PM
DR. MYRSTOL introduced a section of his presentation titled
"Arrests for Drug Offenses." He relayed challenges with
determining how to analyze drug crime data. He said AJiC uses
arrest statistics. He differentiated between arrest statistics
and reported crime statistics.
1:54:48 PM
DR. MYRSTOL addressed slide 12, titled "Marijuana Arrest Rates."
The slide featured a line graph measuring possession arrests in
Alaska by gender. He noted that males are arrested for
marijuana possession at a much higher rate than females. He
pointed to a sharp decline in arrests following 2010. The graph
also featured a line measuring the annual number of drug
overdose deaths.
1:56:25 PM
DR. MYRSTOL addressed slide 13, titled "Narcotic Arrest Rates."
The slide featured a similar line graph measuring arrests for
cocaine, opium, heroin, and morphine, by gender. The graph
showed various dips and rises. It also featured a line
measuring the annual number of drug overdose deaths.
1:57:33 PM
DR. MYRSTOL addressed slide 14, titled "Synthetic Narcotic
Arrest Rates." The slide featured a similar line graph
measuring arrests by gender. Dr. Myrstol said synthetic
narcotics included fentanyl, Demerol, hydrocodone, oxycodone,
methadone, dilaudid, and buprenorphine. The graph showed a
spike in arrests beginning in 2002 and a rising trendline since.
The graph also featured a line measuring the annual number of
drug overdose deaths.
1:58:19 PM
DR. MYRSTOL addressed slide 15, titled "Other Non-Narcotic
Arrest Rates." The slide featured a similar line graph
measuring arrests by gender. Dr. Myrstol said this category
included amphetamine, methamphetamine, phencyclidine (PCP),
naloxone, ketamine, 3,4-Methylenedioxymethamphetamine (MDMA),
and barbiturates. The graph similarly showed a spike in arrests
beginning in 2002 and a rising trendline since. The graph also
featured a line measuring the annual number of drug overdose
deaths.
1:58:59 PM
DR. MYRSTOL addressed slide 16, titled "Getting from Description
to Explanation." He said it is difficult to articulate
potential links between illicit drug use and increases in
Alaska's crime rates. He said researchers and criminologists do
not have good data to confidently answer policymakers' questions
about potential links. He attributed this problem to politics
and financing. He said it is difficult for policymakers to
devote resources to long-term research.
DR. MYRSTOL detailed the history of the Arrestee Drug Abuse
Monitoring Program (ADAM) funded by the United States Department
of Justice. He described extensive data collection he conducted
for ADAM at the Anchorage Correctional Complex in the early
2000s. He said the data collected, which included self-reported
data, biometric data, and arrest records, enabled researchers to
establish links between drug use and criminal activity.
DR. MYRSTOL said he replicated the ADAM model in Arkansas. He
claimed that, with support, he could do the same for Alaska. "I
must be honest," he said. "We are suffering from an information
deficit.
2:04:25 PM
REPRESENTATIVE LEDOUX asked if Dr. Myrstol was drawing a
correlation between drug abuse and likelihood of committing a
criminal offense.
2:04:54 PM
DR. MYRSTOL answered no. He clarified that the data he
presented is merely descriptive and suggestive. He said he is
not prepared to declare a strong or weak correlation over time
between the number of drug overdose deaths in Alaska and the
arrests made for different categories of crime.
2:06:13 PM
REPRESENTATIVE LEDOUX said it sounds like there is a hypothesis
correlating drug use and criminal activity.
2:06:24 PM
DR. MYRSTOL said that is the working hypothesis in research and
policy conversations. He said AJiC does not have the data to
test the hypothesis.
2:06:53 PM
REPRESENTATIVE LEDOUX suggested that the hypothesis assumes
people who abuse drugs are more likely to commit crimes. She
asked about the inverse, that people who are "screwups" may be
more likely to use drugs. She compared it to the question of
whether the chicken came before the egg. She asked if this
thought was valid.
2:07:27 PM
DR. MYRSTOL said this was a reasonable hypothesis. He cited a
criminology concept called "low self-control." He said people
involved in criminal conduct tend to engage in low self-control
activities.
DR. MYRSTOL said that with access to better data, AJiC could
establish the relationship between drug use and criminal
offenses in Alaska. He noted though that even with an Alaska
version of the ADAM model, AJiC would not be able to establish
with absolute certainty that illicit drug use caused an
individual to commit a crime. Rather, he said, AJiC could
establish a timeline and temporal order for drug use and
criminal behaviors. He conceded that this would not be perfect
knowledge, but it would be a large step forward from the crude
information he presented earlier.
2:09:23 PM
REPRESENTATIVE LEDOUX asked if AJiC could establish which came
first the drug use or the crime with more research.
2:09:42 PM
DR. MYRSTOL said he could measure drug use prior to arrest on
the individual level as well as on a population level.
2:10:10 PM
REPRESENTATIVE LEDOUX asked if that would show if [the drug use
or the crime] came first. He noted that some individuals blame
their "antisocial activity" on drugs or alcohol.
2:10:27 PM
DR. MYRSTOL said as much as he would like to provide absolute
certainty, the proposed research would not. He explained the
data set would not be so comprehensive as to provide an
understanding of an individual's drug and criminal behavior over
the course of his or her life.
2:11:04 PM
REPRESENTATIVE LEDOUX referenced her time living in New York
City and her awareness of the risk of "random crime" versus how
she feels living in East Anchorage, where she feels safer. She
asked if Dr. Myrstol had any statistics measuring violent crimes
perpetrated by individuals not previously known to the victim.
2:13:10 PM
DR. MYRSTOL said that information exists depending on the type
of violent crime. For example, he said, there is detailed
information from sexual assault and sexual abuse cases detailing
the relationship between victim and offender. He remarked that,
because AJiC does not own that type of data, it is incumbent to
partner with agencies that do. He said, for example, AJiC could
partner with a police department to access the department's
electronic data or code the department's paper files to create a
data set for analysis.
2:14:37 PM
CHAIR CLAMAN mentioned that an overwhelming majority of sexual
assault and sexual abuse crimes in Alaska involve people who
know each other. He said situations involving people who are
strangers to each other make up a very small portion of the
broader picture. He said the same applies to violent crime in
general, both in Alaska and on a national scale. He drew a
comparison to South Africa, where the opposite is the case and
random violence is far more prevalent.
2:15:47 PM
REPRESENTATIVE LEDOUX clarified she was curious if the rise of
violent crime in Anchorage was related to random violent crime.
She asked why AJiC continues to study arrests for marijuana
possession post-legalization.
2:16:22 PM
DR. MYRSTOL explained that the FBIs uniform crime reporting
[UCR] dataset specifically measures arrests for marijuana. He
said most nationwide drug possession arrests tend to be for
marijuana. He said he was trying to be exhaustive in presenting
all four of the UCR arrest categories.
2:16:48 PM
REPRESENTATIVE SHAW asked if AJiC had any involvement with the
Alaska State Crime Lab and, if so, if its information is
helpful.
2:17:05 PM
DR. MYRSTOL answered that he does not have any involvement with
the Alaska State Crime Lab.
2:17:15 PM
REPRESENTATIVE WOOL remarked that the question everyone is
trying to answer is what the correlation is between drug use and
criminal activity. He commented that the crime statistics
presented indicated some positive trends, such as the steady
decline of property crime both nationally and in Alaska. He
said it would be interesting to learn if national drug arrests
and Alaska drug arrests were correlated. He asked what Alaska's
violent crime rate would look like if Anchorage were removed
from the dataset.
2:19:27 PM
DR. MYRSTOL answered that he has not run those analyses. He
said it can be done.
2:19:44 PM
REPRESENTATIVE WOOL reiterated he would like to see national
drug statistics to compare with Alaska drug statistics. He
discussed the introduction of fentanyl and why heroin users are
attracted to it.
2:20:40 PM
CHAIR CLAMAN said the national overdose rate is a lot worse than
Alaska's rate. He said, beginning around 1999, the national
overdose rate trendline rose so sharply that it "looks like a
hockey stick."
2:21:10 PM
DR. MYRSTOL confirmed this.
2:21:15 PM
REPRESENTATIVE WOOL asked if the ADAM data included drug crime
independent of other crime.
2:21:49 PM
DR. MYRSTOL answered yes. He added that the analysis could
differentiate between individuals booked on a [controlled
substances] charge and individuals booked on an [offenses
against the person] charge.
2:22:11 PM
REPRESENTATIVE WOOL asked if nonoffender populations are tested
as control groups.
2:22:51 PM
DR. MYRSTOL answered no. He said the intent and design of an
ADAM-like research program is to focus on jail populations that
serve as a "canary in the coal mine" for population-level
illicit drug trends.
2:23:10 PM
CHAIR CLAMAN asked what reasons, if any can be determined, have
contributed to Alaska not following national rates of violent
crime or property crime.
2:23:45 PM
DR. MYRSTOL said the Justice Center has not proceeded beyond
hypotheses and can only speculate. He offered one hypothesis
that property crime, having fallen so much over time, had
reached its theoretical floor and is now regressing to the mean.
He said it was compelling that the rise in violent crime "has
been cooking for a while" starting in the mid-1990s, whereas the
upturn in the property crime rate occurred more recently.
2:25:42 PM
CHAIR CLAMAN commented that the upward trend in property and
violent crime tracks with drug overdose deaths. He said it
suggests some connection between the two.
2:26:09 PM
DR. MYRSTOL agreed it is suggestive, but stressed that it is not
known how they are connected. He said they might be connected
through a third factor causing them both. He said they could be
directly related or, alternatively, the relationship between
them is actually spurious.
2:27:24 PM
REPRESENTATIVE WOOL noted that both property and violent crime
rates turned upward around 2014 and 2015. He referenced
testimony from a previous meeting by Captain Sean Case of the
Anchorage Police Department (APD). Captain Case had mentioned
how APD combated auto theft by concentrating resources on that
particular problem. He considered the possibility that
something happened in 2014 involving a deconcentrating of
resources that resulted in the crime spikes. He added that the
poor economy in Alaska in 2014 could have contributed.
2:29:59 PM
CHAIR CLAMAN asked Dr. Payne to present new rearrest data.
2:30:31 PM
DR. TROY PAYNE, Associate Professor, UAA Justice Center;
Associate Director, Alaska Justice Information Center,
University of Alaska Anchorage, began his PowerPoint
presentation [slide 18 in the committee packet] titled "Rearrest
within 7 days." He said AJiC had been tracking criminal justice
bills introduced earlier in the session and noticed a frequent
mentioning of the concept of "catch and release." He said AJiC
realized it could determine the extent to which people are
rearrested, which he defined as being caught, released, and
caught again within a short period of time.
2:31:45 PM
DR. PAYNE addressed slide 19, titled "Data Source." He said
Alaska statute requires agencies to report individually-
identified data to the Alaska Criminal Justice Commission
(ACJC). He said this data includes arrest and citation data
from DPS.
DR. PAYNE addressed slide 20, titled "DPS arrest & citation
Charge-level data." He said his data set included felony
arrests, felony citations, misdemeanor arrests, and misdemeanor
citations. He said his data set did not include infractions,
violations, and charges with no arrest tracking number.
2:32:47 PM
DR. PAYNE addressed slide 21, titled "Methods." He said the
dataset included 222,213 charges from July 1, 2014, to December
31, 2018. He explained that the Alaska Public Safety
Information Network (APSIN) assigns an identification number to
each unique individual. He said he used this information to
track whether a person had been rearrested. He listed other
data used in the analysis: arrest date, arrest statute, and
arrest tracking number (ATN), which he explained identifies
unique arrest events.
DR. PAYNE addressed slide 22, also titled "Methods." He walked
the committee through the process of arrest data analysis. He
said he identified the days between an individual's arrest and
any subsequent rearrest. He then counted the people who were
rearrested within seven days.
2:34:29 PM
DR. PAYNE addressed slides 23 and 24. He presented an animated
scatter plot measuring rearrests within seven days. The graph
was divided into three time periods: Before criminal justice
reform [beginning in July 2014], between criminal justice reform
and Senate Bill 54 [passed in the Thirtieth Alaska State
Legislature], and post-Senate Bill 54. He said the data
indicated no change in the number of rearrests within seven days
from July 2014 to July 2018.
2:36:03 PM
DR. PAYNE addressed slides 25 to 26. He presented an animated
line graph that displayed the same information as the scatter
plot. He restated his findings. He noted that the line graph
does not include violations of conditions of release (VCOR). He
explained this was because criminal justice reform made VCOR
noncriminal.
2:37:20 PM
DR. PAYNE addressed slides 27, which added VCOR to the previous
scatter plot and line graph. He concluded there is not a very
large difference in VCOR from before to after criminal justice
reform. He noted that the motivating question was whether there
was a difference in the number of people who were rearrested in
a short period of time before criminal justice reform compared
to after. He said the answer is "it appears not."
DR. PAYNE noted that rearrests are a real phenomenon. He
confirmed anecdotal evidence from law enforcement and public
defenders that the same people are indeed coming through the
system again and again. He restated that the motivation for the
research was to determine the similarity of the phenomenon
before and after criminal justice reform.
2:39:06 PM
DR. PAYNE addressed slide 29, titled "Summary." He said that
each week, about 26 people are arrested again within seven days
of their previous arrest. He restated that there is no evidence
of a large change in people rearrested within seven days from
before criminal justice reform to after. He said the trend is
flat, or a stationary time series.
DR. PAYNE mentioned that AJiC had studied rearrest trends over
different time periods. He addressed slides 30 to 38, which
featured line graphs measuring rearrests within 3, 7, 10, 14,
21, 30, 60, 90, and 180 days. He said the same conclusions
drawn for the seven-day dataset apply to the other time periods,
that rearrest rates have not significantly changed over time.
2:40:32 PM
REPRESENTATIVE SHAW asked why criminal justice reform has not
reaped benefits.
2:41:15 PM
CHAIR CLAMAN noted that Dr. Myrstol and Dr. Payne are not able
to comment on the full breadth of criminal justice reform.
2:41:26 PM
DR. PAYNE answered that he was presenting an answer to a very
narrow question. He restated AJiC's goal of providing
information to policymakers based on the data at its disposal.
He said AJiC is not able to give a comprehensive review of
criminal justice reform at this time. He restated his rearrests
findings.
2:42:13 PM
CHAIR CLAMAN confirmed that AJiC's study is independent research
that was not commissioned by ACJC or the legislature. He said
AJiC initiated the study as a response to public claims
attributing "catch and release" to criminal justice reform. He
restated that AJiC's findings show there is no data to support
those claims.
2:42:53 PM
REPRESENTATIVE LEDOUX said, on the other hand, she is not sure
there is data suggesting criminal justice reform has fixed
recidivism problems.
2:43:18 PM
CHAIR CLAMAN said there would soon be a discussion of recidivism
data.
2:43:28 PM
DR. PAYNE said if the public concern is about public safety with
regard to rearrests, the data indicates no difference after
criminal justice reform compared to before.
2:43:52 PM
REPRESENTATIVE WOOL noted that if criminal justice reform made
"catch and release" worse it would be backed up by data
indicating an increase in rearrests. He asked whether the
individuals in the dataset had spent time in jail or if they
were released after a brief period of detention.
2:44:38 PM
DR. PAYNE said the analysis only focused on whether an
individual was rearrested within seven days. He said it would
stand to reason that, because of criminal justice reform, more
people are being released from jail pretrial. He noted that
this was just speculative, and his analysis does not contain
that corresponding data.
2:45:36 PM
CHAIR CLAMAN referenced testimony from a previous meeting by the
state's public defender, Quinlan Steiner. Mr. Steiner had
referenced data that indicated pretrial release numbers have
risen while rearrest numbers have not.
2:46:06 PM
REPRESENTATIVE WOOL noted that Dr. Payne's graphs measured the
number of rearrests but did not include the number of people
released, so if 30 people were rearrested one cannot establish
whether that meant 30 people rearrested out of 300 or out of
1,000. He asked if release numbers have increased due to
changes in the bail system and if people released after multi-
year sentences are receiving better reentry services.
2:46:55 PM
DR. PAYNE clarified that the only individuals present in his
dataset are those rearrested within seven days, so it does not
include people who had served lengthy sentences in DOC
facilities. He referenced the Justice Center's role in
revalidating Alaska's pretrial risk assessment tool and said
that process will soon provide answers to Representative Wool's
question about release numbers.
2:47:55 PM
REPRESENTATIVE EASTMAN asked whether an individual who is
rearrested twice within seven days gets counted once or twice in
the dataset.
2:48:26 PM
DR. PAYNE answered that if an individual is arrested Monday,
Tuesday, Wednesday, Thursday, and Friday, they are in the data
set five times once per arrest.
2:48:53 PM
REPRESENTATIVE EASTMAN presented a second hypothetical wherein
an individual is arrested multiple times over a two-week span.
He asked how that would be reflected in the graphs that measured
by week.
2:49:08 PM
DR. PAYNE answered, "In each week in which [an individual] is
arrested and rearrested within seven days, you would add to that
count."
REPRESENTATIVE EASTMAN asked if the same person could have
committed all crimes reflected in the graph for a given week.
2:49:34 PM
DR. PAYNE answered, "hypothetically yes, actually no." He said
Representative Eastman was asking about the distribution of
arrests across arrestees. He said that information is not
reflected in the analysis.
2:49:57 PM
CHAIR CLAMAN addressed a report [hard copy included in the
committee packet] titled "Alaska Recidivism & Reentry" dated
March 4, 2019. He said Dr. Myrstol and Dr. Payne were present
when the report was presented. He asked if they had any
comments or observations on the recidivism data reported by DOC.
2:50:55 PM
DR. MYRSTOL clarified that the data analyses were from DOC, not
the Justice Center or AJiC. He referenced page six of the
report, titled "Alaska Recidivism Rates, which featured a line
graph titled "Recidivism Rates by Calendar Year." He said he
found the 6 percent drop in recidivism rates for individuals
released from 2011 to 2015 to be promising. He explained that
the data reflected a three-year follow-up period.
2:52:09 PM
CHAIR CLAMAN asked for confirmation that the 61.33 percent
recidivism rate for 2015 reflects conduct through the end of
2018.
DR. MYRSTOL answered that it is his understanding that DOC uses
a three-year follow-up period for release cohorts.
2:52:27 PM
DR. MYRSTOL called it encouraging that recidivism rates dropped
from [67.47] percent for the 2011 release cohort to [61.33]
percent for the 2015 release cohort.
2:53:09 PM
REPRESENTATIVE EASTMAN asked Dr. Myrstol to explain the term
reincarceration" as is presented in the packet.
DR. MYRSTOL answered that he cannot give an exact answer to what
that term means in the context of DOC's operations.
2:53:41 PM
CHAIR CLAMAN said it was his understanding that
"reincarceration" refers to a return to jail for any reason. He
clarified that the people DOC follows are those with felony
convictions. He said DOC does not track misdemeanors in the
same way.
2:53:54 PM
REPRESENTATIVE LEDOUX asked if it can be determined that the
declining recidivism rate is attributable to Senate Bill 91, or
if the rate was just going to decrease regardless.
2:54:12 PM
DR. MYRSTOL answered that he would not be comfortable
attributing the decline to any one thing. He said the trends
preceded criminal justice reform. He said he was encouraged
about the 2015 release cohort, which includes two follow-up
years after criminal justice reform. He said more time is
needed to study recidivism trends. He acknowledged the
frustration that comes with waiting out the lengthy follow-up
period.
2:55:54 PM
REPRESENTATIVE LEDOUX asked if any data exists for the period
after 2015.
2:56:15 PM
DR. MYRSTOL explained that the label "CY 2015" on the line graph
takes into account individuals who were released by DOC in 2015
and then followed for three years. He said the offense rate in
the graph is a cumulative rate of the people in that release
cohort who were arrested at least once within three years.
2:56:56 PM
REPRESENTATIVE WOOL referenced page eight of the report which
featured a line graph measuring recidivism excluding probation
and parole violations. He noted that the rate falls by about 30
percent. He asked if a modification to parole would bring
Alaska to a level of recidivism more in line with places with
famously low rates such as Norway.
2:58:03 PM
DR. MYRSTOL said he cannot speak to the topic of parole and how
Alaska's system compares to other nations or states. He said it
is important to understand the difference between VCOR and the
commission of new crimes. He said DOC's presentation of the
data suggests a distinction between the two.
2:59:47 PM
REPRESENTATIVE WOOL referenced page 10, which featured a table
measuring recidivism by offense class. He drew attention to the
category "parole/probation." He mused upon the various reasons
an individual may be rearrested and fall into that category.
DR. MYRSTOL said he would have to defer to DOC regarding
discussion of their offense categories.
3:00:36 PM
REPRESENTATIVE EASTMAN asked if the recidivism data takes into
account individuals who are rearrested in other states or
individuals who become deceased before the culmination of the
follow-up period.
3:01:38 PM
DR. MYRSTOL answered that DOC and the Justice Center tend to
rely only on Alaska data, so they do not have ready access to
information about individuals arrested in outside jurisdictions.
He said individuals who move out of state could be undercounted.
He added that individuals in a release cohort are not verified
for Alaska residency. After asking Representative Eastman to
repeat his question about deceased individuals, Dr. Myrstol
confirmed that those circumstances are reflected and controlled
for in the data analysis.
3:03:28 PM
CHAIR CLAMAN thanked Dr. Myrstol and Dr. Payne for their
presentations and input. He closed invited testimony.
3:04:15 PM
ADJOURNMENT
There being no further business before the committee, the House
Judiciary Standing Committee meeting was adjourned at 3:04 p.m.
| Document Name | Date/Time | Subjects |
|---|---|---|
| UAA Justice Center Presentation to House Judiciary Committee 3.8.19.pdf |
HJUD 3/8/2019 1:30:00 PM |
|
| DOC Recidivism Reduction Presentation (presented to ACJC March 4, 2019) 3.8.19.pdf |
HJUD 3/8/2019 1:30:00 PM |