Legislature(2025 - 2026)BUTROVICH 205

04/14/2026 09:00 AM Senate RESOURCES

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09:01:00 AM Start
09:01:46 AM SB280
11:01:12 AM Adjourn
* first hearing in first committee of referral
+ teleconferenced
= bill was previously heard/scheduled
-- Please Note Time Change --
+= SB 280 OIL & GAS PROPERTY TAX; MUNI TAX TELECONFERENCED
Heard & Held
-- Testimony <Invitation Only> --
+= SB 275 NATURAL GAS PROJECTS/INCOME TAX/SURCHARGE TELECONFERENCED
Scheduled but Not Heard
-- Testimony <Invitation Only> --
Bills Previously Heard/Scheduled
**Streamed live on AKL.tv**
                        SENATE RESOURCES                                                                                      
                         APRIL 14, 2026                                                                                       
                           9:01 A.M.                                                                                          
                                                                                                                                
                     INITIAL VERSION DRAFT                                                                                    
                              FOR                                                                                             
         BILLS AND PRESENTATIONS GERMANE TO 2ND SPECIAL                                                                       
                            SESSION                                                                                           
                                                                                                                                
MEMBERS PRESENT                                                                                                               
                                                                                                                                
Senator Cathy Giessel, Chair                                                                                                    
Senator Bill Wielechowski, Vice Chair                                                                                           
Senator Matt Claman                                                                                                             
Senator Forrest Dunbar                                                                                                          
Senator Scott Kawasaki                                                                                                          
Senator Robert Myers                                                                                                            
Senator George Rauscher                                                                                                         
                                                                                                                                
MEMBERS ABSENT                                                                                                                
                                                                                                                                
All members present                                                                                                             
                                                                                                                                
COMMITTEE CALENDAR                                                                                                            
                                                                                                                                
SENATE BILL NO. 280                                                                                                             
"An Act relating to the  taxation of certain natural gas pipeline                                                               
property;   relating    to   municipal    taxation   limitations;                                                               
establishing  an  alternative  volumetric   tax  on  natural  gas                                                               
throughput;  relating  to  the allocation  of  revenue  from  the                                                               
alternative  volumetric  tax;  and  providing  for  an  effective                                                               
date."                                                                                                                          
                                                                                                                                
     - HEARD & HELD                                                                                                             
                                                                                                                                
SENATE BILL NO.  275 "An Act relating to natural  gas and natural                                                               
gas  projects;   relating  to  the  Alaska   Gasline  Development                                                               
Corporation;   relating  to   the  powers   and  duties   of  the                                                               
Legislative Budget and Audit Committee;  relating to the value of                                                               
certain  oil  and gas;  relating  to  an  income tax  on  certain                                                               
natural  gas-related  entities;  relating  to  the  oil  and  gas                                                               
production tax; establishing a surcharge  on gas processed in the                                                               
state; and providing for an effective date."                                                                                    
                                                                                                                                
     - SCHEDULED BUT NOT HEARD                                                                                                  
                                                                                                                                
PREVIOUS COMMITTEE ACTION                                                                                                     
BILL: SB 280 SHORT TITLE: OIL & GAS PROPERTY TAX; MUNI TAX                                                                    
SPONSOR(s): RULES BY REQUEST OF THE GOVERNOR                                                                                    
                                                                                                                                
03/20/26       (S)       READ THE FIRST TIME - REFERRALS                                                                        
03/20/26       (S)       RES, FIN                                                                                               
03/23/26       (S)       RES WAIVED PUBLIC HEARING NOTICE,RULE                                                                  
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03/27/26       (S)       RES AT 3:30 PM BUTROVICH 205                                                                           
03/27/26       (S)       Heard & Held                                                                                           
03/27/26       (S)       MINUTE(RES)                                                                                            
03/30/26       (S)       RES AT 3:30 PM BUTROVICH 205                                                                           
03/30/26       (S)       Heard & Held                                                                                           
03/30/26       (S)       MINUTE(RES)                                                                                            
04/13/26       (S)       RES AT 3:30 PM BUTROVICH 205                                                                           
04/13/26       (S)       Heard & Held                                                                                           
04/13/26       (S)       MINUTE(RES)                                                                                            
04/14/26       (S)       RES AT 9:00 AM BUTROVICH 205                                                                           
                                                                                                                                
WITNESS REGISTER                                                                                                              
                                                                                                                                
DAN STICKEL, Chief Economist                                                                                                    
Department of Revenue (DOR)                                                                                                     
Juneau, Alaska                                                                                                                  
POSITION STATEMENT: Delivered a presentation on SB 280.                                                                       
                                                                                                                                
DAVID HERBERT, Commercial Analyst                                                                                               
Tax Division                                                                                                                    
Department of Revenue (DOR)                                                                                                     
Anchorage, Alaska                                                                                                               
POSITION STATEMENT: Answered questions on SB 280.                                                                             
                                                                                                                                
MATT KISSINGER, Commercial Director                                                                                             
Alaska Gasline Development Corporation (AGDC)                                                                                   
Anchorage, Alaska                                                                                                               
POSITION STATEMENT: Answered questions on SB 280.                                                                             
                                                                                                                                
RYAN FARNSWORTH, Assistant Attorney General                                                                                     
Department of Law                                                                                                               
Anchorage, Alaska                                                                                                               
POSITION STATEMENT: Answered questions on SB 280.                                                                             
                                                                                                                                
ACTION NARRATIVE                                                                                                              
                                                                                                                                
9:01:00 AM                                                                                                                    
CHAIR  GIESSEL called  the  Senate  Resources Standing  Committee                                                               
meeting to order  at 9:01 a.m. Present at the  call to order were                                                               
Senators Myers, Dunbar, Wielechowski,  Kawasaki, Claman and Chair                                                               
Giessel. Senator Rauscher arrived thereafter.                                                                                   
            SB 280-OIL & GAS PROPERTY TAX; MUNI TAX                                                                         
                                                                                                                                
9:01:46 AM                                                                                                                    
CHAIR GIESSEL announced the consideration  of SENATE BILL NO. 280                                                               
"An Act relating to the  taxation of certain natural gas pipeline                                                               
property;   relating    to   municipal    taxation   limitations;                                                               
establishing  an  alternative  volumetric   tax  on  natural  gas                                                               
throughput;  relating  to  the allocation  of  revenue  from  the                                                               
alternative  volumetric  tax;  and  providing  for  an  effective                                                               
date."                                                                                                                          
                                                                                                                                
9:02:31 AM                                                                                                                    
DAN  STICKEL,  Chief  Economist,  Department  of  Revenue  (DOR),                                                               
Juneau, Alaska, delivered a presentation on SB 280.                                                                             
                                                                                                                                
Before I jump back into the  presentation, I wanted to correct on                                                               
the  record two  things  that  I did  misspeak  on yesterday.  In                                                               
relation  to  the municipalities  that  TAPS  flows through,  the                                                               
Trans-Alaska  Oil  Pipeline,  the  three  primary  municipalities                                                               
receiving  revenue from  that are  the North  Slope Borough,  the                                                               
Fairbanks  North  Slope  Borough,  and  then  Valdez.  There  are                                                               
smaller  TAPS-related  impacts   to  Anchorage,  Mat-Su  Borough,                                                               
Whittier, and  Cordova. And then there  was a slide where  we had                                                               
talked about  what the state  property tax  would be for  the gas                                                               
pipeline under  current law  versus the proposal  in the  bill. I                                                               
misspoke on  that yesterday because  I was forgot to  reference a                                                               
provision of the bill where  under the alternative volumetric tax                                                               
for  a  portion  of  the  line located  in  a  municipality,  the                                                               
municipality  receives  all of  the  revenue,  whereas under  the                                                               
current  property tax,  there's  a split  between  the state  and                                                               
municipalities. In any  case, for 2035 under current  law and our                                                               
baseline  modeling  assumptions,  the state  would  receive  $239                                                               
million  of property  tax, and  under the  alternative volumetric                                                               
tax, that would be $9 million  for a $230 million difference. For                                                               
the municipalities, it would be  $497 million of current property                                                               
tax,  and then  under  the bill,  it would  be  $63.6 million  of                                                               
alternative volumetric tax.                                                                                                     
                                                                                                                                
9:04:22 AM                                                                                                                    
SENATOR GIESSEL                                                                                                                 
                                                                                                                                
I also wanted  to mention something that was  shared yesterday. I                                                               
will add that Matt Kessinger  has joined online. Yesterday it was                                                               
mentioned that the  initial gas supply for the  pipeline in phase                                                               
1 would  come from Pantheon Great  Bear. I touched base  with the                                                               
Alaska  Oil  Gas  Conservation Commission,  they  would  have  to                                                               
approve the  off-take of the  gas. At  this point Great  Bear has                                                               
not  applied for  any off-take  authorizations. I  wanted to  put                                                               
that out for information.                                                                                                       
                                                                                                                                
9:05:11 AM                                                                                                                    
SENATOR CLAMAN                                                                                                                  
                                                                                                                                
For  some clarity,  Mr. Stickel,  you just  ran out  a number  of                                                               
figures,  and  when I'm  looking  at  the  slides, if  you  could                                                               
actually tell  us where the figures  you just read off  go on the                                                               
slides that we have.                                                                                                            
                                                                                                                                
9:05:27 AM                                                                                                                    
MR. STICKEL                                                                                                                     
                                                                                                                                
The metric tax numbers to the  state would be from the insurance.                                                               
The current  law and  proposed law  property tax  and alternative                                                               
volumetric tax  numbers to the state  would be from slide  30 and                                                               
32. Also  relating to an earlier  slide, which would be  slide 18                                                               
where we lay  out the alternative volumetric  tax by municipality                                                               
and for the state.                                                                                                              
                                                                                                                                
9:06:07 AM                                                                                                                    
SENATOR CLAMAN                                                                                                                  
                                                                                                                                
Could you tell us which spaces to  put the numbers you gave us. I                                                               
don't really  necessarily know immediately  the figures  you read                                                               
off where they fit on these pieces that we're looking at.                                                                       
                                                                                                                                
9:06:25 AM                                                                                                                    
MR. STICKEL                                                                                                                     
                                                                                                                                
I would be looking at slide  18, and then this shows the revenues                                                               
that  the state  would  receive from  the alternative  volumetric                                                               
tax.  Some of  the  questions  from the  committee  were, if  the                                                               
project  were to  go forward  under current  law, what  would the                                                               
expected property tax value be.  Looking at 2035, for North Slope                                                               
Borough, the  expected property  tax would  be $288  million. For                                                               
Fairbanks  North Star  Borough,  it would  be  $0.4 million.  For                                                               
Denali Borough, it  would be $0. For Mat-Su Borough,  it would be                                                               
$30.5 million. For  Kenai, it would be $178 million.  For a total                                                               
to the  municipalities of $497  million, and then for  the state,                                                               
it  would be  $239  million, for  a total  property  tax of  $736                                                               
million under current law.                                                                                                      
                                                                                                                                
9:07:29 AM                                                                                                                    
SENATOR CLAMAN                                                                                                                  
                                                                                                                                
This is all in the FY35 column.                                                                                                 
MR. STICKEL                                                                                                                     
                                                                                                                                
These  would  be  annual  revenue. That  is  correct.  Under  the                                                               
current law with our base  line capital assumptions there will be                                                               
about a  $736 million dollars  per year property tax  burden from                                                               
the  project and  that  would  be reduced  to  about $74  million                                                               
dollars under this bill.                                                                                                        
                                                                                                                                
9:08:03 AM                                                                                                                    
SENATOR KAWASAKI                                                                                                                
                                                                                                                                
This may  be a  request to  help so  that it  would be  easier to                                                               
clarify if  we could get  something of an estimated  impact graph                                                               
that would  state what it  would be had  it not changed.  So, you                                                               
know, just all  those numbers that you read off  in 2035 would be                                                               
put into  a graph and  then, I mean, I  don't know how  you would                                                               
estimate, but,  you know, make  some sort  of a judgment  call on                                                               
how to  estimate what that approximate  would be so that  we kind                                                               
of figure out like lost revenue to municipalities.                                                                              
                                                                                                                                
9:08:38 AM                                                                                                                    
MR. STICKEL                                                                                                                     
                                                                                                                                
I'm seeing that it maybe  helpful to provide something similar to                                                               
slide 18 under current law. We will provide that.                                                                               
                                                                                                                                
9:08:53 AM                                                                                                                    
SENATOR CLAMAN                                                                                                                  
                                                                                                                                
I  take it  you'll  be doing  that  not just  for  FY 2035  under                                                               
current law, but the whole range of columns.                                                                                    
                                                                                                                                
MR. STICKEL                                                                                                                     
                                                                                                                                
What we'll  do is  provide this  slide under  what it  looks like                                                               
under current law. That would answer a lot of these questions.                                                                  
                                                                                                                                
9:09:27 AM                                                                                                                    
MR. STICKEL moved to slide 29, Analysis Summary; Current Tax Law                                                                
                                                                                                                                
This  slide summarized  the  key outputs  of  our modeling  under                                                               
current law  and our baseline  assumptions. This would be  if the                                                               
project went forward under current  law. We saw what the revenues                                                               
were to the  various stakeholders. As a reminder, the  top set of                                                               
numbers  here are  cash flows.  For the  upstream and  midstream,                                                               
these  represent gross  revenues before  any costs.  Highlighting                                                               
the break-even  costs of supply  numbers here, which is  $4.86 in                                                               
2033 for in-state  and then $9.07 for LNG  exported. Those become                                                               
important  numbers  as  we compare  to  different  scenarios  and                                                               
different market conditions.                                                                                                    
                                                                                                                                
9:10:38 AM                                                                                                                    
CHAIR GIESSEL                                                                                                                   
                                                                                                                                
For clarification,  gas commodity  charge, is  that the  price at                                                               
the wellhead.                                                                                                                   
                                                                                                                                
MR. STICKEL                                                                                                                     
                                                                                                                                
Yes.                                                                                                                            
                                                                                                                                
9:10:53 AM                                                                                                                    
MR. STICKEL  moved to slide  30, State Revenues by  Year; Current                                                               
Law.                                                                                                                            
                                                                                                                                
Slide  30  shows a  chart  of  annual  state revenues  under  the                                                               
current law analysis.  This would be if the  project went forward                                                               
under current law  without property tax relief.  We're looking at                                                               
a little over $200 million per  year of property tax, around $600                                                               
million per year if you  include royalties and corporate tax, and                                                               
then about a  billion dollars per year total.  These are revenues                                                               
just to the state once we add in the production tax impacts.                                                                    
                                                                                                                                
9:11:30 AM                                                                                                                    
CHAIR GIESSEL                                                                                                                   
                                                                                                                                
At  year 2033,  that peak,  and then  it plateaus,  this must  be                                                               
after the export facility is fully functional.                                                                                  
                                                                                                                                
MR. STICKEL                                                                                                                     
                                                                                                                                
That is correct.                                                                                                                
                                                                                                                                
9:11:51 AM                                                                                                                    
SENATOR DUNBAR                                                                                                                  
                                                                                                                                
Could you explain  the TBTU per year 1150. How  does that compare                                                               
to the 3.5 billion is usually the  number we see for when the LNG                                                               
is fully being exported. This  is a different measurement. How is                                                               
that, are you assuming that same amount being exported.                                                                         
                                                                                                                                
9:12:19 AM                                                                                                                    
MR. STICKEL                                                                                                                     
                                                                                                                                
The left  axis is the  revenues, and then  the right axis  is the                                                               
volumes. This one's  been labeled in trillions of  BTUs per year,                                                               
which a BTU  and a thousand cubic feet have  a rough equivalency,                                                               
but that  top threshold  is equivalent to  the 3.5  billion cubic                                                               
feet per day of full capacity of the project.                                                                                   
                                                                                                                                
9:13:00 AM                                                                                                                    
MR.  STICKEL  moved  to  slide  31,  Analysis  Summary;  Proposed                                                               
Legislation.                                                                                                                    
                                                                                                                                
Slide  31 summarizes  some of  the  key outputs  of the  modeling                                                               
under   the   proposed   legislation  and   with   the   baseline                                                               
assumptions.  Everything   the  same  as  slide   29,  except  we                                                               
implement SB 280  and the alternative volumetric  tax. Under this                                                               
analysis through  2062, there's $22.5 billion  of state revenues,                                                               
which is $7.2  billion less than current law.  There's $4 billion                                                               
of municipal revenues,  which is $13.3 billion  less. There's $60                                                               
billion to the upstream producers, that  is the same as the prior                                                               
analysis.  And then  there's $68.5  billion to  the midstream  in                                                               
revenue, which is  $1.5 billion less than under  current law. Why                                                               
is that  less is  because the  project, the  cost to  operate the                                                               
project is  less with the lower  property tax burden, and  we are                                                               
assuming  a 10  percent return  to the  midstream owner.  They're                                                               
making a  10 percent return on  a lower base when  we provide the                                                               
property  tax relief.  In  terms  of cost  of  supply, under  our                                                               
baseline, we get  a $4.43 break-even price for  the in-state cost                                                               
of supply,  which is 43  cents per thousand cubic  feet reduction                                                               
to in-state, and  then $8.48 per thousand cubic feet,  which is a                                                               
59-cent  per thousand  cubic  feet reduction  to  the price  that                                                               
would  allow  the  project  to  break  even  in  the  market  for                                                               
delivered LNG.                                                                                                                  
                                                                                                                                
9:14:52 AM                                                                                                                    
SENATOR MYERS                                                                                                                   
                                                                                                                                
I'm  looking  at your  cost  of  supply summaries.  The  in-state                                                               
versus the  LNG, the  gas commodity  charge, gas  treatment plant                                                               
toll, and pipeline  toll are slightly higher on  the LNG portion.                                                               
Why is that.                                                                                                                    
                                                                                                                                
9:15:12 AM                                                                                                                    
MR. STICKEL                                                                                                                     
                                                                                                                                
The  gas  commodity  charge  for  LNG  includes  some  additional                                                               
treatment costs.                                                                                                                
                                                                                                                                
9:15:28 AM                                                                                                                    
SENATOR MYERS                                                                                                                   
                                                                                                                                
We just clarified  that's at the wellhead and  so treatment would                                                               
come later,  but then you've  got your gas treatment  plant toll,                                                               
and that's,  if all  the gas  is run  through the  same treatment                                                               
plant, it  should be the same.  The producers don't care  if it's                                                               
getting  sold in  Anchorage or  if  it's getting  sold in  Japan.                                                               
They're going to charge the  same price. The gas treatment plant,                                                               
it's the  same plant.  It's all  going to  get charged  the same.                                                               
It's  the same  pipeline. That's  all  going to  get charged  the                                                               
same. The  LNG plant and the  ship and the overseas  shipping, of                                                               
course, that's  different, but we're  talking about the  same gas                                                               
running through the same infrastructure, so why is it different.                                                                
                                                                                                                                
9:16:06 AM                                                                                                                    
MR. STICKEL                                                                                                                     
                                                                                                                                
I was  hoping I  had Mr.  Herbert, my  commercial analyst  on the                                                               
line. I'll follow up  with that. I know we have  an answer and he                                                               
could answer it  off the top of  his head, but I'll  get that for                                                               
you guys.                                                                                                                       
                                                                                                                                
9:16:31 AM                                                                                                                    
CHAIR GIESSEL                                                                                                                   
                                                                                                                                
You've pointed out  the change in revenue for each  of these. How                                                               
much will this save the consumer  and have you calculated down to                                                               
that level.                                                                                                                     
                                                                                                                                
9:16:46 AM                                                                                                                    
MR. STICKEL                                                                                                                     
                                                                                                                                
We've  done  some initial  analysis  looking  at after  contracts                                                               
expire for  ENSTAR in  particular in 2033,  what are  the options                                                               
that  exist  there and  how  does  the  AKLG project  compare  to                                                               
imported gas  being the  primary concerns there.  We looked  at a                                                               
2023 study by BRG  that was done for ENSTAR, and  that had a cost                                                               
of imported  gas. We inflated that  price up to 2033  dollars and                                                               
it came  out to about  $17 per  thousand cubic feet  for imported                                                               
gas into the market. Our baseline  here for in-state gas would be                                                               
$4.43 per thousand  cubic feet. That would be a  savings of about                                                               
$12.50 per thousand cubic feet.  Looking at ENSTAR customers as a                                                               
total, which consume  about 34 billion cubic feet  per year, that                                                               
would  be about  a $358  million  annual savings  or about  $10.7                                                               
billion  over a  30-year time  horizon.  We looked  at ENSTAR  in                                                               
particular because  they have some readily  available information                                                               
around number of customers and  exactly what their prices are. If                                                               
we extrapolated that  from the 34 billion cubic  feet that ENSTAR                                                               
is using to a  larger number, such as the 65  to 70 billion cubic                                                               
feet  that are  consumed in  the  inlet or  potentially a  larger                                                               
number  if  there's,  you  know,  incentive,  if  new  demand  is                                                               
incentivized,  things like  if there  is a  Fairbanks spur  line,                                                               
some  sort of  an industrial  base  load consumer  could be  data                                                               
center,  agrium,  sales  to  mines, then  the  savings  could  be                                                               
significantly higher than those ENSTAR-only numbers.                                                                            
                                                                                                                                
9:19:09 AM                                                                                                                    
SENATOR WIELECHOWSKI                                                                                                            
                                                                                                                                
On that question  of the savings to consumers, it's  43 cents per                                                               
MCF is what the savings is for the property tax cuts, correct.                                                                  
                                                                                                                                
9:19:28 AM                                                                                                                    
MR. STICKEL                                                                                                                     
                                                                                                                                
43  cents  per thousand  cubic  feet  is  the comparison  of  the                                                               
delivered price  to utilities  under, if  you assume  the project                                                               
goes forward under current law versus under this bill.                                                                          
                                                                                                                                
9:19:50 AM                                                                                                                    
SENATOR WIELECHOWSKI                                                                                                            
                                                                                                                                
To do  a comparison  on how  much the people  of Alaska  would be                                                               
giving up, the state property  taxes are reduced by $230 million,                                                               
which  divide that  by 600,000  Alaskans  comes out  to $383  per                                                               
person. The  muni cut  is $434 million,  which is  probably $700,                                                               
$800 per  person, but the munis  are separate. I guess  the point                                                               
that  is curious  to me  is that  the amount  of, I  checked with                                                               
ENSTAR,  the amount  of natural  gas that  the average  Anchorage                                                               
residential customer uses is 139  MCF per year. When you multiply                                                               
that by  43 cents, you get  $58.38, which means that  the average                                                               
household  in  Anchorage  with that  43-cent  savings  is  saving                                                               
$58.38,  but they're  giving up  $239 million  in state  property                                                               
taxes, which  is the equivalent  of $383 per person.  A household                                                               
of four is  giving up almost $1,500 to get  its potential PFDs or                                                               
potential state services in exchange  for $58.38 of savings. Does                                                               
that sound about right.                                                                                                         
                                                                                                                                
9:21:26 AM                                                                                                                    
MR. STICKEL                                                                                                                     
                                                                                                                                
                                                                                                                                
9:21:56 AM                                                                                                                    
SENATOR WIELECHOWSKI                                                                                                            
                                                                                                                                
9:22:28 AM                                                                                                                    
SENATOR MYERS                                                                                                                   
                                                                                                                                
The question  is what is  the alternative.  If your view  is that                                                               
this  project will  not go  forward under  current law,  then the                                                               
comparison would be,  what is the alternative source  of gas, you                                                               
know, by  imports, which is what  I quoted. If your  view is that                                                               
this project will go forward  under current law, then the numbers                                                               
you cited would be more accurate.                                                                                               
                                                                                                                                
9:23:00 AM                                                                                                                    
SENATOR MYERS                                                                                                                   
                                                                                                                                
I was looking  at the cost of supply charts  that Mr. Stickle had                                                               
on both  slides 29 and  31. I believe  they're the same  on these                                                               
three  pieces.  The  LNG break-even  price  versus  the  in-state                                                               
break-even  price, the  gas commodity  charge, the  gas treatment                                                               
plant toll,  and the  pipeline toll are  all slightly  higher for                                                               
the LNG  price. And I'm  just curious as  to why, since  it's the                                                               
same gas and the same infrastructure.                                                                                           
                                                                                                                                
9:23:42 AM                                                                                                                    
DAVID HERBERT,  Commercial Analyst,  Tax Division,  Department of                                                               
Revenue (DOR), Anchorage, Alaska, answered questions on SB 280.                                                                 
                                                                                                                                
Something we  try and highlight  in these  is that these  cost of                                                               
supply are based off of the price  to the end consumer, be it the                                                               
utilities  or LNG  customers. And  as a  result, the  total cents                                                               
here are  based off of the  output volumes. For the  LNG, there's                                                               
additional fuel  that needs to  be transported down the  gas line                                                               
process in  order to  run the liquefaction  plant, and  that adds                                                               
the cost there across the board.                                                                                                
                                                                                                                                
9:24:33 AM                                                                                                                    
SENATOR MYERS                                                                                                                   
                                                                                                                                
To clarify,  so effectively  what I'm hearing  is because  of the                                                               
extra volume needed, I'm assuming  that means we're going to need                                                               
to run  pipelines out to Point  Thomson or a couple  of the other                                                               
North Star  Endicott to get  the gas. You're factoring  that, the                                                               
cost of  that extra infrastructure  being built into  those extra                                                               
costs going up a little bit.                                                                                                    
                                                                                                                                
9:25:02 AM                                                                                                                    
MR. HERBERT                                                                                                                     
                                                                                                                                
In this  case, those costs are  already baked into both  of these                                                               
things,  but in  order to  run the  liquefaction plant  itself, a                                                               
certain amount  of additional  gas needs  to be  transported just                                                               
for that.  Instead of letting  the cost associated with  that gas                                                               
get incorporated  into both  sides of it,  they're only  shown on                                                               
the LNG, so the in-state customers aren't subsidizing that.                                                                     
9:25:37 AM                                                                                                                    
SENATOR MYERS                                                                                                                   
                                                                                                                                
It's the  cost of the LNG.  It's the extra gas  that is necessary                                                               
in order  to run the  LNG plant and  that's just back  added into                                                               
the other pieces.                                                                                                               
                                                                                                                                
9:26:00 AM                                                                                                                    
MR. STICKEL moved  to slide 32, State Revenues  by Year; Proposed                                                               
Legislation.                                                                                                                    
                                                                                                                                
Slide  32 is  our same  annual revenue  chart under  the proposed                                                               
analysis. Looks  very similar  to the  current law  slide, except                                                               
it's about  $230 million per year  lower across the board  due to                                                               
removing that property tax and  replacing it with the alternative                                                               
volumetric tax.  State revenue from  the AKLNG project  with this                                                               
bill passed is looking at about $800 million per year total.                                                                    
                                                                                                                                
9:26:37 AM                                                                                                                    
SENATOR DUNBAR                                                                                                                  
                                                                                                                                
Two things. First,  just to reiterate what I  said yesterday, one                                                               
of my primary goals in this bill,  if I'm going to support it, is                                                               
to  prevent  that  happening  in  2028  through  2032  where  our                                                               
revenues  go  negative.  If  we're going  to  produce  that  much                                                               
revenue  in the  future, there's  no  reason to  have any  period                                                               
where we  can't put those  costs out  into the future.  So that's                                                               
one. The  second is, I think  if you were a  layperson looking at                                                               
this  graph, it  looks like  the total  government revenue  here,                                                               
approaches is  quite close to the  line in the previous  graph on                                                               
30. It's actually over the line  at the time. You might interpret                                                               
that as saying the government is  taking the vast majority of the                                                               
revenues, if  that is  indeed the  revenues. If  you look  at the                                                               
prior slide and you've got  the upstream owners and the midstream                                                               
owners and  all of them together,  that adds up to  177.5 billion                                                               
approximately. About  72.5 percent of  it is taken by  the owners                                                               
and  28.5 percent  is taken  by the  government. The  government,                                                               
less than  30 percent  of the  total revenue  is captured  by the                                                               
government,  which is  probably fair.  The vast  majority of  the                                                               
revenue goes to  the producers and the midstream  owners. I guess                                                               
one of my questions is, why  doesn't this graph reflect that. Why                                                               
isn't  the gap  between the  lines and  the revenue  equal to  70                                                               
percent of  the revenues produced.  Does that make sense.  If you                                                               
look at the  prior slide, 72.5 percent of all  revenue related to                                                               
this  project  is  captured  by   the  upstream  owners  and  the                                                               
midstream owners. Good. But this graph  makes it look like it's a                                                               
much tighter gap between the  revenues produced and the state and                                                               
all government revenue. What am I missing there.                                                                                
9:28:53 AM                                                                                                                    
MR. STICKEL                                                                                                                     
                                                                                                                                
This chart  shows two things. This  shows total gas sales  on the                                                               
right axis  and the  dotted line, and  then total  state revenues                                                               
only in  the stacked bar  charts. This  chart is only  looking at                                                               
that  state revenue  number  and  how that  breaks  out into  the                                                               
different  components. We  could certainly  prepare a  chart that                                                               
shows all the revenues to  the different entities, and that would                                                               
demonstrate that  the revenue to the  state is a fraction  of the                                                               
total revenue generated by the project.                                                                                         
                                                                                                                                
9:29:33 AM                                                                                                                    
SENATOR DUNBAR                                                                                                                  
                                                                                                                                
I  don't understand  what  the  dotted line  was.  I thought  the                                                               
dotted line was trying to  illustrate the total revenue generated                                                               
by the  project. Why  does the  dotted line  exist if  that's not                                                               
what it's showing.                                                                                                              
                                                                                                                                
9:29:46 AM                                                                                                                    
MR. STICKEL                                                                                                                     
                                                                                                                                
What the  dotted line represents  is gas sales from  the project.                                                               
The reason  we included that  is we wanted  to show the  start of                                                               
the project where there are no  gas sales. We wanted to show what                                                               
the impact  on state  revenue is  for the  first couple  of years                                                               
when there's only in-state gas sales.  Then we wanted to show the                                                               
ramp up  period where the  full export project is  coming online.                                                               
Then to show that the  significant state revenues really do start                                                               
in 2033 when the project is fully operational.                                                                                  
                                                                                                                                
9:30:23 AM                                                                                                                    
SENATOR DUNBAR                                                                                                                  
                                                                                                                                
I don't think  this is intentional by the  Department of Revenue,                                                               
but that is  a wildly misleading graph because people  look at it                                                               
and they  associate the dotted  line with  the revenue on  the y-                                                               
axis on  the left.  What you're  saying is,  no, the  dotted line                                                               
only applies to on  the right. You see what I  mean. Why not just                                                               
make a  dotted line  that tracks with  the revenues,  which would                                                               
also  track  with  the  gas  sales,  but  they'd  show  a  vastly                                                               
different. They  would show  this line would  go way  three times                                                               
off the  graph to  show all  the profits being  made, or  all the                                                               
revenue  being generated,  perhaps  not profits.  Does that  make                                                               
sense.                                                                                                                          
                                                                                                                                
9:31:10 AM                                                                                                                    
MR. STICKEL                                                                                                                     
                                                                                                                                
I understand  the alternative slide that  you're discussing. We'd                                                               
be happy to provide a version of that.                                                                                          
                                                                                                                                
SENATOR DUNBAR                                                                                                                  
                                                                                                                                
Please don't  put this slide  into the public like  this, because                                                               
again, I think unless there's some  way to be very clear, because                                                               
it even says  LNG and gas sales, which implies  that there's some                                                               
dollar  figure  on the  bottom  there  with  the dotted  line.  A                                                               
person's going  to look at this  and say, man, the  government is                                                               
taking the vast majority of  the revenue being generated here. If                                                               
they  look  at  the  thing  on slide  30,  they'll  come  to  the                                                               
conclusion that the government revenue  exceeds the total revenue                                                               
for a portion.  No wonder they need this giant  tax break. That's                                                               
not  at  all  what  this  is   showing.  I  don't  think  it  was                                                               
intentional. I  hope we can  change this  before it goes  out for                                                               
broader public consumption, Madam Chair.                                                                                        
                                                                                                                                
9:32:05 AM                                                                                                                    
MR. STICKEL                                                                                                                     
                                                                                                                                
Absolutely  not  intentional.  I  see that  we  can  improve  our                                                               
labeling  on this  slide if  we're going  to include  that dotted                                                               
line, and we'll take a look at that.                                                                                            
                                                                                                                                
9:32:18 AM                                                                                                                    
SENATOR MYERS                                                                                                                   
                                                                                                                                
On 29  and 31, when  we had the  dollar figures for  the upstream                                                               
motors and  the midstream  motors, I believe  you said  that that                                                               
was  not profit,  that was  strictly cash  flow. If  we, once  we                                                               
subtract it  out the  upstream and  midstream costs,  then those,                                                               
the actual  profit would be  significantly smaller than  that. Is                                                               
that accurate.                                                                                                                  
                                                                                                                                
9:32:44 AM                                                                                                                    
MR. STICKEL                                                                                                                     
                                                                                                                                
That's accurate.                                                                                                                
                                                                                                                                
9:32:54 AM                                                                                                                    
SENATOR CLAMAN                                                                                                                  
                                                                                                                                
Let's  start at  slide 32.  Under  this proposal,  we often  talk                                                               
about how the gas line is  going to bring enormous revenue to the                                                               
state, and particularly at least  when we sit in the legislature,                                                               
we think, is this going to be  a big increase in revenue to state                                                               
government. I'm  looking at slide 32.  Never in a single  year do                                                               
the  revenues to  the state  exceed  a billion  dollars. I'm  not                                                               
minimizing that a billion dollars is  no small amount of money to                                                               
the state, but  I think about how much we're  drawing annually on                                                               
the  POMV   draw  from  the   earnings  reserve  to   fund  state                                                               
government, which  is over $3 billion  and has been for  the last                                                               
few  years. I  look  at this,  which shows  less  than a  billion                                                               
dollars coming  to the state in  the best years. If  this project                                                               
has potential  revenue to  the state, is  there some  other means                                                               
the state can achieve great  revenue from this particular project                                                               
because  it doesn't  look  like it's  coming  from royalties  and                                                               
production  taxes.  Not to  understate  that  we don't  need  the                                                               
revenue, but this doesn't look like  a game changer. Where is the                                                               
big revenue to the state in the project.                                                                                        
                                                                                                                                
9:34:23 AM                                                                                                                    
MR. STICKEL                                                                                                                     
                                                                                                                                
I  would  suggest   that  $800  million  dollars  a   year  is  a                                                               
significant increase to state revenue.                                                                                          
                                                                                                                                
SENATOR CLAMAN                                                                                                                  
                                                                                                                                
I agree it's a significant  increase but it doesn't really change                                                               
the  picture  dramatically  because  $800  million  is  about  25                                                               
percent of the POMV draw from the earnings reserve.                                                                             
                                                                                                                                
9:34:47 AM                                                                                                                    
MR. STICKEL                                                                                                                     
                                                                                                                                
I was  going to  add, gas  is a lower  value commodity  than oil.                                                               
That is a truth. And so when you're  looking at a gas, there is a                                                               
lesser amount  of profit  overall with gas  than oil,  and that's                                                               
something to keep in mind.                                                                                                      
                                                                                                                                
9:34:54 AM                                                                                                                    
SENATOR RAUSCHER joined the meeting.                                                                                            
                                                                                                                                
9:35:08 AM                                                                                                                    
CHAIR GIESSEL                                                                                                                   
                                                                                                                                
That's a really important point  that we often forget, because we                                                               
are used to  dealing with oil. I'll just interject  that. But the                                                               
other point  you make, Senator  Claman, because  you're referring                                                               
to  the percent  of market  value that  is available  for general                                                               
fund use, and  we are proposing actually reducing  the percent of                                                               
market  value  percent  from  5   percent  down  to  4.5  percent                                                               
progressively over  a five-year period,  which if you  apply that                                                               
to this graph, it will hit at  about 2032, 2033. I don't have the                                                               
bill in front of me that's  being considered, but we need to take                                                               
that into consideration also, though  this is not our only source                                                               
of revenue.                                                                                                                     
                                                                                                                                
9:35:55 AM                                                                                                                    
SENATOR CLAMAN                                                                                                                  
                                                                                                                                
The question  I'm raising is,  if there is this  potentially more                                                               
significant win for  the state than just what's  on these graphs,                                                               
where is  that. Is that  somehow that we have  ownership interest                                                               
or  greater ownership  interest in  pieces of  the pipeline  that                                                               
will  bring us  revenue  separate from  royalties and  production                                                               
taxes.                                                                                                                          
                                                                                                                                
9:36:23 AM                                                                                                                    
MR. STICKEL                                                                                                                     
                                                                                                                                
That's certainly  an option that  the legislature  could consider                                                               
to  have  an  ownership  interest,  you  know,  broader  economic                                                               
impacts,  economic development  in the  state. And  then what  we                                                               
haven't  really  looked  at  is the  impact  on  exploration  and                                                               
development above  and beyond what's  in the revenue  forecast. I                                                               
spoke to that  a little bit yesterday in some  of the slides, but                                                               
this idea that  when you have a sales mechanism  for gas, that it                                                               
makes exploration  and development  more attractive  generally on                                                               
the slope.                                                                                                                      
                                                                                                                                
9:37:11 AM                                                                                                                    
SENATOR WIELECHOWSKI                                                                                                            
                                                                                                                                
Do you  have any idea what  the costs are to  the upstream owners                                                               
to produce  $1.50 worth of  gas are. Right now,  my understanding                                                               
is they're  injecting like  8 billion cubic  feet a  day, they're                                                               
just reinjecting it.  I would imagine the costs  to the producers                                                               
are pennies,  extremely low.  Does that  sound, is  that probably                                                               
about right.                                                                                                                    
                                                                                                                                
9:37:38 AM                                                                                                                    
MR. STICKEL                                                                                                                     
                                                                                                                                
We do  have assumptions around  what the incremental cost  of the                                                               
gas and  associated new  oil will  be. Those  are baked  into the                                                               
model.  I don't  have  those at  my fingertips,  but  we do  have                                                               
assumptions that we've developed with AGDC.                                                                                     
                                                                                                                                
9:37:55 AM                                                                                                                    
SENATOR WIELECHOWSKI                                                                                                            
                                                                                                                                
Profits for industry, I guess. If  you have a $1.50 gas, which is                                                               
what you're estimating, the state's  share is $1.50 times, we get                                                               
a 12.5  percent royalty, we  get a  13 percent gross  tax, that's                                                               
25.5 percent. That  comes out to $38.25. Corporate  income tax is                                                               
a little bit, not as much as  it could be, but the property taxes                                                               
are very little.  It's maybe $0.40, I'm  guessing. The producers,                                                               
on the  other hand,  are getting it  costs virtually  nothing for                                                               
them. They're  just producing  it and  reinjecting it  right now.                                                               
They're probably  making a dollar  in MCF. Does that  sound about                                                               
right.                                                                                                                          
                                                                                                                                
9:38:56 AM                                                                                                                    
MR. STICKEL                                                                                                                     
                                                                                                                                
I would  have to look at  our assumptions to validate  that exact                                                               
number.                                                                                                                         
                                                                                                                                
9:39:04 AM                                                                                                                    
SENATOR WIELECHOWSKI                                                                                                            
                                                                                                                                
Can you provide us with that data.                                                                                              
                                                                                                                                
MR. STICKEL                                                                                                                     
                                                                                                                                
Yes.  We'd  be happy  to  do  that. As  I  mentioned  we do  have                                                               
assumptions  baked  into the  modeling  for  incremental cost  at                                                               
Prudhoe Bay and Point Thomson.                                                                                                  
                                                                                                                                
9:39:22 AM                                                                                                                    
CHAIR GIESSEL                                                                                                                   
                                                                                                                                
The other thing to consider here  is what I shared at the outset.                                                               
The idea that  Pantheon is going to be the  initial source of gas                                                               
is a questionable assumption, since  they haven't applied for gas                                                               
off-take  yet. Not  thinking that  there doesn't  have to  be gas                                                               
treatment costs at the very  beginning is a flawed assumption, in                                                               
my opinion.                                                                                                                     
                                                                                                                                
9:39:57 AM                                                                                                                    
SENATOR RAUSCHER                                                                                                                
                                                                                                                                
This regards to  the question by Senator  Wielechowski. When they                                                               
reinject  air, they  have different  reasons for  it to  bring up                                                               
more oil.                                                                                                                       
                                                                                                                                
In regards to the question  by Senator Wielekowski. When they re-                                                               
inject and inject,  they have different reasons for  it, to bring                                                               
up  more oil.  Sometimes they  have too  much gas  that comes  up                                                               
because of  the oil that they're  taking out of the  ground. This                                                               
is  not  a  complete  search  for gas.  This  is  something  that                                                               
happened along  the way, which  may be too  much for them  to re-                                                               
inject just  to bring  up new  oil or  whatever, but  when you're                                                               
looking at actually  providing the gas that  we're providing here                                                               
and liquefying and  getting it in the pipeline, I  think that the                                                               
costs  go up  considerably  other than  why they're  re-injecting                                                               
what you're talking  about there and the cost that  it seems like                                                               
would  be  almost nil.  These  are  two  different types  of  gas                                                               
supplies that we're trying to come  up with and volume that we're                                                               
needing. That's just my opinion from working up there.                                                                          
                                                                                                                                
9:40:59 AM                                                                                                                    
SENATOR MYERS                                                                                                                   
                                                                                                                                
To go back to Senator Claman's  question about the benefit to the                                                               
state.  We're talking  about dollar  benefit in  terms of  direct                                                               
royalties and taxes,  but I mean, the other benefit  to the state                                                               
would  be  lower  energy costs  for  residents,  hopefully  fewer                                                               
people leave  the state because  it gets more affordable  to live                                                               
here.  Maybe some  businesses become  more  profitable. We  start                                                               
some businesses.  You mentioned Agrium potentially  restarting up                                                               
if they've got a decent,  a reliable supply again. Something gets                                                               
thrown on the property tax  rolls with Kenai. If other businesses                                                               
can get  started, those increase  the property tax  rolls locally                                                               
for a  lot of places. At  Department of Revenue, do  you have any                                                               
modeling that can  estimate those types of  benefits, even though                                                               
they  aren't necessarily  direct benefits  to the  state treasury                                                               
because, we don't  have a broad-based tax. Can you  model some of                                                               
those other  benefits to municipalities  or to the  population in                                                               
general.                                                                                                                        
                                                                                                                                
9:42:00 AM                                                                                                                    
MR. STICKEL                                                                                                                     
                                                                                                                                
That's something  we've been looking  at, how we can  model those                                                               
broader economic  benefits. I'm not  sure that's quite  ready for                                                               
prime time, but qualitatively, we  can certainly speak to some of                                                               
what we're looking at. It's  things like light data centers, like                                                               
a restart of  an Agrium plant, like a line  out to support mining                                                               
operations like  the Donlin mine,  like the Fairbanks  spur line.                                                               
And certainly  those have  economic impacts  that go  beyond just                                                               
the direct revenues.                                                                                                            
                                                                                                                                
9:42:40 AM                                                                                                                    
CHAIR GIESSEL                                                                                                                   
I  appreciate  what you  spoke  about  in  terms of  opening  and                                                               
restarting businesses and that resulting,  of course, in property                                                               
tax  and  so  forth.  Remember   under  4356-022,  all  municipal                                                               
property taxes,  ad valorem  sales tax,  municipal gross  and net                                                               
income,  license  fees,  excise, municipal  charges,  et  cetera,                                                               
related  to  consumption,  whatever, are  all  prohibited  during                                                               
construction, which is the most  impactful time. You see the line                                                               
there,  it actually,  the line  starts  way over  in 2022.  We're                                                               
actually  in 2026  already. But  those, that  prohibition on  any                                                               
municipal taxes of any kind  continues until they reach a billion                                                               
cubic  feet, which  this optimistically  is  projecting in  2033.                                                               
That's  a  pretty optimistic  projection.  It  could be  a  while                                                               
before that  idea of  additional municipal  income would  come to                                                               
fruition. Just some practical considerations.                                                                                   
                                                                                                                                
9:43:54 AM                                                                                                                    
SENATOR MYERS                                                                                                                   
                                                                                                                                
I understand  that we may  need to  clarify that because  I think                                                               
that the point  of the bill here  is to say we don't  want to tax                                                               
them  while they're  in the  middle of  construction, but  again,                                                               
there  will  be  some  spillover  effects, and  we  do  want  the                                                               
municipalities and the like to be  able to capture those. I'm all                                                               
in favor  of clarifying that.  To say,  I don't think  it's quite                                                               
accurate to say, because that's what  the language is in the bill                                                               
right now,  that for example,  the Kenai,  I wouldn't be  able to                                                               
tax the Agrium  plant just because they're using  the gas because                                                               
that  doesn't  have  anything  to do  with  the  construction.  I                                                               
understand we may  need to clarify that, but  just thinking about                                                               
where the benefits go.                                                                                                          
                                                                                                                                
9:44:39 AM                                                                                                                    
SENATOR WIELECHOWSKI                                                                                                            
                                                                                                                                
On  the pipeline,  can you  go back  a slide  to 31.  OK, so  I'm                                                               
struck by  the number, the  disparity in cumulative to  2062. You                                                               
got  $22 billion  to  the  state, $22  billion  to  the feds,  $3                                                               
billion  to the  uni, $60  billion  to upstream,  $68 billion  to                                                               
midstream. And I'm  trying to figure out what's the  share is. We                                                               
talk about  a third, a  third for  the state, feds,  upstream. In                                                               
this  case, we  got midstream.  What profit  do you  estimate the                                                               
midstream owners are getting from that $68 billion.                                                                             
                                                                                                                                
9:45:24 AM                                                                                                                    
MR. STICKEL                                                                                                                     
                                                                                                                                
Our model assumes a 10 percent rate of return for midstream.                                                                    
9:45:34 AM                                                                                                                    
SENATOR WIELECHOWSKI                                                                                                            
                                                                                                                                
That would be $6.8 billion dollars.                                                                                             
                                                                                                                                
9:45:40 AM                                                                                                                    
MR. STICKEL                                                                                                                     
                                                                                                                                
Roughly.                                                                                                                        
                                                                                                                                
9:45:46 AM                                                                                                                    
SENATOR WIELECHOWSKI                                                                                                            
                                                                                                                                
On the  upstream do  you have  any sense on  what kind  of profit                                                               
they are looking at.                                                                                                            
                                                                                                                                
MR. STICKEL                                                                                                                     
I don't have that number at the top of my head.                                                                                 
                                                                                                                                
9:46:02 AM                                                                                                                    
SENATOR WIELECHOWSKI                                                                                                            
                                                                                                                                
I'm curious about those federal  numbers. Why is there a negative                                                               
federal number from [2042].                                                                                                     
                                                                                                                                
MR. STICKEL                                                                                                                     
                                                                                                                                
The  federal revenues  represent  two things,  one  is a  federal                                                               
corporate  income tax  which would  be we  would assume  a slight                                                               
offset to  federal corporate  income taxes  during the  build out                                                               
phase, when there  is money being laid out.  Also, we're assuming                                                               
enefits  from the  45 Q  credits,  which are  credits for  carbon                                                               
capture which apply to the gas treatment plant. Those are the                                                                   
                                                                                                                                
The  federal revenues  represent  two things.  One  is a  federal                                                               
corporate income tax,  which would be, we would  assume, a slight                                                               
offset  to federal  corporate income  taxes during  the build-out                                                               
phase when  there's money  being laid  out. Also,  we're assuming                                                               
benefits  from the  45Q  credits, which  are  credits for  carbon                                                               
capture which would  apply to the gas treatment  plant. Those are                                                               
a  positive  benefit to  the  project,  but  an outlay  from  the                                                               
federal government during the initial years of the project.                                                                     
                                                                                                                                
9:46:54 AM                                                                                                                    
SENATOR WIELECHOWSKI                                                                                                            
So those 45Q  credits, I assume, those go to  the upstream owners                                                               
or the midstream owners. What's  your expectation on that and are                                                               
you reflecting the shift to those owners in this slide.                                                                         
                                                                                                                                
MR. STICKEL                                                                                                                     
                                                                                                                                
We assume  that those 45Q  credits are realized by  the midstream                                                               
owner at  the gas  treatment plant,  and that  is baked  into our                                                               
modeling, yes.                                                                                                                  
                                                                                                                                
9:47:25 AM                                                                                                                    
SENATOR WIELECHOWSKI                                                                                                            
                                                                                                                                
Explain how you're  valuing that. That's, so you've got  a ton of                                                               
carbon, maybe explain  more, and explain how  that's reflected in                                                               
here, and how many tons you're estimating.                                                                                      
                                                                                                                                
9:47:47 AM                                                                                                                    
MR. STICKEL                                                                                                                     
                                                                                                                                
I'll see what I  have at my fingertips. I may  have to defer this                                                               
one to my lifeline.                                                                                                             
                                                                                                                                
9:48:09 AM                                                                                                                    
MR. HERBERT                                                                                                                     
                                                                                                                                
We right  now are estimating 7.5  million tons of CO2  removed at                                                               
the GTP plant per year once  everything is at full operations and                                                               
that is  sequestered earning  a credit per  ton of,  according to                                                               
the current  45Q law, which is  $85 per ton today,  but increases                                                               
with inflation over  time. So by the time the  project is running                                                               
at  full  capacity, we're  talking  about  $100  per ton  of  CO2                                                               
sequestered, which  combining those two numbers  together for the                                                               
first 12 years  of the project, which is the  length of those 45Q                                                               
credits we're  talking about, approximately $750  to $900 million                                                               
over  that time  frame as  credits  that are  either cashable  or                                                               
immediately  transferable  from  the federal  government  to  the                                                               
project.                                                                                                                        
                                                                                                                                
9:50:03 AM                                                                                                                    
SENATOR WIELECHOWSKI                                                                                                            
                                                                                                                                
where are  you anticipating  that the carbon  will be  stored. Is                                                               
there a well that's been approved.  I know we had approved giving                                                               
the  department  that authority  to  go  forward on  getting  EPA                                                               
authority to  start this  process. Have you  done that  and where                                                               
are we at in that process.                                                                                                      
9:50:28 AM                                                                                                                    
MR. STICKEL                                                                                                                     
                                                                                                                                
That would be a good question for Matt Kissinger with the AGDC.                                                                 
                                                                                                                                
9:50:43 AM                                                                                                                    
MATT KISSINGER,  Commercial Director, Alaska  Gasline Development                                                               
Corporation (AGDC),  Anchorage, Alaska, answered questions  on SB
280.                                                                                                                            
                                                                                                                                
There are two  ways to sequester your CO2 under  the 45Q credits.                                                               
There  is  the  permanent   geological  sequestration,  and  then                                                               
there's  use for  EOR. As  this project  has developed,  the base                                                               
case assumption  has always been  that the CO2 would  be returned                                                               
to Prudhoe  Bay. In fact,  it's a  distal part of  the reservoir,                                                               
which is the  target area for it  to go into. By  putting it into                                                               
Prudhoe  Bay,  you're just  by  default  taking the  EOR  credits                                                               
rather  than  the  permanent   geological  storage  credits.  The                                                               
enhanced  oil  recovery mechanism  is  the  pressure itself  from                                                               
putting those  molecules back into  the reservoir, and  then, you                                                               
know,  there's  also the  potential  that  the  CO2 would  be  so                                                               
miscible and be able  to withdraw more oil just to  do it even in                                                               
the reservoir.                                                                                                                  
                                                                                                                                
9:51:48 AM                                                                                                                    
SENATOR DUNBAR                                                                                                                  
                                                                                                                                
If we  go forward one  slide, and  you must have  mentioned this,                                                               
but I  must have missed it.  What's going on in  2038 here again.                                                               
There are two  different shades of blue here, I  think that's the                                                               
property tax  and ABT,  but it  might be  the production  tax. It                                                               
just disappears  for a  year and  then it  comes back.  Could you                                                               
explain that again.                                                                                                             
                                                                                                                                
9:52:10 AM                                                                                                                    
MR. STICKEL                                                                                                                     
                                                                                                                                
We  are  assuming that  for  Point  Thomson in  particular,  that                                                               
there's two major capital outlays  associated with expanding that                                                               
field,  one that  occurs prior  to  full exports  and another  in                                                               
2038. That represents an expected  reduction to production tax in                                                               
that one  year when we're  expecting a  major outlay of  funds at                                                               
Point Thomson.                                                                                                                  
                                                                                                                                
9:52:39 AM                                                                                                                    
SENATOR DUNBAR                                                                                                                  
Just remind me,  that production tax is for both  oil and gas, or                                                               
just production taxes on the gas.                                                                                               
                                                                                                                                
9:52:47 AM                                                                                                                    
MR. STICKEL                                                                                                                     
                                                                                                                                
This  is total  production tax.  The  production tax  due to  the                                                               
state is  paid on a  statewide basis, so  we combine the  oil and                                                               
the gas from the producers.                                                                                                     
                                                                                                                                
9:53:04 AM                                                                                                                    
SENATOR DUNBAR                                                                                                                  
                                                                                                                                
If this  all goes  forward, I  think the  legislature in  2036 is                                                               
going to have a pretty detailed discussion about that.                                                                          
                                                                                                                                
9:53:15 AM                                                                                                                    
MR. STICKEL                                                                                                                     
                                                                                                                                
These are  incremental production  tax revenues above  and beyond                                                               
our spring  revenue forecast. And so  in 2038, we would  still be                                                               
expecting  additional  revenue  above  and  beyond  the  existing                                                               
forecast, just  not hundreds of  millions of dollars like  we are                                                               
in other years.                                                                                                                 
                                                                                                                                
9:53:36 AM                                                                                                                    
SENATOR CLAMAN                                                                                                                  
                                                                                                                                
Senator Wielechowski  was asking  some questions  about, actually                                                               
took a  question from Mr.  Kissinger asking about the  CO2 stuff,                                                               
but I  think he also  asked the status  of an EPA  application to                                                               
get permitted, and I'd never heard an answer to that.                                                                           
                                                                                                                                
9:54:03 AM                                                                                                                    
MR. KISSINGER                                                                                                                   
                                                                                                                                
The Class  6 wells, as  I mentioned, there  are two ways  you can                                                               
earn  the  credit through  the  permanent  geological storage  or                                                               
through  the  VLR. If  the  Class  6  wells  are needed  for  the                                                               
permanent geological  storage. These  were, this  gas is  used as                                                               
ULR and  the reservoir  would just be  sent through  the approved                                                               
system  into  either  existing injector  wells  or  new  injector                                                               
wells. Those wells would  not need to be Class 6  wells as far as                                                               
I understand. It would be more than a year.                                                                                     
                                                                                                                                
9:54:43 AM                                                                                                                    
CHAIR GIESSEL                                                                                                                   
My understanding is  AOCC has achieved authorization  for Class 6                                                               
well,  but let  me confirm  that. It's  been a  couple of  months                                                               
since I last spoke to them, and  I do have another inquiry out to                                                               
them related  to Great  Bear. So  I'll ask  that question  in the                                                               
next day or so.                                                                                                                 
                                                                                                                                
9:55:03 AM                                                                                                                    
SENATOR WIELECHOWSKI                                                                                                            
                                                                                                                                
Going back  to Senator Dunbar's  question on  lease expenditures.                                                               
Can you  get us a  chart that  had the lease  expenditures, could                                                               
you get us a chart that  had the amount of lease expenditure, the                                                               
cost of lease  expenditure deductions to the state  per year from                                                               
this project.                                                                                                                   
                                                                                                                                
9:55:18 AM                                                                                                                    
MR. STICKEL                                                                                                                     
                                                                                                                                
I  will   provide  our   assumptions  around   incremental  lease                                                               
expenditures associated with the project.                                                                                       
                                                                                                                                
9:55:30 AM                                                                                                                    
SENATOR WIELECHOWSKI                                                                                                            
                                                                                                                                
Yes, the lease expenditures, but also  the loss in revenue to the                                                               
state from those lease expenditures.                                                                                            
                                                                                                                                
MR. STICKEL                                                                                                                     
                                                                                                                                
We will  include the increase  or decrease in  revenue associated                                                               
with these expenditures.                                                                                                        
                                                                                                                                
9:55:57 AM                                                                                                                    
MR. STICKEL moved  to slide 33, Sensitivity  Matrix; In-State Gas                                                               
Break-Even Price, Nominal $/Mcf in 2033                                                                                         
                                                                                                                                
This  gets  at some  of  the  questions around  uncertainties  of                                                               
assumptions  around  the  AK  LNG project.  Two  of  the  biggest                                                               
assumptions that  we've identified  have uncertainty  around them                                                               
are what  the gas price  will be  that the producers  receive and                                                               
how  much  the  project  will   actually  cost.  There  was  some                                                               
discussion  yesterday  of   potentially  some  different  numbers                                                               
running  around.  Within Department  of  Revenue,  we don't  have                                                               
final  or confidential  numbers on  those two  items, we  prepare                                                               
some extensive  sensitivity analysis.  We show  on the  top, what                                                               
we're  showing here  is  the  break-even price  for  the cost  of                                                               
supply that we've shown on  previous slides. On this chart, we're                                                               
showing that in-state cost of supply,  and we are varying the gas                                                               
purchase price on the x-axis, which  is how much do the producers                                                               
receive  for  selling the  gas  into  the  project. Then  we  are                                                               
varying the capital  cost for the project. We start  with our $46                                                               
billion capital  cost assumption  as our base  capex, and  we run                                                               
increments of  that up  to a  100 percent  cost overrun.  You can                                                               
look at  what is  the impact  if there  is a  capital expenditure                                                               
that's  20 or  40 percent  higher  than the  baseline costs.  Our                                                               
baseline assumptions  are the $1.50  per thousand cubic  feet for                                                               
the purchase  price, and  then the $46  billion project  cost. In                                                               
the  baseline, this  bill would  reduce that  in-state break-even                                                               
price  from $4.86  per  thousand  cubic feet  down  to $4.43  per                                                               
thousand cubic feet.  But then you can see  the significant range                                                               
of  outcomes  that  are  potential  there and  the  risk  to  the                                                               
developer for the higher capital cost in particular.                                                                            
                                                                                                                                
9:58:12 AM                                                                                                                    
SENATOR DUNBAR                                                                                                                  
                                                                                                                                
Just so we  can put this in context, this  break-even price, what                                                               
is the  sort of, what is  the international price that  they'd be                                                               
competing with right now.                                                                                                       
                                                                                                                                
9:58:27 AM                                                                                                                    
MR. STICKEL                                                                                                                     
                                                                                                                                
This looks at the in-state price.  This would be the price to in-                                                               
state  utilities. I  do  have another,  the  next chart  actually                                                               
looks at the international LNG prices.                                                                                          
                                                                                                                                
SENATOR DUNBAR                                                                                                                  
                                                                                                                                
The  second one  says Alaska  LNG,  but its  still in-state  even                                                               
though the in-state users are not using the LNG.                                                                                
                                                                                                                                
MR. STICKEL                                                                                                                     
                                                                                                                                
Right, we  are showing  the capital cost  for the  entire project                                                               
and then what is the delivered gas to in-state utilities.                                                                       
                                                                                                                                
SENATOR DUNBAR                                                                                                                  
                                                                                                                                
Right, because it's all one project.                                                                                            
                                                                                                                                
MR. STICKEL                                                                                                                     
                                                                                                                                
The next  slide will show  a similar  chart looking at  LNG sales                                                               
into global market.                                                                                                             
                                                                                                                                
9:59:18 AM                                                                                                                    
CHAIR GIESSEL                                                                                                                   
                                                                                                                                
One  of  the concerns  that  we  have is  the  phase  one and  it                                                               
existing as  an isolated occurrence.  For the first few  years, I                                                               
think on  your previous  slide, 32  and 30,  the first  few years                                                               
when it's in-state only, there's quite  a loss. What is the price                                                               
of, what is  the break-even price there. What  are Alaskans going                                                               
to look at paying.                                                                                                              
                                                                                                                                
9:59:50 AM                                                                                                                    
MR. STICKEL                                                                                                                     
                                                                                                                                
I  have  some  numbers  based  on a  fall  2025  version  of  the                                                               
analysis.  We haven't  fully completed  the  most updated  spring                                                               
version  of  the  analysis,  but the  numbers  should  be  fairly                                                               
comparable. If the  project were to build the  pipeline phase one                                                               
only and not  proceed to the full project, we  estimated a break-                                                               
even  gas  delivered  to  utilities price  of  about  $12.52  per                                                               
thousand cubic feet.                                                                                                            
                                                                                                                                
10:00:26 AM                                                                                                                   
SENATOR WIELECHOWSKI                                                                                                            
                                                                                                                                
Just so  I understand this, so  the base, looking at  the top one                                                               
here,  the base  CapEx at  $1.5446, that,  is that  the delivered                                                               
price  to the  consumer in  South  Central, or  are you  assuming                                                               
other charges on top of that.                                                                                                   
                                                                                                                                
MR. STICKEL                                                                                                                     
                                                                                                                                
The prices here represent the  delivered price to utilities. This                                                               
would  be  the  cost  that  a utility  such  as  NSTAR  would  be                                                               
purchasing the gas for, and then  the consumers would be paying a                                                               
higher price  that would represent  the transportation  cost that                                                               
NSTAR has.                                                                                                                      
                                                                                                                                
10:01:14 AM                                                                                                                   
SENATOR WIELECHOWSKI                                                                                                            
                                                                                                                                
Do you  have a rough estimate  of what that number  would reflect                                                               
from 486 to 586, 686.                                                                                                           
                                                                                                                                
MR. STICKEL                                                                                                                     
                                                                                                                                
Not off the top of my head.                                                                                                     
                                                                                                                                
10:01:33 AM                                                                                                                   
SENATOR WIELECHOWSKI                                                                                                            
If you  could get that. I'm  just curious, are you  assuming that                                                               
cost overruns  are going  to be  passed on  to the  consumers. Is                                                               
that what this assumption is making.                                                                                            
                                                                                                                                
MR. STICKEL                                                                                                                     
                                                                                                                                
Yes. The way this looks is  we assume that the midstream operator                                                               
will earn a 10  percent rate of return, and then  we look at what                                                               
is  the price  that  would  be required  to  allow  them that  10                                                               
percent  rate of  return on  different levels  of capital  costs.                                                               
That's how  we've done the  modeling approach. What  would happen                                                               
in  reality is  the midstream  operator would  have a  price that                                                               
they would  pay to  the upstream,  they would  have a  price that                                                               
they  would sell  the gas  for,  they would  have a  cost of  the                                                               
project,  and  they  would  bear  a  lot  of  that  risk  at  the                                                               
midstream.                                                                                                                      
                                                                                                                                
10:02:42 AM                                                                                                                   
SENATOR WIELECHOWSKI                                                                                                            
                                                                                                                                
That was  my understanding  of the testimony,  was that  the cost                                                               
overruns would not be passed to  the consumers. I'm not sure what                                                               
to make  with this  chart. Are  you saying that  if there's  a 20                                                               
percent cost  overrun, it won't be  543 if it's $1.50  gas. It'll                                                               
be something different.                                                                                                         
                                                                                                                                
MR. STICKEL                                                                                                                     
                                                                                                                                
What we're  showing here  is, given  if you  assume a  20 percent                                                               
cost overrun, for instance, and  if you assume the $1.50 purchase                                                               
price, for instance,  then a $5.43 per thousand  cubic feet would                                                               
be required. That would be  the price that the midstream operator                                                               
would have  to sell the  gas for to  get that 10  percent return.                                                               
Now, they could sell it for a lower  price and get less than a 10                                                               
percent return. Then  under the bill before  you, that break-even                                                               
in that  scenario would  go from  $5.43 down  to $4.92.  It would                                                               
make  a lower  required  price  for them  to  earn  that rate  of                                                               
return.                                                                                                                         
                                                                                                                                
10:03:52 AM                                                                                                                   
SENATOR WIELECHOWSKI                                                                                                            
                                                                                                                                
To  be clear,  you  heard the  same testimony  I  did, that  cost                                                               
overruns will not be passed onto consumers, correct.                                                                            
                                                                                                                                
MR. STICKEL                                                                                                                     
                                                                                                                                
Correct.                                                                                                                        
10:04:05 AM                                                                                                                   
SENATOR DUNBAR                                                                                                                  
                                                                                                                                
What volume of consumption are you assuming here from in-state.                                                                 
                                                                                                                                
MR. STICKEL                                                                                                                     
                                                                                                                                
I need to  defer the question. Mr. Herbert has  the answer at his                                                               
fingertips.                                                                                                                     
                                                                                                                                
10:04:33 AM                                                                                                                   
                                                                                                                                
MR. HERBERT                                                                                                                     
                                                                                                                                
I have  a revenue  in the  version of the  model you  have that's                                                               
being  presented in  front  of  you, we  have  an in-state  sales                                                               
demand of approximately 67 BCF per year, but growing over time.                                                                 
                                                                                                                                
10:05:12 AM                                                                                                                   
SENATOR DUNBAR                                                                                                                  
                                                                                                                                
67  BCF per  year,  you're  not saying  the  whole project  could                                                               
survive selling 67 BCF per year  at this price, right. This chart                                                               
cannot exist without the chart  on the following slide where they                                                               
are selling the full 3.5 BCF per day. Is that correct.                                                                          
                                                                                                                                
10:05:37 AM                                                                                                                   
MR. STICKEL                                                                                                                     
                                                                                                                                
Yes, that's  correct. So these  represent the  in-state delivered                                                               
sales assuming the  full project goes forward. Then  again, if we                                                               
assume, if  the full project  didn't go  forward and it  was just                                                               
the phase  one, yes, the  in-state prices would  be significantly                                                               
higher.                                                                                                                         
                                                                                                                                
10:05:59 AM                                                                                                                   
SENATOR DUNBAR                                                                                                                  
                                                                                                                                
My follow-up  question will be  on the  next slide. The  point is                                                               
sort of, this  is an interesting slide because  this slide cannot                                                               
exist, and  none of this will  happen unless what happens  on the                                                               
next slide goes forward, which  is they are competitively selling                                                               
a much, much larger volume  of gas into the international market.                                                               
That's my question about what  price are they competing with goes                                                               
to the next slide, but it's tied  to this slide in the sense that                                                               
if  they can't  compete on  the  next slide,  this slide  doesn't                                                               
exist. This doesn't happen.                                                                                                     
                                                                                                                                
10:06:39 AM                                                                                                                   
SENATOR RAUSCHER                                                                                                                
                                                                                                                                
Assuming  these sellers  wanted  to maintain  their projected  10                                                               
percent  profit,  the  consumers  will  bear  the  cost  of  cost                                                               
overruns, is  what I just  heard, right.  What I'm trying  to get                                                               
through before  I get  the answer  is, who  is the  consumer. The                                                               
consumer could be whoever's purchasing  overseas, as opposed to a                                                               
different  price  which   we  could  get  in-state.   Is  that  a                                                               
possibility. I'm  trying to understand  the actual  definition of                                                               
the consumer and who's actually going to absorb the cost.                                                                       
                                                                                                                                
10:07:31 AM                                                                                                                   
MR. STICKEL                                                                                                                     
                                                                                                                                
No, we are not assuming that  cost overruns would be borne by the                                                               
consumer.  We've  developed  the  model, it's  based  on  a,  the                                                               
initial  model was  based  on  a tolling  model  for a  regulated                                                               
pipeline  where  there is  a  regulated  return. We've  basically                                                               
modified this approach  to modeling to the  current project. What                                                               
we're presenting here  is, if you assume a given  sales price and                                                               
a given  construction cost, and if  you assume a 10  percent rate                                                               
of return, then  what is the sales price to  utilities that would                                                               
be  required for  the project  to earn  that 10  percent rate  of                                                               
return.  This  would be,  these  in  effect would  be  break-even                                                               
prices for  Glenfarne. What would they  need to sell the  gas for                                                               
to achieve their 10 percent rate of  return. As far as who is the                                                               
consumer,  when we  do the  modeling, we're  looking at  sales to                                                               
utilities. So for in-state sales, it  would be sales to, it would                                                               
be sales to Instar, to  Golden Valley, other utilities like that.                                                               
For  LNG,  it  would  be   sales  to  the  utilities,  you  know,                                                               
potentially overseas.                                                                                                           
                                                                                                                                
10:09:01 AM                                                                                                                   
SENATOR RAUSCHER                                                                                                                
                                                                                                                                
The bulk of the gas is going overseas.                                                                                          
                                                                                                                                
MR. STICKEL                                                                                                                     
                                                                                                                                
That is correct.                                                                                                                
                                                                                                                                
SENATOR RAUSCHER                                                                                                                
                                                                                                                                
They are basically going to accept the bulk of the extra cost.                                                                  
                                                                                                                                
MR. STICKEL                                                                                                                     
The LNG  market is  a global  market, and so  the prices  for the                                                               
delivered LNG  will be based  on market prices.  Glynnfarne would                                                               
go out  and negotiate  those contracts based  on what  the market                                                               
will bear for  delivered costs. They will  negotiate the upstream                                                               
prices  with the  producers, and  they will  outlay the  funds to                                                               
build the project.  They will ultimately bear the risk  of a cost                                                               
override  unless they  have a  very  unique contract  arrangement                                                               
where they could do some sort of cost sharing.                                                                                  
                                                                                                                                
10:10:03 AM                                                                                                                   
CHAIR GIESSEL                                                                                                                   
                                                                                                                                
I just wanted  to clarify. I had asked you  the question, what if                                                               
just the  pipe were built,  only the  pipeline, and you  said the                                                               
break-even  for that  would be  $12.52. I  wanted to  clarify, is                                                               
that the  price that ENSTAR  would pay if  only the pipe  were in                                                               
the ground.                                                                                                                     
                                                                                                                                
MR. STICKEL                                                                                                                     
                                                                                                                                
To put a  finer point on that,  and these were based  on the fall                                                               
version of the model, so  they're not exactly directly comparable                                                               
to  what you're  seeing here,  but the  break-even price  for in-                                                               
state  with phase  one only  would be  $12.52 per  thousand cubic                                                               
feet under current law if the  project went forward, and it would                                                               
be $10.72 per thousand cubic feet under the proposed law.                                                                       
                                                                                                                                
10:10:58 AM                                                                                                                   
CHAIR GIESSEL                                                                                                                   
                                                                                                                                
To  clarify that's  the  price to  ENSTAR not  the  price to  the                                                               
consumer.                                                                                                                       
                                                                                                                                
MR. STICKEL                                                                                                                     
                                                                                                                                
That is correct.                                                                                                                
                                                                                                                                
10:11:08 AM                                                                                                                   
SENATOR CLAMAN                                                                                                                  
                                                                                                                                
So  there's several  questions about  that the  consumer, meaning                                                               
the gas  user in ENSTAR,  the homeowner in NSAR's  example, isn't                                                               
going to  pay the  cost overruns.  Who is going  to pay  the cost                                                               
overruns. Does  that just mean in  the 10 percent rate  of return                                                               
that  you've  calculated that  they  have  to absorb  those  cost                                                               
overruns in  the 10 percent and  reduce their margin, or  does it                                                               
get paid somewhere else.                                                                                                        
MR. STICKEL                                                                                                                     
                                                                                                                                
yes,  the assumption  is  the midstream  operator  would have  to                                                               
absorb cost over runs.                                                                                                          
                                                                                                                                
10:11:53 AM                                                                                                                   
SENATOR WIELECHOWSKI                                                                                                            
                                                                                                                                
Has Glenfarne  agreed to not seek  a higher than 10  percent rate                                                               
of return.                                                                                                                      
                                                                                                                                
MR. STICKEL                                                                                                                     
                                                                                                                                
The 10  percent rate  of return,  this would  not be  a regulated                                                               
pipeline. The 10 percent rate  of return is a modeling assumption                                                               
that we've developed.  They could certainly get a  higher than 10                                                               
percent rate of return. They could  very well get a lower than 10                                                               
percent rate of return.                                                                                                         
                                                                                                                                
10:12:18 AM                                                                                                                   
SENATOR WIELECHOWSKI                                                                                                            
                                                                                                                                
Who would decide what their rate of return is.                                                                                  
                                                                                                                                
MR. STICKEL                                                                                                                     
                                                                                                                                
Given  that its  not a  regulated  pipeline, the  rate of  return                                                               
would  be a  function  of the  purchase price  for  the gas,  the                                                               
expenses to build and operate  the pipeline, and then the selling                                                               
price for the gas.                                                                                                              
                                                                                                                                
10:12:39 AM                                                                                                                   
SENATOR WIELECHOWSKI                                                                                                            
                                                                                                                                
Is  it the  department's position  that the  RCA or  FERC doesn't                                                               
regulate this pipeline.                                                                                                         
                                                                                                                                
MR. STICKEL                                                                                                                     
                                                                                                                                
My understanding is that this  would not be a regulated pipeline.                                                               
I'm happy to call on a lifeline for more details on that.                                                                       
                                                                                                                                
10:13:11 AM                                                                                                                   
MR. KISSINGER                                                                                                                   
                                                                                                                                
This project  is a FERC  regulated project. It's  regulated under                                                               
Section 3 of  the Natural Gas Act,  and it is not  subject to RCA                                                               
regulation.  It  is  under  the  exclusive  jurisdiction  of  the                                                               
federal government.                                                                                                             
10:13:36 AM                                                                                                                   
SENATOR WIELECHOWSKI                                                                                                            
                                                                                                                                
My understanding  is FERC doesn't  regulate returns, so  it would                                                               
be up  to the, the pipeline  producer or the pipeline  builder to                                                               
decide what their rate of return is.                                                                                            
                                                                                                                                
10:13:51 AM                                                                                                                   
MR. KISSINGER                                                                                                                   
                                                                                                                                
As you know, the market  will determine what returns are required                                                               
to attract  the investors. What  we've done in  coordination with                                                               
the Department  of Revenue  is take  a stab  at an  assumption on                                                               
what would be attractive to the  market. The market is also going                                                               
to  factor in  their cost  overrun  risk exposure.  So, yes,  the                                                               
midstream  will take  on  the  cost overrun  risk,  but when  the                                                               
project is fully contracted, meaning  all the upstream contracts,                                                               
as Mr. Stickle mentioned, all  the downstream contracts, L place,                                                               
and EPC contracts constructed, there  needs to be sufficient room                                                               
to  bear  what  is  the   perceived  cost  overrun  risk  by  the                                                               
investors. We're  trying to  see if  there's sufficient  room for                                                               
that.                                                                                                                           
                                                                                                                                
10:14:52 AM                                                                                                                   
SENATOR WIELECHOWSKI                                                                                                            
                                                                                                                                
We've heard  throughout the presentation  that the  expected rate                                                               
of return will be 10 percent, is that what you expect it to be.                                                                 
                                                                                                                                
MR. KISSINGER                                                                                                                   
                                                                                                                                
We've always  assumed here at AGDC  a 12 percent pre-tax  rate of                                                               
return and a  10 percent after-tax rate of return.  But again, as                                                               
we seek  the investors at FID,  that's when the market  will make                                                               
itself known.  Those are  somewhat standard  infrastructure level                                                               
rates  of  return for  projects  that  are project-financed  with                                                               
highly creditworthy counterparties.                                                                                             
                                                                                                                                
10:15:41 AM                                                                                                                   
SENATOR CLAMAN                                                                                                                  
                                                                                                                                
Let's go back  to the consumer and the cost  overruns wouldn't be                                                               
borne by the consumer in  an unregulated pipeline. Where does the                                                               
consumer go to get assurance that,  in fact, those costs have not                                                               
been put onto their utility bill.                                                                                               
                                                                                                                                
10:16:34 AM                                                                                                                   
CHAIR GIESSEL                                                                                                                   
The Regulatory  Commission of Alaska  (RCA) regulates  ENSTAR and                                                               
the price it charges consumers.                                                                                                 
                                                                                                                                
10:16:45 AM                                                                                                                   
MR. KISSINGER                                                                                                                   
                                                                                                                                
It  is our  understanding that  the RCA  regulates the  gas sales                                                               
agreements  to these  utilities, so  the utility  would take  the                                                               
application to  the RCA in  much the same  way they do  now. They                                                               
pick the  application for North  or Cook  Inlet gas sales  to the                                                               
RCA. The  RCA doesn't go and  examine all the costs  involved and                                                               
then make a determination on whether  the gas sale itself is fair                                                               
and reasonable, is my understanding.                                                                                            
                                                                                                                                
10:17:19 AM                                                                                                                   
SENATOR CLAMAN                                                                                                                  
                                                                                                                                
If you've got  an unregulated pipeline that's coming  in, the RCA                                                               
really isn't  in a  position to say,  well, they're  charging too                                                               
much for  the gas that's  coming in the pipeline  and potentially                                                               
putting in  the costs that  are very much  showing up now  in the                                                               
consumer's bill. RCA would say,  well, where's the point at which                                                               
we  can say,  no, this  is not  OK, because  they actually  don't                                                               
regulate the pipeline  that's getting it there.  I have questions                                                               
about the certainty,  the proposal that we wouldn't  charge it to                                                               
the consumer is just another  day when somebody said, well, these                                                               
were  cost  overruns, it's  built  into  the pipeline  gas  price                                                               
that's coming  to ENSTAR. ENSTAR says  this is the best  price we                                                               
could get  and it's got those  very prices getting shared  to the                                                               
consumer.                                                                                                                       
                                                                                                                                
10:18:08 AM                                                                                                                   
CHAIR GIESSEL                                                                                                                   
                                                                                                                                
It is  my understanding, and  I will  confirm that, that  if this                                                               
were an  in-state pipeline only,  that the  Regulatory Commission                                                               
of Alaska  would regulate it.  However, the Glenfarne  entity has                                                               
gone  to FERC  and  permitted  this as  a  single project,  which                                                               
includes an  export facility, which  FERC does  have jurisdiction                                                               
over.  My  understanding is  that  the  Regulatory Commission  of                                                               
Alaska will regulate  what the rate of return to  ENSTAR is. They                                                               
will tell  them what  the cost  of the gas  is that  Glenfarne is                                                               
selling it  to them for, and  then determine how much  ENSTAR can                                                               
add to  that to cover ENSTAR's  cost. That's where the  RCA would                                                               
come in. I  can confirm that, and we can  certainly invite an RCA                                                               
commissioner   to  join   us  at   the  table,   but  that's   my                                                               
understanding.                                                                                                                  
10:19:12 AM                                                                                                                   
SENATOR KAWASAKI                                                                                                                
                                                                                                                                
Just because  we're talking about  RCA and then who  would figure                                                               
this out, and I  don't know who can answer this,  but is the spur                                                               
line  from  wherever to  Fairbanks  going  to be  rate  regulated                                                               
through RCA, or is it just a  FERC project. If it's not with this                                                               
AKLG, but it's a spur, who regulates that.                                                                                      
                                                                                                                                
10:19:48 AM                                                                                                                   
MR. KISSINGER                                                                                                                   
                                                                                                                                
It is my understanding that would  be, that you mentioned, an in-                                                               
state gas pipeline, and so  therefore would fall under the Alaska                                                               
state statutes.                                                                                                                 
                                                                                                                                
SENATOR KAWASAKI                                                                                                                
                                                                                                                                
Maybe we will clarify with RCA at some point.                                                                                   
                                                                                                                                
CHAIR GIESSEL                                                                                                                   
                                                                                                                                
We absolutely will  and I have that understanding  also, that the                                                               
RCA will regulate that gas pipeline.                                                                                            
                                                                                                                                
10:20:16 AM                                                                                                                   
SENATOR WIELECHOWSKI                                                                                                            
                                                                                                                                
Just a  hypothetical, and correct me  if I'm wrong, but  could we                                                               
pass this bill with the assumptions  that were given, and then it                                                               
turns out, well, gas isn't really  $1.50, it's $3, and the CapEx,                                                               
the cost isn't  really $46 billion, it's really  $90 billion, and                                                               
the  rate of  return  isn't  really 10  percent,  it's  13 or  14                                                               
percent. Is  that theoretically possible  that could  happen. The                                                               
way the bill's currently written.                                                                                               
                                                                                                                                
10:20:58 AM                                                                                                                   
MR. KISSINGER                                                                                                                   
                                                                                                                                
This is difficult for me to  apply in so many hypotheticals, so I                                                               
apologize.                                                                                                                      
                                                                                                                                
SENATOR WIELECHOWSKI                                                                                                            
                                                                                                                                
I'll break it down for you,  Mr. Kissinger, if that's okay. Is it                                                               
possible that  the gas  instead of  being $1.50  could be  $3. Is                                                               
that possible. Yes or no.                                                                                                       
                                                                                                                                
MR. KISSINGER                                                                                                                   
It's theoretically  possible, but  I'm finding it  difficult that                                                               
we  would be  able  to clear  the  market on  the  LNG side.  So,                                                               
hypothetically, yes, reasonably, no.                                                                                            
                                                                                                                                
10:21:34 AM                                                                                                                   
SENATOR WIELECHOWSKI                                                                                                            
                                                                                                                                
Is it  possible that the capex  could be instead of  $46 billion,                                                               
$80 or $90 billion, yes or no.                                                                                                  
                                                                                                                                
MR. KISSINGER                                                                                                                   
                                                                                                                                
If  we're dealing  in pure  hypotheticals, any  number, it  could                                                               
result in almost  any number. I think it would  be very difficult                                                               
to clear  the LNG market if  capex estimated $90 billion  and you                                                               
also have  cost overrun.  We are  now sitting on  a class  2 cost                                                               
estimate, which has a 15 percent  accuracy rate band on it on the                                                               
mainline  pipeline,  and  we're  moving  into  feed  on  the  gas                                                               
treatment plant  and the LNG  facility. Once feeders  complete on                                                               
those,  we'll  be able  to  apply  with  more confidence  on  the                                                               
narrower  band of  what the  capex should  result in.  I wouldn't                                                               
expect that to be $90 billion.                                                                                                  
                                                                                                                                
10:22:30 AM                                                                                                                   
SENATOR WIELECHOWSKI                                                                                                            
                                                                                                                                
When can we expect that.                                                                                                        
                                                                                                                                
MR. KISSINGER                                                                                                                   
                                                                                                                                
The developer  is attempting to  enter into feed the  middle part                                                               
of  this  year on  both  the  gas  treatment  plant and  the  LNG                                                               
facility,  and that  feed  could  take as  long  as  one year  to                                                               
complete.                                                                                                                       
                                                                                                                                
10:22:54 AM                                                                                                                   
SENATOR WIELECHOWSKI                                                                                                            
                                                                                                                                
When we heard earlier this year  that pipe would start to be laid                                                               
in December, is that being pushed back now.                                                                                     
                                                                                                                                
MR. KISSINGER                                                                                                                   
                                                                                                                                
It's important to differentiate between  the pipeline and the GTP                                                               
and LNG  subprojects. The pipeline  subproject, as I said,  has a                                                               
Class 2 cost estimate already on  the mainline, and so, no, we're                                                               
willing  to move  forward on  phase one  with that  Class 2  cost                                                               
estimate on the mainline pipeline.                                                                                              
10:23:28 AM                                                                                                                   
SENATOR WIELECHOWSKI                                                                                                            
                                                                                                                                
The pipe will still start to be laid in December of this year.                                                                  
                                                                                                                                
MR. KISSINGER                                                                                                                   
                                                                                                                                
As I've  mentioned before, I don't  like to deal in  setting hard                                                               
timelines  for  achieving  an  FID. I'd  rather  talk  about  the                                                               
ingredients  going into  the FID  and how  those ingredients  are                                                               
progressing  over  time.  We've  seen the  gas  sales,  precedent                                                               
agreements with  the upstream,  those need  to be  converted into                                                               
definitive gas  sales agreements. That's happening  right now. We                                                               
have the downstream gas sales  agreement to ENSTAR and industrial                                                               
customers. Those  negotiations are ongoing. And  ultimately, that                                                               
will go into an RCA process.  The RCA process will take a certain                                                               
amount of time.  That is less managed both on  our side, and that                                                               
all has to be factored in. Ideally,  yes, by the end of the year,                                                               
we would be laying pipe.                                                                                                        
                                                                                                                                
10:24:29 AM                                                                                                                   
SENATOR MYERS                                                                                                                   
                                                                                                                                
You answered  about half my  questions already.  Appreciate that.                                                               
To  clarify,  going  back  to kind  of  consumer  protection,  my                                                               
understanding of the  process and of what you just  said was that                                                               
before FID,  you guys and  Glenfarne, are  going to have  to sign                                                               
firm or binding  contracts with Chugach and E and  maybe a couple                                                               
other  customers in  the  south central  that  I'm forgetting  in                                                               
order to go to FID on  phase one. But then before those contracts                                                               
can get  signed, ENSTAR  has to  have them  approved by  the RCA,                                                               
meaning  that it  would be  extremely difficult  for ENSTAR,  for                                                               
Glenfarne to  pass the  cost on  to the  consumer if  there's any                                                               
significant cost  overruns, because that would  require ENSTAR or                                                               
Chugach or  somebody to turn  around and go  back to the  RCA and                                                               
get  those  contracts  re-approved   and  renegotiated.  Is  that                                                               
correct.                                                                                                                        
                                                                                                                                
10:25:46 AM                                                                                                                   
MR. KISSINGER                                                                                                                   
                                                                                                                                
I think that  you've captured it exactly how I  understand it. If                                                               
I just  can sort of  repeat what you  said for clarity,  we would                                                               
first enter  into the  gas purchase agreement  and the  gas sales                                                               
agreement that underpin  the financing on this  project. We would                                                               
then get  the RCA approvals, we  would get the financing,  and if                                                               
the project  did have extreme  cost overruns,  it would not  be a                                                               
simple matter of turning around and  just passing that cost on to                                                               
the consumer, because  the consumer, A, has  a long-term contract                                                               
in place,  and B, that  long-term contract requires  the approval                                                               
of the RCA.                                                                                                                     
                                                                                                                                
10:26:35 AM                                                                                                                   
SENATOR RAUSCHER                                                                                                                
                                                                                                                                
I think  the options are still  out there. The whole  idea behind                                                               
this pipeline is  to beat the cost of overseas,  which I think is                                                               
still  an option  if the  price gets  too high.  I don't  know if                                                               
that's fact,  but I think  that that's  also an option.  And then                                                               
there's always whatever we have  in the inlet, whatever's left of                                                               
whatever  we have  in  the  inlet. I  think  those, they  compete                                                               
against each  other, so  I assume  that they  have to  take those                                                               
into consideration too. That's just my opinion.                                                                                 
                                                                                                                                
10:27:21 AM                                                                                                                   
CHAIR GIESSEL                                                                                                                   
                                                                                                                                
I  do want  to interject  here  that Nick  Fulford with  Gaffney,                                                               
Cline is  online, and he  sends a comment  that he has  slides on                                                               
many  of these  questions  and would  be happy  to  jump in.  I'm                                                               
hesitant to do that because we  do have Mr. Stickel at the table,                                                               
and  we still  have  more  slides, so  we  will  look forward  to                                                               
hearing from Mr. Fulford at our next hearing.                                                                                   
                                                                                                                                
10:28:15 AM                                                                                                                   
MR. STICKEL  moved to  slide 34,  Sensitivity Matrix;  LNG Break-                                                               
Even Price, Nominal $/Mcf in 2033.                                                                                              
                                                                                                                                
Slide 34 is  similar to what we  had on slide 33,  but looking at                                                               
those LNG breakeven prices. What would  the price have to be into                                                               
the  market  under  different gas  purchase  prices  and  capital                                                               
costs. This  bill would  reduce the breakeven  gas price  for the                                                               
developer from $9.07 down to  $8.48 per thousand cubic feet under                                                               
our baseline assumptions. My understanding  is Gaffney, Cline has                                                               
some excellent charts that kind  of put those values into context                                                               
in terms of current and historical market prices globally.                                                                      
                                                                                                                                
10:29:12 AM                                                                                                                   
SENATOR DUNBAR                                                                                                                  
                                                                                                                                
This is going  to Gaffney, Cline, but what is  the current, price                                                               
maybe is  a little bit not  the best use because  of what's going                                                               
on in Qatar and elsewhere, but  what is the current price that we                                                               
would be competing  with, and what's the projected  price in 2033                                                               
we would be competing with.                                                                                                     
MR. STICKEL                                                                                                                     
                                                                                                                                
I would defer  some of those questions around  exactly what we're                                                               
competing against.  I looked at  futures market  prices yesterday                                                               
for delivered LNG into Asia.  Currently, the prices are well over                                                               
$10 per thousand cubic feet,  especially over the very near term.                                                               
There's  a bit  of a  supply crunch.  Once you  go out  into that                                                               
early  2030s timeframe,  the  prices are  lower.  They're in  the                                                               
around  $8  to  $9  per  thousand cubic  feet  range  and  really                                                               
highlights that  these delivered prices  are right on  the margin                                                               
of being competitive.                                                                                                           
                                                                                                                                
10:30:22 AM                                                                                                                   
SENATOR DUNBAR                                                                                                                  
                                                                                                                                
This is more  to Mr. Kissinger. I'd like you  to provide a little                                                               
more detail about that. Let's say  it's $10, we said, and it goes                                                               
down because  there are a  bunch of  other LNG projects  that are                                                               
coming online all over the  world, including two potentially from                                                               
Glenfarne. My two questions are, what  are you assuming to be the                                                               
price you're going  to be competing with. Then  second, I'm still                                                               
struggling with this idea that  the previous slide, that Alaskans                                                               
will  really get  that price  when we're  only 5  percent of  the                                                               
volume that's  coming down the pipe.  Is there a world  in which,                                                               
let's say  the South  Central consumer in  Alaska is  getting gas                                                               
out of this pipe that is  more expensive than what we potentially                                                               
could be importing from the LNG market.                                                                                         
                                                                                                                                
10:31:42 AM                                                                                                                   
MR. KISSINGER                                                                                                                   
                                                                                                                                
On  a full  build-out of  the three  train exports,  I'd say  no,                                                               
that's  not  possible.  We  did have,  in  the  Alaska  Advantage                                                               
principles,  we  have  this concept  of  differential  rates.  So                                                               
differential rates  are where you can  sell at a lower  cost into                                                               
one  customer  than another.  For  example,  to bring  on,  we've                                                               
talked about  the Agrium  plant. I think  everyone would  love to                                                               
see  the Agrium  nitrogen plant  back online.  To do  that, under                                                               
phase one,  if in-state  customers are paying  in the  $13 range,                                                               
you would  not be  able to bring  that plant on.  You use  a tool                                                               
called  differential rates,  and you  go, what  rate can  you pay                                                               
there.  For  hypothetical  purposes,  let's  say  that's  $6.  If                                                               
they're  paying $6,  that would  bring your  in-state costs  down                                                               
from the $12,  $13 range to the $10 range.  In that instance, and                                                               
apologies, but  the same  could be  done with  a single  train of                                                               
LNG. If  you build with  just the first  train of LNG,  you could                                                               
take  it off  that way.  Hypothetically, in  that situation,  you                                                               
could have  overseas customers paying  less for the gas  than the                                                               
in-state customers. The way those  differential rates are allowed                                                               
under  this  Alaska  Advantage  principles  is  only  where  they                                                               
achieve  the  one  resting possible  rate  for  in-state  utility                                                               
customers. It has  to be demonstrated that  we're benefiting from                                                               
those differential  rates. Even though  it's a very hard  pill to                                                               
swallow, we  still need to  be demonstrating that we're  at least                                                               
benefiting from  those differential  rates and bringing  down the                                                               
cost to in-state customers from where they would otherwise be.                                                                  
                                                                                                                                
10:33:47 AM                                                                                                                   
SENATOR DUNBAR                                                                                                                  
                                                                                                                                
I assume that  exists in law, that principle, and  you as a state                                                               
agency,  I  assume, would  be  answering  to  the rest  of  state                                                               
government on that.  If that's not correct, let  me know. Second,                                                               
you  know, our  Department of  Revenue has  made some,  different                                                               
break-even prices. Where  is ENSTAR assuming that  the price will                                                               
be in 2033.                                                                                                                     
                                                                                                                                
10:34:24 AM                                                                                                                   
MR. KISSINGER                                                                                                                   
                                                                                                                                
The way  you look  at the market  is on the  basis of  a marginal                                                               
supplier.  You don't  look at  who  can supply  for the  cheapest                                                               
price into  the market, which in  a lot of different  ways before                                                               
the war was caught up. They don't  sell at that low price if they                                                               
produce that. Of course they sell  at the market rate. The market                                                               
rate gets  set by  whoever is  producing into  the market  at the                                                               
highest cost. That happens to  be the U.S. Gulf Coast, generally.                                                               
If  you break  down  just  the structure  to  go  from Henry  Hub                                                               
pricing to delivered LNG into  Asia, it goes something like this.                                                               
You buy  your gas at  Henry Hub prices  plus 15 percent.  That 15                                                               
percent  covers the  fuel, the  same way  we had  these questions                                                               
earlier around  why the  costs are different.  You still  have to                                                               
pay for  your fuel in  that low 48  model. If you're  thinking of                                                               
around a $4,  maybe $4 plus, just to make  the math easier, Henry                                                               
Hub price,  which is a  decent forecast for long-term  Henry Hub,                                                               
you'd be  around $5 by  the time it's  going into the  LNG plant,                                                               
because you're including that fuel.  Liquefaction across the U.S.                                                               
Gulf Coast  is pretty  standard. It's about  $2.50 per  MMBtu. So                                                               
that puts you  at $7.50 over there in the  U.S. Gulf Coast, still                                                               
needing  to be  delivered to  Asia. It's  about $2.50  to deliver                                                               
from the  U.S. Gulf Coast  to Asia, a lot  of that driven  by the                                                               
impacts of the Panama  Canal or having to go the  long way to get                                                               
there  because  you  avoid  the Panama  Canal.  That  achieves  a                                                               
delivered price into  Asia of $10. Then you have  to stress that.                                                               
You have to  be able to withstand periods of  time when Henry Hub                                                               
goes down to $2.50  like it does now. You also  have to take into                                                               
account that  a lot of  LNG is also  priced on Brent.  That's the                                                               
math on  U.S. Gulf Coast,  moving to the  math on Brent  and it's                                                               
usually sold  as a  percent of Brent.  Through casual  reading, I                                                               
think you'd  be able to  discover that  the price band  is fairly                                                               
narrow. It's  somewhere around 12 percent,  13 percent, sometimes                                                               
14  percent, sometimes  less, sometimes  11 percent  Brent. Let's                                                               
use 12 percent Brent as our  assumption now. Where you're at $100                                                               
oil, you're  paying $12 for  the LNG.  That's how that  works. If                                                               
you think of  $75 oil, which is, a long-term  stable view of oil,                                                               
that  would be  $9 for  an MMBtu.  What we're  trying to  beat is                                                               
somewhere in that $9 to $10 range.                                                                                              
                                                                                                                                
10:37:13 AM                                                                                                                   
SENATOR DUNBAR                                                                                                                  
                                                                                                                                
I think  that's a  good summary. It  does illustrate  perhaps the                                                               
necessity of  this legislation, but  it also sort  of illustrates                                                               
that, as Mr.  Stickel just said, this is in  some ways a marginal                                                               
project, and if  you go over 20 percent cost  overrun, you're not                                                               
really competitive,  even at  $1.50, and certainly  not at  $2 or                                                               
$2.50. It's good  testimony for this bill. It  sort of reiterates                                                               
what I  think a  lot of  us have  been feeling,  which is  we are                                                               
still skeptical that  the private market will step  in and invest                                                               
in this project.                                                                                                                
                                                                                                                                
10:38:08 AM                                                                                                                   
MR.  STICKEL moved  to slide  35, Sensitivity  Matrix; Cumulative                                                               
State Revenues through 2062, Nominal $ millions.                                                                                
                                                                                                                                
This shows  total cumulative state  revenue over the life  of the                                                               
project. Under  current law, state  and municipal  revenues would                                                               
increase  substantially with  higher  project  costs. We  assumed                                                               
that  those higher  project costs  would feed  through to  higher                                                               
property tax  valuations. You see  some upside to  state revenues                                                               
under current law.  Then the flip side of that  is risk to higher                                                               
state taxes  for the  developer. Under  this proposal,  state and                                                               
municipal  revenues would  be lower  across the  board, but  then                                                               
they would not increase if  there were higher project costs. When                                                               
folks are saying that the  bill de-risks the project, that's what                                                               
they're  talking about,  both the  lower tax  burden overall  and                                                               
then  lower risk  of facing  higher  taxes if  the project  value                                                               
comes in  higher than expected. You  see a similar sort  of chart                                                               
if we did  this for municipal revenues, but  even bigger numbers,                                                               
since  the majority  of  the  property tax  is  to the  municipal                                                               
owners.                                                                                                                         
                                                                                                                                
10:39:38 AM                                                                                                                   
MR. STICKEL  moved to slide  36, Sensitivity  Scenarios; In-State                                                               
Gas Cost, 2033 Nominal $/Mcf in 2033.                                                                                           
                                                                                                                                
Slide  36  is  a  tornado  chart,  another  form  of  sensitivity                                                               
analysis.  What we  did  here is  we looked  at  how certain  key                                                               
assumptions  could impact  that  break-even  in-state gas  price.                                                               
Under current law, starting with  the $4.86 as our baseline price                                                               
for  delivered in-state  gas, and  we looked  at property  taxes,                                                               
capital expenditures, that  rate of return to  the midstream, the                                                               
purchase price  of gas, and the  interest rate paid on  debt, and                                                               
what higher  or lower values for  each of those would  do to that                                                               
break-even  cost  of supply.  The  biggest  ways to  reduce  that                                                               
required price  for in-state  gas would  be through  property tax                                                               
relief and paying lower prices to  the producers for the gas. The                                                               
biggest  risks  to  the  upside would  be  higher  than  expected                                                               
project  costs and  paying  a higher  value for  the  gas to  the                                                               
producers.  You   see  this  bill  would   de-risk  that  capital                                                               
expenditures  risk  quite  a  bit in  addition  to  reducing  the                                                               
property tax burden.                                                                                                            
                                                                                                                                
10:41:13 AM                                                                                                                   
MR. STICKEL moved to slide  37, Sensitivity Scenarios; LNG export                                                               
price, Nominal $/Mcf in 2033.                                                                                                   
                                                                                                                                
by looking at the breakeven  LNG export price, $9.07 per thousand                                                               
cubic feet being the current law  baseline, and we see the impact                                                               
of those  key assumptions on  that required cost of  supply. Lots                                                               
of  risk to  the upside  in this  project, and  you can  see from                                                               
looking at the capex number  in particular, why it's important to                                                               
the developer  to de-risk  that capex,  especially if  they think                                                               
there's a  chance that  project costs could  come in  higher than                                                               
the $46 billion that we've assumed.                                                                                             
                                                                                                                                
10:41:59 AM                                                                                                                   
CHAIR GIESSEL                                                                                                                   
                                                                                                                                
I'm looking at the cost of  debt. I understand that there is some                                                               
hope   that  the   federal  government   will   have  some   loan                                                               
opportunities,  and would  that be  at the  lower interest  rate.                                                               
Where would that fall.                                                                                                          
                                                                                                                                
10:42:19 AM                                                                                                                   
MR. STICKEL                                                                                                                     
                                                                                                                                
We assume  a 5 percent  interest rate for  that cost of  debt. If                                                               
there was some  sort of reduction to that, we  show the impact if                                                               
those  rates  were  brought  down  to  3.5  percent,  that  would                                                               
materially  impact the  breakeven prices,  and then  we show  the                                                               
impact of  a higher  cost of  debt as  well. The  5 percent  is a                                                               
baseline  assumption.  It   incorporates  the  known  information                                                               
around the federal  loan guarantees that do  exist. Obviously, if                                                               
there was  additional support that  would be enacted,  that would                                                               
be a positive to the project.                                                                                                   
                                                                                                                                
10:43:00 AM                                                                                                                   
SENATOR CLAMAN                                                                                                                  
                                                                                                                                
Could you  repeat the  baseline price for  the LNG  export chart,                                                               
this one.                                                                                                                       
                                                                                                                                
10:43:06 AM                                                                                                                   
MR. STICKEL                                                                                                                     
                                                                                                                                
$9.07  per  thousand  cubic  feet  in 2033  is  our  current  law                                                               
baseline. That's where we start this tornado chart.                                                                             
                                                                                                                                
10:43:26 AM                                                                                                                   
MR.  STICKEL  moved  to  slide   38,  Summary:  Total  Government                                                               
Revenue, Part 1 of 2.                                                                                                           
                                                                                                                                
Slide 38 shows a summary  of total government revenues under this                                                               
bill,  and  we show  this  over  10, 20,  and  30  years of  full                                                               
production from  the project.  This is a  snapshot of  a detailed                                                               
summary  document that  we've provided  as a  committee document,                                                               
and we've split that into two slides here to make it reasonable.                                                                
                                                                                                                                
10:43:59 AM                                                                                                                   
SENATOR WIELECHOWSKI                                                                                                            
                                                                                                                                
Looking at  the upstream  corporate income  tax, what  would that                                                               
number be if  all the producers on the North  slope were paying a                                                               
corporate income tax.                                                                                                           
                                                                                                                                
10:44:09 AM                                                                                                                   
MR. STICKEL                                                                                                                     
                                                                                                                                
It  would be  about 50  percent higher,  roughly speaking,  about                                                               
two-thirds of the producers are paying corporate income tax.                                                                    
                                                                                                                                
10:44:22 AM                                                                                                                   
SENATOR WIELECHOWSKI                                                                                                            
                                                                                                                                
What  would that  number for  project corporate  income tax  look                                                               
like  if the  pipeline developer  or all  the others  involved in                                                               
this project were paying a corporate income tax.                                                                                
                                                                                                                                
10:44:38 AM                                                                                                                   
MR. STICKEL                                                                                                                     
                                                                                                                                
We can provide that. We haven't  calculated that out here. We are                                                               
assuming,  conservatively,  that  the midstream  would  pay  zero                                                               
corporate income tax.                                                                                                           
                                                                                                                                
10:45:07 AM                                                                                                                   
MR.  STICKEL  moved  to  slide   39,  Summary:  Total  Government                                                               
Revenue, Part 2 of 2.                                                                                                           
                                                                                                                                
Slide 39 is  the second half of this chart.  This entire analysis                                                               
has been  provided as a  committee document, but through  the 30-                                                               
year  modeling period,  looking at  a total  of $22.5  billion of                                                               
state  benefits over  the life  of  project, and  then nearly  $4                                                               
billion  to the  municipalities  over the  life  of project,  and                                                               
federal government income tax benefits  netting about $22 billion                                                               
over life  of project, so a  total of $48 billion  to the various                                                               
governments through 2062.                                                                                                       
                                                                                                                                
10:45:47 AM                                                                                                                   
SENATOR MYERS                                                                                                                   
                                                                                                                                
If you're going to provide us  numbers about if the midstream was                                                               
paying  the  corporate income  tax,  could  you also  provide  an                                                               
estimate of  what that  would do  to the gas  cost, both  for in-                                                               
state and for LNG sales.                                                                                                        
                                                                                                                                
10:46:05 AM                                                                                                                   
MR. STICKEL                                                                                                                     
                                                                                                                                
Yes.                                                                                                                            
                                                                                                                                
10:46:10 AM                                                                                                                   
SENATOR WIELECHOWSKI                                                                                                            
                                                                                                                                
Looking at  the oil production tax,  why is that a  decrease of a                                                               
couple hundred million dollars from 2052 to 2062.                                                                               
                                                                                                                                
10:46:21 AM                                                                                                                   
MR. STICKEL                                                                                                                     
                                                                                                                                
These  are   positive  impacts  above  and   beyond  the  revenue                                                               
forecast, and  what our modeling does  is it accounts for  all of                                                               
the  impacts  of  the  ability   of  companies  to  deduct  lease                                                               
expenditures  against the  oil tax.  It accounts  for all  of the                                                               
impacts of  per-taxable barrel credits,  and going from  the 2052                                                               
to the  2062 timeframe, we see  a net increase in  the production                                                               
tax paid  to the state overall  when you combine the  oil and the                                                               
gas  pieces, but  some of  the lease  expenditure deductions  and                                                               
per-taxable barrel credits  do reduce the oil side  of things. In                                                               
our modeling,  we calculate  out the gas  production tax,  the 13                                                               
percent  gross  tax,  we  calculate   out  the  oil  tax  net  of                                                               
everything,  and then  we  add  them together  to  get the  total                                                               
production tax impact.                                                                                                          
                                                                                                                                
10:47:33 AM                                                                                                                   
SENATOR WIELECHOWSKI                                                                                                            
                                                                                                                                
Am I reading that correctly, that  the oil production tax is $1.6                                                               
billion  positive through  2052,  but then  it  declines by  $275                                                               
million through the next 10 years.                                                                                              
                                                                                                                                
10:47:50 AM                                                                                                                   
MR. STICKEL                                                                                                                     
                                                                                                                                
Yeah, from the  2053 to 2062 timeframe, we do  expect a reduction                                                               
in oil production tax relative to  the forecast, but that will be                                                               
more than offset by increase to gas production tax.                                                                             
                                                                                                                                
10:48:18 AM                                                                                                                   
CHAIR GIESSEL                                                                                                                   
                                                                                                                                
Is this  reflecting the  deductions they  can take  against their                                                               
oil taxes as they produce more gas.                                                                                             
                                                                                                                                
10:48:29 AM                                                                                                                   
MR. STICKEL                                                                                                                     
                                                                                                                                
All our  modeling accounts  for the fact  that under  our current                                                               
production   tax   law,   any  incremental   lease   expenditures                                                               
associated with gas  development can be deducted  against the oil                                                               
tax  calculation. We  also account  for the  nuances of  the per-                                                               
taxable barrel  credits, which those  are generated based  on oil                                                               
production and  applied based on  the statewide  tax calculation.                                                               
Both of those factors are built into our modeling.                                                                              
                                                                                                                                
10:49:07 AM                                                                                                                   
MR. STICKEL moved to slide 40, Conclusions.                                                                                     
                                                                                                                                
The  AK LNG  project, if  it  was constructed,  it would  provide                                                               
billions of dollars  to the state and the  federal government and                                                               
local governments. It  would provide a new revenue  stream to the                                                               
upstream  producers and  a  new revenue  stream  for a  midstream                                                               
developer. It would  provide jobs and support  energy security in                                                               
the state and  nationally. This bill would reduce  the tax burden                                                               
on  the developer,  making the  project relatively  more economic                                                               
and  would help  de-risk the  project  in terms  of reducing  the                                                               
potential  impacts   of  higher  project  costs   or  higher  tax                                                               
assessments.                                                                                                                    
                                                                                                                                
10:50:02 AM                                                                                                                   
CHAIR GIESSEL                                                                                                                   
                                                                                                                                
The next  few slides are  sectionals, which  we don't have  to go                                                               
through. I do  want to ask you a question,  however, on slide 46,                                                               
and this  relates to  Alaska statute 4356-022.  This is  where it                                                               
imposes  a replacement  of all  state and  municipal property  ad                                                               
valorem, et  cetera, taxes.  It's all  written there.  Looking at                                                               
this, it's unclear to me whether  this is confined to certain oil                                                               
and gas properties or if this  applies across the state. Would it                                                               
be  applying then  to qualified  property  under that  definition                                                               
that is in Cook Inlet, for example, or in Middle Earth.                                                                         
                                                                                                                                
10:50:55 AM                                                                                                                   
MR. STICKEL                                                                                                                     
                                                                                                                                
I  can speak  to  what my  understanding of  the  intent is.  The                                                               
intent  is, if  you look  at  current property  tax law,  there's                                                               
language in  the statutes that property  tax is in lieu  of other                                                               
similar  taxes. That's  kind of  the  intent is  a fairly  narrow                                                               
exclusion. Municipalities,  the volumetric  tax would be  in lieu                                                               
of the property  tax or similar taxes. And so  the intent of that                                                               
is  not to  provide an  extremely broad  exclusion, but  a narrow                                                               
exclusion. We've  got Department of  Law on  who can opine  on in                                                               
further detail if that's helpful.                                                                                               
                                                                                                                                
10:51:40 AM                                                                                                                   
CHAIR GIESSEL                                                                                                                   
                                                                                                                                
It  would be.  Let's  see.  Ryan Farnsworth  is  online with  the                                                               
Department  of   Law.  Mr.  Farnsworth,  how   broadly  can  this                                                               
exclusion be applied.                                                                                                           
                                                                                                                                
10:51:56 AM                                                                                                                   
RYAN FARNSWORTH,  Assistant Attorney General, Department  of Law,                                                               
Anchorage, Alaska, answered questions on SB 280.                                                                                
                                                                                                                                
Is the question about the abatement of property tax.                                                                            
                                                                                                                                
CHAIR GIESSEL                                                                                                                   
                                                                                                                                
Yes, its  on slide 46,  but its  section 4356-022. It  seems very                                                               
broad. It  pertains to purchase,  use, consumption,  or ownership                                                               
of property or services in that municipality or jurisdiction.                                                                   
10:52:33 AM                                                                                                                   
MR. FARNSWORTH                                                                                                                  
                                                                                                                                
It is a broad exemption.                                                                                                        
                                                                                                                                
CHAIR GIESSEL                                                                                                                   
                                                                                                                                
Could it be applied to, let's  say, the Glenfarne, or AGDC has an                                                               
employee that  lives in  Bethel, and  they come  to work  for two                                                               
weeks in  Kenai. They're building  the export facility.  They are                                                               
going  to go  to  buy  some groceries.  We're  talking now  about                                                               
consumption,  right.  Purchase,  use, consumption.  Can  they  be                                                               
waived.  Can  they  receive  a  waiver on  the  property  or  the                                                               
municipal sales tax when they go  back to Bethel as well, or only                                                               
in the Kenai Borough, or how will that apply to the employee.                                                                   
                                                                                                                                
10:53:33 AM                                                                                                                   
MR. FARNSWORTH                                                                                                                  
                                                                                                                                
I don't think  the employee would be exempted from  sales tax for                                                               
lunch  purchased while  working.  It would  have  to be  property                                                               
that's  definitely  something  contributed   to  the  project  by                                                               
contract, so perhaps  catering for a large  event, something like                                                               
that for the project, but  I don't think individual lunches would                                                               
be exempt.                                                                                                                      
                                                                                                                                
10:53:56 AM                                                                                                                   
CHAIR GIESSEL                                                                                                                   
                                                                                                                                
That is  not defined here.  You're making an  assumption because,                                                               
of course,  regulations haven't  been written  to apply  this. Is                                                               
that true.                                                                                                                      
                                                                                                                                
10:54:09 AM                                                                                                                   
MR. FARNSWORTH                                                                                                                  
                                                                                                                                
No,  because  the alternative,  the  exemption  from the  tax  is                                                               
related to  the qualified property,  so it  has to be  related to                                                               
the property, the project, or something associated.                                                                             
                                                                                                                                
10:54:26 AM                                                                                                                   
SENATOR DUNBAR                                                                                                                  
                                                                                                                                
I just want  to ask another hypothetical, just a  little bit more                                                               
direct.  If Glenfarne  brought in  a bunch  of contractors  that,                                                               
again, were working  directly on the project, and  they stayed in                                                               
Anchorage for  a week in  hotels, would  they be exempt  from our                                                               
bed tax.                                                                                                                        
10:54:46 AM                                                                                                                   
MR. FARNSWORTH                                                                                                                  
                                                                                                                                
I would say no to that.                                                                                                         
                                                                                                                                
10:54:50 AM                                                                                                                   
SENATOR DUNBAR                                                                                                                  
                                                                                                                                
Why. The  way it's  written here. I  don't understand  why having                                                               
construction or  contract employees that are  directly working on                                                               
the  project wouldn't  be associated  with the  project. Are  you                                                               
saying it  has to be  something physical, physically  attached to                                                               
the project.                                                                                                                    
                                                                                                                                
MR. FARNSWORTH                                                                                                                  
                                                                                                                                
Not  necessarily.  It depends  who's  paying  that bill,  if  the                                                               
project's being billed or the individual.                                                                                       
                                                                                                                                
10:55:36 AM                                                                                                                   
SENATOR DUNBAR                                                                                                                  
                                                                                                                                
What about  Anchorage gas  tax if  you're filling  up a  bunch of                                                               
trucks headed  to the  project carrying  things for  the project.                                                               
Are they exempt from Anchorage gas tax.                                                                                         
                                                                                                                                
MR. FARNSWORTH                                                                                                                  
                                                                                                                                
That's probably a little detail  that isn't in this statute, this                                                               
draft.                                                                                                                          
                                                                                                                                
10:56:09 AM                                                                                                                   
SENATOR WIELECHOWSKI                                                                                                            
                                                                                                                                
I'm  curious  if the  Department  of  Revenue included  in  their                                                               
modeling how much  this section would cost  the municipalities or                                                               
the state.                                                                                                                      
                                                                                                                                
10:56:22 AM                                                                                                                   
MR. STICKEL                                                                                                                     
                                                                                                                                
We modeled to  what I understand is the intent  of the section. I                                                               
understand  that there  may be  an  amendment to  tighten up  the                                                               
language here that would be  helpful. I did have discussions with                                                               
the Governor's office  to understand what was  intended here. The                                                               
intent is  a narrow exemption,  basically to disallow  a property                                                               
tax by another  name. That's what the ABT would  be a replacement                                                               
for  the property  tax and  the type  of property  that would  be                                                               
taxable under  a property tax. The  intent is not to  include bed                                                               
taxes  and sales  taxes and  things like  that. When  we did  our                                                               
modeling, we modeled  to that intent. We looked  at the reduction                                                               
to the  property tax and  then the imposition of  the alternative                                                               
volumetric tax.                                                                                                                 
                                                                                                                                
10:57:21 AM                                                                                                                   
SENATOR WIELECHOWSKI                                                                                                            
                                                                                                                                
Different topic, but just a request.                                                                                            
                                                                                                                                
10:57:26 AM                                                                                                                   
CHAIR GIESSEL                                                                                                                   
                                                                                                                                
Could  I follow  up  then  just briefly  on  that. You're  saying                                                               
that's the  intent, but would you  agree that that intent  is not                                                               
actually fleshed out in this statement of a statute.                                                                            
                                                                                                                                
10:57:37 AM                                                                                                                   
MR. STICKEL                                                                                                                     
                                                                                                                                
We  would need  to put  regulations into  place. I  would suggest                                                               
that  we   would  look  at   that  intent  when   crafting  those                                                               
regulations.  If we  wanted to  put the  additional clarity  into                                                               
statute, that could be certainly helpful.                                                                                       
                                                                                                                                
10:57:54 AM                                                                                                                   
SENATOR WIELECHOWSKI                                                                                                            
                                                                                                                                
A request for  the department if they could get  us. Slide 33 was                                                               
the sensitivity matrix for in-state  gas as of 2033. That's phase                                                               
two. I'd like to see that chart  for phase one. I think that'd be                                                               
beneficial to the to the committee. Do you understand that.                                                                     
                                                                                                                                
10:58:17 AM                                                                                                                   
MR. STICKEL                                                                                                                     
                                                                                                                                
This  would be  a phase  one  only if  the full  project did  not                                                               
proceed. We are  in the process of preparing  that modeling. When                                                               
it's ready, we will re-present that.                                                                                            
                                                                                                                                
10:58:29 AM                                                                                                                   
SENATOR WIELECHOWSKI                                                                                                            
                                                                                                                                
Then  I  had  a  question  for Mr.  Kissinger.  I've  heard  from                                                               
constituents  and other  legislators that  there are  ads running                                                               
just on the  radio and on political blogs urging  support for the                                                               
LNG projects. I'm just curious who's paying for those.                                                                          
                                                                                                                                
10:58:52 AM                                                                                                                   
MR. KISSINGER                                                                                                                   
                                                                                                                                
It's my understanding that Glenfarne is paying for those.                                                                       
                                                                                                                                
10:59:03 AM                                                                                                                   
SENATOR WIELECHOWSKI                                                                                                            
                                                                                                                                
Is AEDC  paying for  those in  any way, or  have you  approved of                                                               
those.                                                                                                                          
                                                                                                                                
10:59:13 AM                                                                                                                   
MR. KISSINGER                                                                                                                   
                                                                                                                                
We have neither approved them nor paid for them.                                                                                
                                                                                                                                
10:59:23 AM                                                                                                                   
SENATOR CLAMAN                                                                                                                  
                                                                                                                                
I  want to  go  back  to the  discussion  about regulations,  Mr.                                                               
Stickel. There's this  theme that we often  hear, the regulations                                                               
have to  comply with the  law and  the regulations can't  do more                                                               
than the  law, and if we  have regulations that do  one thing and                                                               
the law  doesn't go that  far, then  there's a lawsuit  and says,                                                               
well,  those regulations  are improper.  If we're  concerned that                                                               
this, as drafted, is too broad,  why would we rely on regulations                                                               
to straighten it out.                                                                                                           
                                                                                                                                
10:59:58 AM                                                                                                                   
MR. STICKEL                                                                                                                     
                                                                                                                                
I'm  an economist,  not  a  lawyer. If  I  were  involved in  the                                                               
regulation process, I  shared what my view would be  and what the                                                               
intent  and  direction  from  the  administration  was  in  this.                                                               
Certainly,  we'd be  happy  to look  at  potential amendments  to                                                               
strengthen  up that  language to  make sure  that it  does indeed                                                               
match what the intent is.                                                                                                       
                                                                                                                                
11:01:01 AM                                                                                                                   
[CHAIR GIESSEL held SB 280 in committee.]                                                                                       
                                                                                                                                
11:01:12 AM                                                                                                                   
There being  no further  business to  come before  the committee,                                                               
Chair Giessel  adjourned the Senate Resources  Standing Committee                                                               
meeting at 11:01 a.m.                                                                                                           

Document Name Date/Time Subjects
SB 280- AGOCC Conservation Order 341F.pdf SRES 4/14/2026 9:00:00 AM
SB 280
SB280 GaffneyCline Presentation to SRES 4.14.26.pdf SRES 4/14/2026 9:00:00 AM
SRES 4/15/2026 3:30:00 PM
SRES 4/16/2026 9:00:00 AM
SB 280
SB280 Presentation to S.RES 03.30.26.pdf SAAF 3/30/2026 3:30:00 PM
SRES 3/30/2026 3:30:00 PM
SRES 4/13/2026 3:30:00 PM
SRES 4/14/2026 9:00:00 AM
SB 280