Legislature(2023 - 2024)BUTROVICH 205

05/09/2024 02:00 PM Senate RESOURCES

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02:01:04 PM Start
02:01:37 PM SB194
02:59:01 PM Adjourn
* first hearing in first committee of referral
+ teleconferenced
= bill was previously heard/scheduled
-- Please Note Time Change --
+= SB 194 REDUCE ROYALTY ON COOK INLET OIL & GAS TELECONFERENCED
Moved CSSB 194(RES) Out of Committee
Bills Previously Heard/Scheduled
**Streamed live on AKL.tv**
         SB 194-REDUCE ROYALTY ON COOK INLET OIL & GAS                                                                      
                                                                                                                                
2:01:37 PM                                                                                                                    
CO-CHAIR GIESSEL  announced the  consideration of SENATE  BILL NO.                                                              
194 "An  Act relating  to temporarily reduced  royalty on  oil and                                                              
gas  from pools  without  previous commercial  sales  in the  Cook                                                              
Inlet sedimentary basin; and providing for an effective date."                                                                  
                                                                                                                                
CO-CHAIR  GIESSEL   stated  the   committee  would   continue  its                                                              
discussion  from [May  8, 2024]  on  SB 194.  She said  it is  the                                                              
intent  of the  committee to  finish hearing  a presentation  from                                                              
GaffneyCline,   revisit   amendments,  and   move   SB  194   from                                                              
committee.                                                                                                                      
                                                                                                                                
2:02:54 PM                                                                                                                    
NICHOLAS  FULFORD, Senior  Director,  Gas  and Energy  Transition,                                                              
GaffneyCline,  Houston, Texas,  presented Gaffney  Modeling on  SB
194.  He stated  that  on May  8,  2024, the  committee  concluded                                                              
discussion  with a  series  of financial  projections  based on  a                                                              
model developed  by GaffneyCline. He  said the model focused  on a                                                              
potential  new   gas  development  in  Cook  Inlet   and  included                                                              
scenarios   involving   royalty    relief   for   10   years   and                                                              
indefinitely.  He  noted  that,  at the  committee's  request,  he                                                              
worked  with  the   Department  of  Natural  Resources   (DNR)  to                                                              
reconcile  the models.  He  intended  to present  an  illustrative                                                              
case to assist the committee in forming its recommendations:                                                                    
                                                                                                                                
[Original punctuation provided.]                                                                                                
                                                                                                                                
     Model Reconciliation                                                                                                     
       Model structure and methodology                                                                                        
       o Mechanics and methodology is consistent.                                                                               
       o Small property tax modification was made to GC                                                                         
          model to reflect typical DNR modelling approach                                                                       
       o Since DNR is using monthly profiles and the GC                                                                         
          model is based  on annual,  some difference  remain                                                                   
          in NPV/IRR but we  believe conclusions  are broadly                                                                   
          aligned.                                                                                                              
       o GC model does not yet reflect waterfall royalty                                                                        
          concept option                                                                                                        
                                                                                                                                
       Assumptions:                                                                                                           
       o GC/DNR have reconciled their assumptions about                                                                         
          utilization  factor  (differences   between  actual                                                                   
          daily nomination and  max production) and  agreed a                                                                   
          factor for the model                                                                                                  
       o GC's cost estimation arises from an industry                                                                           
          standard, detailed costing tool,  updated regularly                                                                   
          and  with  location  specific  factors.   DNR  have                                                                   
          focused more on  specific project opportunities  in                                                                   
          the public domain.  In general  GC suggests  higher                                                                   
          capex and opex than the assumptions used by DNR                                                                       
       o GC model also has an assumption for Abandonment                                                                        
          CAPEX, though  this does  not materially  influence                                                                   
          results.                                                                                                              
       Oil                                                                                                                    
        o GC model does not yet reflect oil scenarios, but                                                                      
        we have assessed the DNR approach to oil modelling                                                                      
        and agree with the methodology                                                                                          
        With these  features reconciled,  we have focused  on                                                                   
        two scenarios, a 250bcf offshore  new gas development                                                                   
        tied back  to  onshore, using  a  "base  case" and  a                                                                   
        "downside case"  which involves  a lower  utilization                                                                   
        rate, and higher capex/opex                                                                                             
                                                                                                                                
MR.  FULFORD stated  that the  modeling  conclusions reached  were                                                              
based  on   consistent  methods   between  GaffneyCline   and  the                                                              
Department  of Natural  Resources  (DNR). He  noted  that a  small                                                              
adjustment  was made  to the  property  tax modeling  and the  gas                                                              
decline  model  to   align  with  DNR  practices   in  Alaska.  He                                                              
explained  that  differences  remained,   such  as  GaffneyCline's                                                              
model  using  annual  intervals   while  DNR's  operates  monthly,                                                              
causing minor phasing  issues. He also mentioned  that their model                                                              
does not  yet incorporate  a proposed  royalty waterfall  and that                                                              
both parties  agreed to  include a  utilization factor  to account                                                              
for storage efficiencies and daily production.                                                                                  
                                                                                                                                
2:05:16 PM                                                                                                                    
MR. FULFORD said  the other main difference was  that GaffneyCline                                                              
used a sophisticated,  industry-standard cost  estimation modeling                                                              
approach that  includes detailed  inputs such as  platform weights                                                              
and  drill  depths.  He noted  the  model  is  updated  quarterly,                                                              
making it relatively  current. This approach formed  the basis for                                                              
their economic  modeling assumptions and development  concepts. He                                                              
stated  that, in  general, the  capital  expenditures (Capex)  and                                                              
operating expenses  (Opex) produced  by their model  were somewhat                                                              
higher  than  those used  by  DNR,  which  tended to  depress  the                                                              
economics. He said  another feature, though relatively  minor, was                                                              
the  inclusion of  abandonment  Capex, which  investors  typically                                                              
factor  into  models  and  is  becoming   increasingly  important,                                                              
especially  in   Cook  Inlet.  He  reminded  the   committee  that                                                              
[GaffneyCline's] modeling  does not yet include the  oil scenarios                                                              
analyzed by  DNR. However, he  confirmed that they  reviewed DNR's                                                              
methodology  and process  and  found them  sound.  Based on  DNR's                                                              
assumptions, he stated support for the figures DNR presented.                                                                   
                                                                                                                                
2:06:51 PM                                                                                                                    
MR. FULFORD moved to slide 3:                                                                                                   
                                                                                                                                
 [Original punctuation provided.]                                                                                               
                                                                                                                                
        Model Output for 250bcf Base Case (10 year relief)                                                                      
                                                                                                                                
                             Base Case                                                                                        
                       [Left side of slide]                                                                                   
                                                                                                                              
 Royalty Relief Case  NPV10   IRR             COP       Payback                                                     
 Gas12.5 percent     81       18 percent      2046      8                                                                       
 Gas0 percent       176       26 percent      2046      6                                                                       
 Gas5 percent       138       23 percent      2046      7                                                                       
 Gas6.25 percent    128       22 percent      2046      7                                                                       
                                                                                                                                
                         Downside Case                                                                                        
                     [Right side of slide]                                                                                    
                                                                                                                                
 Royalty Relief Case NPV10    IRR             COP       Payback                                                     
 Gas12.5 percent    -34       7 percent       2045      11                                                                      
 Gas0 percent -      56       15 percent      2045      9                                                                       
 Gas5 percent -      20       12 percent      2045      9                                                                       
 Gas6.25 percent     11       11 percent      2045      9                                                                       
                                                                                                                                
MR. FULFORD  said he developed  two scenarios for  the committee's                                                              
review. The left  scenario represents the base  case economics for                                                              
a 250 billion  cubic feet (BCF) Cook Inlet gas  development, using                                                              
assumptions  aligned  with  potential   investments  discussed  by                                                              
producers.  He described  it as  reflecting best-estimate  capital                                                              
and  operating  costs  and an  efficient  production  regime  with                                                              
minor limitations.  The right scenario  reflects a  downside case,                                                              
accounting   for  risks   such   as  aged   infrastructure,   slot                                                              
reclamation,  and tie-in  tariffs for  existing facilities,  which                                                              
could significantly  affect project economics. He  emphasized that                                                              
investors may  prioritize this  downside scenario when  evaluating                                                              
capital  deployment  due  to associated  risks  discussed  in  the                                                              
previous meeting.                                                                                                               
                                                                                                                                
MR. FULFORD  stated  that under  the base case  scenario with  the                                                              
current gas royalty  rate, the project yields an  internal rate of                                                              
return (IRR)  of approximately  18 percent.  He noted  that public                                                              
statements from  companies such as  BP, Exxon, and  Shell indicate                                                              
a general IRR target  of 15 to 20 percent or  higher, particularly                                                              
for  oil, with  gas requiring  even  higher returns  due to  added                                                              
risk.                                                                                                                           
                                                                                                                                
2:09:38 PM                                                                                                                    
MR. FULFORD said  under the downside scenario, the  IRR drops to 7                                                              
percent, which  he characterized as suboptimal;  however, removing                                                              
the gas royalty  raises it to about 15 percent.  He concluded that                                                              
an IRR  range from 15  to 26 percent,  depending on  royalty terms                                                              
and  scenario,  outlines  the spectrum  of  outcomes  a  developer                                                              
might  consider, and  said the two  tables offer  a clear  summary                                                              
for discussion of SB 194.                                                                                                       
                                                                                                                                
2:10:41 PM                                                                                                                    
SENATOR WIELECHOWSKI  asked if the  downside case is  a comparison                                                              
of the pessimistic DNR case for new offshore gas only.                                                                          
                                                                                                                                
2:11:03 PM                                                                                                                    
MR. FULFORD replied he believes so.                                                                                             
                                                                                                                                
2:11:09 PM                                                                                                                    
SENATOR WIELECHOWSKI  noted a significant disparity  in the status                                                              
quo,  particularly regarding  internal  rate of  return (IRR)  and                                                              
net present value  (NPV) assumptions. He highlighted  that under a                                                              
12.5  percent  royalty  rate,  the  downside  case  IRR  was  14.5                                                              
percent in one  model versus 7 percent in the  GaffneyCline model.                                                              
He  observed that  GaffneyCline  used a  10  percent NPV  discount                                                              
rate,  while the  other  model used  15  percent.  He pointed  out                                                              
further  discrepancies,  such  as   GaffneyCline  showing  a  6.25                                                              
percent IRR for  gas versus 20.7 percent in the  alternative model                                                              
and asked  for clarification on  the reasons behind using  a lower                                                              
net present value.                                                                                                              
                                                                                                                                
2:11:50 PM                                                                                                                    
MR.  FULFORD explained  that  two key  factors  contribute to  the                                                              
discrepancies in IRR  and NPV between the models.  First, he noted                                                              
that  the Department  of Natural  Resources  (DNR) model  includes                                                              
only half a  year of production  at the front end of  the profile,                                                              
which affects  the NPV  and IRR.  Second, he  stated that  the DNR                                                              
model  does not  account  for  production inefficiencies  such  as                                                              
storage  or   adjustments  in   daily  nominations,   whereas  the                                                              
GaffneyCline model  includes a 90  percent utilization  factor. He                                                              
acknowledged  the   existence  of  discrepancies  not   yet  fully                                                              
resolved  but   emphasized  that  the  models   are  directionally                                                              
aligned.                                                                                                                        
                                                                                                                                
2:12:57 PM                                                                                                                    
SENATOR WIELECHOWSKI  said the optimistic case between  the models                                                              
appears  fairly   similar,  but  the  pessimistic   case  shows  a                                                              
significant  difference.  He  characterized  the  situation  as  a                                                              
"battle  of  the experts"  and  stated  that he  personally  leans                                                              
toward  the Department  of Natural  Resources  (DNR), given  their                                                              
daily  involvement with  the data  and familiarity  with the  Cook                                                              
Inlet  basin.   He  acknowledged  that  GaffneyCline   joined  the                                                              
process  recently  and questioned  whether  GaffneyCline  believes                                                              
its expectations are more realistic than those of DNR.                                                                          
                                                                                                                                
2:13:40 PM                                                                                                                    
MR. FULFORD responded  that much of his commentary  is informed by                                                              
global trends and  international project data,  which GaffneyCline                                                              
used as  a proxy  for conditions  in Cook  Inlet. He  acknowledged                                                              
that  while their  modeling  aims  to reflect  the  cost base  and                                                              
environment of  Cook Inlet, he  respects DNR's deeper,  day-to-day                                                              
familiarity  with   the  region   and  ongoing  discussions   with                                                              
producers.   He    emphasized   that   the    GaffneyCline   model                                                              
incorporates  substantial  riskssuch   as  permitting  challenges,                                                              
environmental     assessments,    aging    infrastructure,     and                                                              
negotiations   with  facility   and   pipeline  ownerswhich    may                                                              
influence  the higher  operating  expense  (Opex) assumptions.  He                                                              
concluded that while  their model highlights these  risks, the DNR                                                              
downside case  may better reflect  the specific realities  of Cook                                                              
Inlet.                                                                                                                          
                                                                                                                                
2:15:53 PM                                                                                                                    
SENATOR WIELECHOWSKI  stated  that he believes  everyone  is aware                                                              
of which project  the modeling refers to and  expressed confidence                                                              
that DNR  has had  extensive discussions  with the project  owner.                                                              
He asked  whether GaffneyCline  has had  any direct  conversations                                                              
with the project owner involved in the modeling.                                                                                
                                                                                                                                
2:16:12 PM                                                                                                                    
MR. FULFORD  replied  no, GaffneyCline  has not  spoken to  any of                                                              
the development companies.                                                                                                      
                                                                                                                                
2:16:24 PM                                                                                                                    
SENATOR KAWASAKI  asked Mr. Fulford  for a high-level  response on                                                              
what other  jurisdictions engaged  in natural gas  development are                                                              
doing outside of the Cook Inlet Basin.                                                                                          
                                                                                                                                
2:16:45 PM                                                                                                                    
MR. FULFORD  stated that several  of his earlier  slides addressed                                                              
the question, but  summarized that many oil and  gas jurisdictions                                                              
are reassessing  their fiscal terms  and regulatory  frameworks to                                                              
compete for a  shrinking pool of investment capital.  He explained                                                              
that a  key trend  is recognizing  that each  asset type  requires                                                              
tailored  treatment,  and  instead   of  applying  uniform  fiscal                                                              
regimes,  governments  are increasingly  targeting  specific  sub-                                                              
basins or development  types. In the case of dry  gas, he said the                                                              
development  conditions can  be  so unique  that legislation  must                                                              
often be  designed specifically for  the asset. He  concluded that                                                              
Alaska's consideration  of SB  194 reflects  this global  trend of                                                              
asset-specific fiscal assessment.                                                                                               
                                                                                                                                
2:18:51 PM                                                                                                                    
SENATOR KAWASAKI  stated  that during his  involvement with  House                                                              
Bill 280  in 2010, he  felt the state  was chasing a  goal without                                                              
long-term  stability in  its fiscal  regime. He  noted that  while                                                              
the  approach  initially  showed  results,  it  ultimately  lacked                                                              
durability.  He  pointed  out that  major  shifts  occurred  since                                                              
then,  including the  United  States becoming  a  net exporter  of                                                              
natural  gas  and  the rise  of  hydraulic  fracturing.  Comparing                                                              
Alaska's  current position  to other regimes  nationwide,  he said                                                              
the outlook  appears bleak  if the  state must commit  significant                                                              
funds with  no guaranteed gas  return. He expressed  opposition to                                                              
subsidizing projects that are not economically viable.                                                                          
                                                                                                                                
2:19:52 PM                                                                                                                    
MR.  FULFORD  responded  that while  the  question  contains  both                                                              
technical and  policy elements, he  could offer insights  from his                                                              
experience  in the  gas industry.  He emphasized  that Cook  Inlet                                                              
holds a  pivotal role  in Alaska's economy  due to its  importance                                                              
in supplying  gas to  electric and  gas utilities. Unlike  regions                                                              
such  as the  shallow water  Gulf of  Mexico, where  gas enters  a                                                              
mature,  supply-and-demand-driven  wholesale  market,  Cook  Inlet                                                              
serves a much more  localized and unique market. He  added that he                                                              
has  been surprised  by how  significantly  capital has  withdrawn                                                              
from the  oil and gas  sector, largely  due to climate  policy and                                                              
related  concerns. However,  he  observed early  signs  of a  slow                                                              
return  of capital  in  the past  six  months,  driven by  growing                                                              
recognition  that without  reinvestment,  regions like  Alaskaand                                                               
othersface   serious challenges  in  energy costs  and supply.  He                                                              
expressed  hope  that  a combination  of  royalty  reductions  and                                                              
renewed  investor interest  in traditional  energy  infrastructure                                                              
could help bring in investment and additional new supplies.                                                                     
                                                                                                                                
2:22:20 PM                                                                                                                    
SENATOR  WIELECHOWSKI stated  that if  the royalty  in Cook  Inlet                                                              
were  reduced to  0 percent,  the  internal rate  of return  (IRR)                                                              
would increase from  18 to 26 percent in the base  case and from 7                                                              
to 15  percent in  the downside  case. He  then asked  Mr. Fulford                                                              
for his  opinion on  the likelihood of  a producer moving  forward                                                              
with the project  and bringing the gas to development  under those                                                              
conditions.                                                                                                                     
                                                                                                                                
2:22:48 PM                                                                                                                    
MR.  FULFORD replied  that  the question  is  obviously tricky  to                                                              
answer.  He said  that based  on the  modeled numbers,  mitigating                                                              
some of  the downside  risks would  likely make  an investor  more                                                              
comfortable about  moving forward with the project.  He added that                                                              
other factors  come into play,  including actions that  gas buyers                                                              
could take to  strengthen the investment case. He  stated that the                                                              
nature of the  dialogue between Cook Inlet producers,  the context                                                              
of infrastructure  and storage,  and various other  elements could                                                              
all move the  needle and make development more  feasible. He noted                                                              
that some of  this involves potential actions by  the legislature,                                                              
some  by   regulatory  agencies,   and  some  by   the  developers                                                              
themselves.                                                                                                                     
                                                                                                                                
2:24:13 PM                                                                                                                    
SENATOR WIELECHOWSKI  said the project  appears to  carry enormous                                                              
risk,  but also has  the potential  to secure  Cook Inlet's  power                                                              
supply  and support  Alaska's economy  for at  least a decade.  He                                                              
stated that  the development  could effectively  solve gas  prices                                                              
for  that period,  and  if the  cost  is around  $120  millionthe                                                               
Department of  Natural Resources'  (DNR) estimate of  lost royalty                                                              
revenueit   does  not seem  like  a  bad investment.  However,  he                                                              
acknowledged that  it is not  a guaranteed outcome.  He referenced                                                              
an alternative  provision involving reserves-based  lending, which                                                              
has not  been modeled, and asked  Mr. Fulford for  his perspective                                                              
on  a scenario  where the  state  directly funds  the project.  He                                                              
suggested  this  approach  may be  more  certain  and  financially                                                              
beneficial  to  the   state,  depending  on  how   the  terms  are                                                              
negotiated.                                                                                                                     
                                                                                                                                
2:25:37 PM                                                                                                                    
MR. FULFORD stated  that he agreed with most of the  point made by                                                              
Senator  Wielechowski.  He  said   that  based  on  the  project's                                                              
economics,  the   state's  cost   of  capital,  and   the  lending                                                              
mechanisms available  through various captive  agencies, providing                                                              
reserves-based  lending  could  be  a  prudent  step  forward.  He                                                              
explained that this  approach would effectively hedge  the state's                                                              
exposurepotentially     losing   gas    royalties   but    gaining                                                              
appropriate interest  on loans made to the project.  He added that                                                              
while  such a  strategy  might not  be suitable  in  jurisdictions                                                              
without  a  direct  connection   between  gas  resources  and  the                                                              
broader economy,  in Alaska's case,  where that link  is critical,                                                              
it appears to be an appropriate use of state resources.                                                                         
                                                                                                                                
2:26:50 PM                                                                                                                    
SENATOR  WIELECHOWSKI  asked  whether   there  is  a  better  path                                                              
forward,  emphasizing that  the state  must act.  He reflected  on                                                              
past  efforts involving  tax  breaks, deductions,  and  incentives                                                              
like  bringing in  jack-up  rigs,  which provided  only  temporary                                                              
solutions.  He  stated that  the  situation  now feels  like  "the                                                              
cliff,"  with   limited  options  remaining.  He   referenced  the                                                              
current  policy  choices  under  considerationroyalty   relief  at                                                              
various  levels,  potential  reserves-based  lendingand   stressed                                                              
that  with heat  and electricity  for  70 percent  of Alaskans  at                                                              
stake,   the   consequences   are   serious.  He   asked   for   a                                                              
recommendation and if there is a better alternative.                                                                            
                                                                                                                                
2:27:41 PM                                                                                                                    
MR. FULFORD  said he  is happy to  offer directional  comments but                                                              
emphasized that  management and  policy decisions ultimately  fall                                                              
under  the  jurisdiction  of the  legislature.  Referring  to  his                                                              
final slide  from the  previous day, he  noted that  state lending                                                              
is clearly  one lever that  may remove  "one feature from  the log                                                              
jam." He  added that another material  factor  though not  part of                                                              
the  modeling request   is the  presence of  five or  six key  gas                                                              
buyers,  including power  generators,  industrial  users, and  gas                                                              
utilities,   each  with   different  demand   profiles  and   risk                                                              
tolerances.  He explained  that  in other  countries,  governments                                                              
have acted  as aggregators on the  buy side, creating  a mechanism                                                              
to pool  and allocate gas among  these varied buyers,  which would                                                              
not happen  if each buyer acted  alone. He suggested that  a buyer                                                              
cooperative model,  with the state  playing an intermediary  role,                                                              
could  reduce  risk  for  Cook  Inlet  gas  developers.  While  he                                                              
acknowledged  the complexity  of  such a  structure,  he said  the                                                              
concept may be worth consideration.                                                                                             
                                                                                                                                
SENATOR GIESSEL said that it sounds like an RRC and an RTO.                                                                     
                                                                                                                                
2:29:59 PM                                                                                                                    
SENATOR  DUNBAR stated  that even  a  7 percent  internal rate  of                                                              
return  (IRR), while  insufficient  for  a private  investor,  may                                                              
still  be acceptable  for  the state.  He  pointed  out that  some                                                              
state accounts  and entities  currently earn  much lower  returns.                                                              
He suggested that  if Alaska could invest at  that rateor  ideally                                                              
achieve something  higherwhile  also securing gas  supply for Cook                                                              
Inlet,  it would  be a  sensible move.  He said  this aligns  with                                                              
what  he  interpreted  Mr.  Fulford   as  indicating  [that  state                                                              
involvement  could  both  support  energy  needs  and  generate  a                                                              
reasonable financial return.]                                                                                                   
                                                                                                                                
2:30:38 PM                                                                                                                    
MR. FULFORD  explained that  a 7 percent  IRR might  be acceptable                                                              
for a  wind or  solar project,  as, in  today's world,  capital is                                                              
generally  more willing to  support those  types of  developments.                                                              
However, he  noted that  the trend  for oil and  gas is  moving in                                                              
the opposite  direction, with investor expectations  significantly                                                              
higher.  He said  that for  a private  oil and gas  investor,  a 7                                                              
percent  IRR  would  fall  far  below  what  could  be  considered                                                              
acceptable.  He  acknowledged,  however,  that  from  the  state's                                                              
perspective, the return profile might be viewed differently.                                                                    
                                                                                                                                
2:31:39 PM                                                                                                                    
SENATOR  DUNBAR  stated that  the  Permanent Fund  Dividend  earns                                                              
approximately  a  9  percent  return  and  is  regarded  as  well-                                                              
managed.  He  emphasized that  an  investment  by Alaska  in  Cook                                                              
Inlet,  with  the  understanding   that  the  gas  produced  would                                                              
directly serve  constituents and neighbors, justifies  accepting a                                                              
lower  return and  a  different risk  profile.  He expressed  hope                                                              
that the provision remains in the final legislation.                                                                            
                                                                                                                                
2:32:17 PM                                                                                                                    
SENATOR  KAUFMAN said  that when  evaluating  an investment,  it's                                                              
essential  to  assess  both  the risk  profile  and  the  expected                                                              
returns.  He noted  that the lack  of interest  from investors  in                                                              
Cook Inlet  reflects not only  a static  economic view but  also a                                                              
dynamic,  probabilistic  assessment   similar  to  a  Monte  Carlo                                                              
analysis   that  considers  not  just whether  a  bad  year  might                                                              
occur,  but  when  it  occurs  and  how  it  affects  returns.  He                                                              
highlighted global  uncertainties, such  as the resolution  of the                                                              
RussiaUkraine   conflict  and its  impact  on gas  markets,  which                                                              
underpin   GaffneyCline's  globally   oriented  presentation.   He                                                              
stressed  that Cook  Inlet  faces significant  local  constraints,                                                              
including  complex geology,  harsh  environmental conditions,  and                                                              
infrastructure  limitations.  These   are  compounded  by  broader                                                              
policy  dynamics  like  portfolio   standards  aimed  at  reducing                                                              
hydrocarbon  reliance  and  the  potential  for  North  Slope  gas                                                              
monetization,  which could  saturate  the market.  He stated  that                                                              
given  these  constraints,  the  state's options  are  limited  to                                                              
either direct  capitalization of  the project or  indirect support                                                              
through royalty reductions.                                                                                                     
                                                                                                                                
2:35:18 PM                                                                                                                    
SENATOR  KAUFMAN  emphasized  that   while  fine-tuning  financial                                                              
projections  is  important, the  primary  objective  should be  to                                                              
stimulate  gas development.  He argued that  royalty relief  could                                                              
incentivize  producers  to invest  but  acknowledged  the need  to                                                              
address  the  broader  risk  landscape.   He  then  asked  whether                                                              
reduced  royalties alone  could provide  sufficient incentive  for                                                              
investment, or  if a  more complex solution  is necessary  to move                                                              
projects forward.                                                                                                               
                                                                                                                                
2:35:59 PM                                                                                                                    
MR.  FULFORD  said  that  one  positive   aspect  of  the  current                                                              
analysis is that  the project economics fall within  a range where                                                              
policy  changes can  make a  meaningful  difference. He  explained                                                              
that  if the  numbers were  either clearly  unviable or  extremely                                                              
strong, altering  the royalty structure would have  little impact.                                                              
However,   in   the   downside    case,   removing   the   royalty                                                              
significantly  mitigates  the weaker  financial  outcomeprecisely                                                               
the scenario  investors are most  concerned about. He  stated that                                                              
for  that reason,  royalty  relief  would  likely be  viewed  very                                                              
positively and could be a deciding factor for investment.                                                                       
                                                                                                                                
MR. FULFORD added  that other measures discussed,  such as lending                                                              
mechanisms  and   structured  financial  support,   would  further                                                              
enhance  the project's  attractiveness.  These  tools could  shift                                                              
the investment outlook  enough to prompt developers  to reevaluate                                                              
and reengage.  He concluded by  emphasizing the importance  of the                                                              
broader signal  sent by  legislationthat   the state is  committed                                                              
to supporting development  and is willing to work  with developers                                                              
to make it happen.                                                                                                              
                                                                                                                                
2:38:18 PM                                                                                                                    
At ease.                                                                                                                        
                                                                                                                                
2:40:33 PM                                                                                                                    
CO-CHAIR GIESSEL reconvened the meeting.                                                                                        
                                                                                                                                
2:40:37 PM                                                                                                                    
CO-CHAIR GIESSEL  said the committee  would consider  8 amendments                                                              
to SB 194.                                                                                                                      
                                                                                                                                
2:40:50 PM                                                                                                                    
CO-CHAIR GIESSEL  moved to rescind action in  adopting Amendment 1                                                              
(A.1).                                                                                                                          
                                                                                                                                
2:41:04 PM                                                                                                                    
SENATOR KAUFMAN objected for purposes of discussion.                                                                            
                                                                                                                                
2:41:08 PM                                                                                                                    
CO-CHAIR  GIESSEL  said her  intent  is  to withdraw  Amendment  1                                                              
(A.1) because it is non-essential.                                                                                              
                                                                                                                                
2:41:25 PM                                                                                                                    
SENATOR KAUFMAN removed his objection.                                                                                          
                                                                                                                                
2:41:30 PM                                                                                                                    
CO-CHAIR  GIESSEL  found  no  further   objection,  which  brought                                                              
Amendment 1 (A.1)  before the committee. She withdrew  Amendment 1                                                              
(A.1).                                                                                                                          
                                                                                                                                
CO-CHAIR  GIESSEL sought  confirmation  that  Amendment [2]  (A.2)                                                              
would remain withdrawn.                                                                                                         
                                                                                                                                
SENATOR WIELECHOWSKI answered in the affirmative.                                                                               
                                                                                                                                
2:41:51 PM                                                                                                                    
CO-CHAIR GIESSEL  stated Amendment  [3] (A.7), by  Senator Claman,                                                              
was adopted [at  a previous meeting] on a vote of  4:3. She stated                                                              
since Amendment  [3] (A.7)  has no fiscal  impact and  there being                                                              
no objection, it will remain adopted.                                                                                           
                                                                                                                                
2:42:27 PM                                                                                                                    
CO-CHAIR   GIESSEL  asked   if  Amendment   [4]  (A.10)   remained                                                              
withdrawn.                                                                                                                      
                                                                                                                                
SENATOR  WIELECHOWSKI stated  he  was not  offering Amendment  [4]                                                              
(A.10).                                                                                                                         
                                                                                                                                
CO-CHAIR GIESSEL stated Amendment  [4] (A.10) remained withdrawn.                                                               
                                                                                                                                
2:42:42 PM                                                                                                                    
CO-CHAIR  GIESSEL stated  Amendment  [5] (A.14),  as amended,  was                                                              
adopted  by unanimous  consent.  The  amendment to  Amendment  [5]                                                              
(A.14) changed the year on line 4 to 2031.                                                                                      
                                                                                                                                
2:43:13 PM                                                                                                                    
At ease.                                                                                                                        
                                                                                                                                
2:44:09 PM                                                                                                                    
CO-CHAIR  GIESSEL   reconvened  the  meeting  and   restated  that                                                              
Amendment [5] (A.14), as amended, remained adopted.                                                                             
                                                                                                                                
2:44:29 PM                                                                                                                    
CO-CHAIR  GIESSEL   stated  Amendment   [6]  (A.15),   by  Senator                                                              
Kaufman, was previously withdrawn.                                                                                              
                                                                                                                                
2:44:37 PM                                                                                                                    
SENATOR KAUFMAN moved to adopt Amendment [6] (A.15).                                                                            
                                                                                                                                
                                                                                                                                
                                                33-GS2381\A.15                                                                  
                                                        Nauman                                                                  
                                                        5/2/24                                                                  
                                                                                                                                
                                                                                                                                
                     A M E N D M E N T [6]                                                                                  
                                                                                                                                
                                                                                                                                
     OFFERED IN THE SENATE                   BY SENATOR KAUFMAN                                                                 
          TO:  SB 194                                                                                                           
                                                                                                                                
Page 4, line 11:                                                                                                                
          Delete "a royalty of five percent"                                                                                    
          Insert "the [A] royalty percentage set out in                                                                 
     this paragraph [OF FIVE PERCENT]"                                                                                      
                                                                                                                                
     Page 4, line 13:                                                                                                           
          Delete "for"                                                                                                      
                                                                                                                                
     Page 4, lines 14 - 15:                                                                                                     
          Delete "] 10 years following the date on which                                                                        
     the production for commercial sale commences"                                                                          
          Insert "10 YEARS FOLLOWING THE DATE ON WHICH THE                                                                      
     PRODUCTION FOR SALE COMMENCES]"                                                                                            
                                                                                                                                
     Page 4, line 16:                                                                                                           
          Delete "of five percent may"                                                                                      
          Insert "percentage described in this paragraph                                                                    
     does"                                                                                                                  
                                                                                                                                
     Page 4, line 17:                                                                                                           
          Delete "five percent in"                                                                                          
          Insert "the applicable percentage of"                                                                             
                                                                                                                                
     Page 4, line 18, following "lease":                                                                                    
          Insert "; the royalty rate under this paragraph                                                                   
     is                                                                                                                     
               (A)  0.1 percent for oil or gas produced on                                                                  
     and after January 1, 2025, and before January 1, 2028;                                                                 
               (B)  0.1 percent for gas produced and five                                                                   
     percent for oil produced on and after January 1, 2028,                                                                 
     and before January 1, 2031;                                                                                            
               (C)  five percent for gas produced and five                                                                  
     percent for oil produced on and after January 1, 2031,                                                                 
     and before January 1, 2036"                                                                                            
                                                                                                                                
2:44:41 PM                                                                                                                    
CO-CHAIR GIESSEL objected for purposes of discussion.                                                                           
                                                                                                                                
2:44:43 PM                                                                                                                    
SENATOR  KAUFMAN  explained  that  the purpose  of  Amendment  [6]                                                              
(A.15)  is  to shape  an  incentive  structure  that  communicates                                                              
urgency  and   establishes  an   economic  rationale   for  acting                                                              
quickly. He stated  that the amendment sets an  initial royalty of                                                              
0.1 percent  for oil  and gas  produced between  January 1,  2025,                                                              
and before January  1, 2028. The rate then increases  to 1 percent                                                              
for gas and  5 percent for  oil produced between January  1, 2028,                                                              
and  before  January  1,  2031. Finally,  the  royalty  becomes  5                                                              
percent for  oil and 5 percent for  gas from January 1,  2031, and                                                              
before January 1, 2036.                                                                                                         
                                                                                                                                
SENATOR  KAUFMAN addressed  the question  of why  oil is  included                                                              
when the state  is focused on gas,  explaining that oil  acts as a                                                              
strong  incentive  "oil  is  to gold  as gas  is  to silver."  The                                                              
analogy  illustrates the  value of  incentivizing exploration.  He                                                              
concluded that  a powerful, front-loaded incentive  structure will                                                              
attract  producers   sooner  and   encourage  faster   development                                                              
compared  to a flat-rate  approach  that lacks  a clear signal  of                                                              
urgency.                                                                                                                        
                                                                                                                                
2:46:43 PM                                                                                                                    
SENATOR  DUNBAR said  he  supports the  concept  of Amendment  [6]                                                              
(A.15)  but would  like  to  tweak the  numbers  and  may offer  a                                                              
conceptual amendment  to the amendment.  He pointed to slide  6 of                                                              
the  DNR  presentation,  which  shows  the  pessimistic  case  and                                                              
models both  gas and oil.  He noted that  gas is set at  zero, and                                                              
oil at  6.25 percent is still  profitable across all  projects and                                                              
scenarios,  even  more so  at  5  percent.  His concern  with  the                                                              
current [royalty] waterfall  structure is that it sets  oil at 0.1                                                              
percent during  the first period,  and he said, "We're  not trying                                                              
to incentivize things that are going to happen anyway."                                                                         
                                                                                                                                
SENATOR DUNBAR proposed the following adjustments:                                                                              
                                                                                                                                
a) keep gas close to zero and oil at 5 percent;                                                                                 
                                                                                                                                
b) keep gas close to zero and raise oil to 6.25 percent;                                                                        
                                                                                                                                
c) increase the final step from 5 percent to 6.25 percent.                                                                      
                                                                                                                                
He said  that if the  pessimistic case  is accurate, then  even at                                                              
6.25 percent  the projects still  go forward, and the  state loses                                                              
less revenue.  He reiterated  his support for  the idea  of front-                                                              
loading the incentive  but said his only issue  with the [royalty]                                                              
waterfall  is giving  a break to  oil that  DNR modeling  suggests                                                              
doesn't need it.                                                                                                                
                                                                                                                                
2:48:36 PM                                                                                                                    
CO-CHAIR GIESSEL invited DNR to comment.                                                                                        
                                                                                                                                
2:48:55 PM                                                                                                                    
JOHN BOYLE, Commissioner,  Department of Natural  Resources (DNR),                                                              
Anchorage,  Alaska, answered  questions on  Amendment [6]  (A.15).                                                              
He stated  that the  Department  is supportive  of the concept  in                                                              
Amendment  [6] (A.15).  He described  it  as a  novel approach  to                                                              
incentivizing  quick action,  which aligns  with the  Department's                                                              
policy intent behind  offering the bill. He called  the proposal a                                                              
relatively  straightforward yet  elegant solution  to address  the                                                              
need for urgency.  He also emphasized the importance  of including                                                              
royalty  relief  for  both  oil  and gas,  noting  that  doing  so                                                              
supports  the  overall health  of  the  Cook Inlet  ecosystem.  He                                                              
concluded that, based  on how the amendment has  been presented so                                                              
far, the Department is very supportive.                                                                                         
                                                                                                                                
2:50:08 PM                                                                                                                    
JOHN  CROWTHER,   Deputy  Commissioner,   Department   of  Natural                                                              
Resources, Anchorage, Alaska, agreed on Amendment [6] (A.15).                                                                   
                                                                                                                                
2:50:19 PM                                                                                                                    
SENATOR  KAUFMAN  said  that, personally,  he  views  the  current                                                              
proposal  as a  framework and  believes  more work  is needed.  He                                                              
emphasized  the  value of  additional  modeling to  fine-tune  the                                                              
royalty structure,  including both  the rates  and the  timing. He                                                              
stated that  while the structure  is sound, the  specific numbers                                                               
percentages  and  timeframesshould   continue  to be  debated  and                                                              
refined.  He noted  that although  a graphic  presentation is  not                                                              
available at this  stage due to the bill moving  forward today, it                                                              
would be  helpful in  the future to  visualize the timeframes  and                                                              
rates  in  order to  find  the  "sweet  spot." He  concluded  that                                                              
having a clear,  well-calibrated structure would  not only inspire                                                              
confidence but also have real impact in the marketplace.                                                                        
                                                                                                                                
2:51:32 PM                                                                                                                    
SENATOR DUNBAR stated  his intent to offer a  conceptual amendment                                                              
to  Amendment  [6]   (A.15).  He  said  he  agreed   with  Senator                                                              
Kaufman's point  about the need  for further refinement of  SB 194                                                              
in the  Finance Committee,  but emphasized that  he does  not want                                                              
to send the  bill to Finance  with oil royalties dropping  to zero                                                              
at any  point. He noted  that a zero oil  royalty was not  part of                                                              
the  governor's  original  proposal and  that  modeling  indicates                                                              
such  a  reduction  is  unnecessary.  He  expressed  concern  that                                                              
sending the  bill forward with a  zero oil royalty would  give the                                                              
impression  that  the Resources  Committee  ignored  the  modeling                                                              
data.                                                                                                                           
                                                                                                                                
SENATOR DUNBAR  offered Conceptual  Amendment  1 to Amendment  [6]                                                              
(A.15), authorizing  Legislative Legal Services to  make technical                                                              
and conforming changes:                                                                                                         
                                                                                                                                
            CONCEPTUAL AMENDMENT 1 TO AMENDMENT [6]                                                                         
                                                                                                                              
                                            BY SENATOR DUNBAR                                                                   
                                                                                                                                
      Page 2, line 1, following "for":                                                                                          
                                                                                                                                
           Delete: "oil or"                                                                                                     
                                                                                                                                
      Page2, line 1, following "produced':                                                                                      
                                                                                                                                
           Insert: "and 5 percent for oil produced"                                                                             
                                                                                                                                
      Page 2, line 3, following "and":                                                                                          
                                                                                                                                
           Delete: "five"                                                                                                       
           Insert: "6.25"                                                                                                       
                                                                                                                                
      Page 2, line 5, following "and":                                                                                          
                                                                                                                                
        Delete: "five"                                                                                                          
        Insert: "6.25"                                                                                                          
                                                                                                                                
2:53:15 PM                                                                                                                    
CO-CHAIR  GIESSEL found no  objection and  Conceptual Amendment  1                                                              
to  Amendment [6]  (A.15) was  adopted. Amendment  [6] (A.15),  as                                                              
amended, was before the committee.                                                                                              
                                                                                                                                
2:53:30 PM                                                                                                                    
CO-CHAIR GIESSEL  asked what  the production  tax rate is  in Cook                                                              
Inlet.                                                                                                                          
                                                                                                                                
2:53:39 PM                                                                                                                    
MR. CROWTHER  replied that he did  not want to misstate  the exact                                                              
formulation  or percentages  and  said the  Department of  Revenue                                                              
would be  the appropriate  source for  that information.  He noted                                                              
that it  would be an  easy question for  them to answer.  He added                                                              
that,  to his  understanding,  Cook  Inlet has  a  very low,  flat                                                              
production  tax and does  not include  the complex elements  found                                                              
in the North Slope production tax.                                                                                              
                                                                                                                                
2:54:07 PM                                                                                                                    
CO-CHAIR GIESSEL  stated her belief that Mr.  Crowther was correct                                                              
and  recalled legislation  passed  in 2018  addressing the  issue.                                                              
She noted  that someone in the  audience also confirmed  this. She                                                              
asked  committee members  to  keep in  mind  that when  discussing                                                              
royalty  rates, the  production  tax in  Cook Inlet  is very  low                                                               
close to  zero- and it  is the last  remaining portion  of revenue                                                              
the state receives from Cook Inlet.                                                                                             
                                                                                                                                
2:54:47 PM                                                                                                                    
CO-CHAIR  GIESSEL  removed her  objection.  She found  no  further                                                              
objection and Amendment [6] (A.15), as amended, was adopted.                                                                    
                                                                                                                                
2:55:30 PM                                                                                                                    
CO-CHAIR GIESSEL  said Amendment [7]  (A.16) was withdrawn  at the                                                              
committee's last meeting.                                                                                                       
                                                                                                                                
2:55:35 PM                                                                                                                    
CO-CHAIR GIESSEL solicited a motion.                                                                                            
                                                                                                                                
2:55:36 PM                                                                                                                    
SENATOR  WIELECHOWSKI  said  he  was not  offering  Amendment  [7]                                                              
(A.16).                                                                                                                         
                                                                                                                                
2:55:42 PM                                                                                                                    
CO-CHAIR GIESSEL said Amendment [7] (A.16) remains withdrawn.                                                                   
                                                                                                                                
2:55:48 PM                                                                                                                    
CO-CHAIR GIESSEL  stated the committee is on  Amendment [8] (A.17)                                                              
and solicited a motion.                                                                                                         
                                                                                                                                
2:56:09 PM                                                                                                                    
SENATOR  WIELECHOWSKI   said  Amendment  [8]  (A.17)   relates  to                                                              
reporting,  DNR supports the  amendment, and  it should  remain in                                                              
SB 194.                                                                                                                         
                                                                                                                                
2:56:17 PM                                                                                                                    
CO-CHAIR GIESSEL  said the  adoption of  Amendment [8]  (A.17) was                                                              
maintained.                                                                                                                     
                                                                                                                                
2:56:24 PM                                                                                                                    
CO-CHAIR  GIESSEL  said  Senator  Wielechowski  asked  to  revisit                                                              
Amendment [5] (A.14).                                                                                                           
                                                                                                                                
2:56:36 PM                                                                                                                    
SENATOR  WIELECHOWSKI stated  that, in  light of  the adoption  of                                                              
Amendment  [6] (A.15),  as amended,  Amendment  [5] (A.14)  likely                                                              
presents  a conflict.  He  said  he wanted  to  confirm this  with                                                              
Senator Kaufman.                                                                                                                
                                                                                                                                
2:56:50 PM                                                                                                                    
SENATOR KAUFMAN stated his belief that it might.                                                                                
                                                                                                                                
2:56:54 PM                                                                                                                    
SENATOR  WIELECHOWSKI   moved  to   rescind  action   in  adopting                                                              
Amendment [5] (A.14).                                                                                                           
                                                                                                                                
2:57:03 PM                                                                                                                    
CO-CHAIR GIESSEL  found no  objection and  the action  in adopting                                                              
Amendment [5] (A.14) was rescinded.                                                                                             
                                                                                                                                
[SENATOR WIELECHOWSKI withdrew Amendment 5 (A.14).]                                                                             
                                                                                                                                
2:57:29 PM                                                                                                                    
CO-CHAIR  GIESSEL  stated,  in   summary,  the  committee  adopted                                                              
Amendment [3] (A.7), Amendment [6] (A.15), and Amendment [8]                                                                    
(A. 17).                                                                                                                        
                                                                                                                                
2:57:58 PM                                                                                                                    
CO-CHAIR GIESSEL solicited the will of the committee.                                                                           
                                                                                                                                
2:58:15 PM                                                                                                                    
SENATOR  WIELECHOWSKI  moved to  report  SB  194, work  order  33-                                                              
GS2381\A,   as    amended,   from   committee    with   individual                                                              
recommendations  and   attached  fiscal  note(s).  He   said  that                                                              
Legislative  Legal has  the authority  to make  any technical  and                                                              
conforming changes.                                                                                                             
                                                                                                                                
2:58:32 PM                                                                                                                    
CO-CHAIR  GIESSEL  found  no  objection   and  CSSB  194(RES)  was                                                              
reported from committee.                                                                                                        

Document Name Date/Time Subjects
SB 194 GaffneyCline Modeling 5.8.24.pdf SRES 5/9/2024 2:00:00 PM
SB 194
SB 194 DNR Modeling 5.8.24.pdf SRES 5/8/2024 3:30:00 PM
SRES 5/9/2024 2:00:00 PM
SB 194
SB 194 GaffneyCline Modeling 5.9.24.pdf SRES 5/9/2024 2:00:00 PM
SB 194
SB 194 Amendment #A.1.pdf SRES 5/6/2024 3:30:00 PM
SRES 5/9/2024 2:00:00 PM
SB 194
SB 194 Amendment #A.2.pdf SRES 5/6/2024 3:30:00 PM
SRES 5/8/2024 3:30:00 PM
SRES 5/9/2024 2:00:00 PM
SB 194
SB 194 Amendment #A.7.pdf SRES 5/6/2024 3:30:00 PM
SRES 5/8/2024 3:30:00 PM
SRES 5/9/2024 2:00:00 PM
SB 194
SB 194 Amendment #A.10.pdf SRES 5/6/2024 3:30:00 PM
SRES 5/8/2024 3:30:00 PM
SRES 5/9/2024 2:00:00 PM
SB 194
SB 194 Amendment #A.15.pdf SRES 5/6/2024 3:30:00 PM
SRES 5/9/2024 2:00:00 PM
SB 194
SB 194 Amendment #A.14.pdf SRES 5/6/2024 3:30:00 PM
SRES 5/9/2024 2:00:00 PM
SB 194
SB 194 Amendment #A.16.pdf SRES 5/6/2024 3:30:00 PM
SRES 5/8/2024 3:30:00 PM
SRES 5/9/2024 2:00:00 PM
SB 194
SB 194 Amendment #A.17.pdf SRES 5/6/2024 3:30:00 PM
SRES 5/8/2024 3:30:00 PM
SRES 5/9/2024 2:00:00 PM
SB 194