Legislature(2019 - 2020)BELTZ 105 (TSBldg)
01/29/2019 01:30 PM Senate LABOR & COMMERCE
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| Audio | Topic |
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| Start | |
| Presentation: Department of Labor and Workforce Development, Alaska Job Forecast and Outlook | |
| Adjourn |
* first hearing in first committee of referral
+ teleconferenced
= bill was previously heard/scheduled
+ teleconferenced
= bill was previously heard/scheduled
ALASKA STATE LEGISLATURE
SENATE LABOR AND COMMERCE STANDING COMMITTEE
January 29, 2019
1:31 p.m.
MEMBERS PRESENT
Senator Lora Reinbold, Chair
Senator Mia Costello, Vice Chair
Senator Click Bishop
Senator Chris Birch
Senator Elvi Gray-Jackson
MEMBERS ABSENT
All members present
COMMITTEE CALENDAR
PRESENTATION: Department of Labor and Workforce Development,
2019 Alaska Job Forecast and Outlook
- HEARD
PREVIOUS COMMITTEE ACTION
No previous action to record
WITNESS REGISTER
TAMIKA LEDBETTER, Commissioner Designee
Department of Labor and Workforce Development
Anchorage, Alaska
POSITION STATEMENT: Introduced DOLWD presenters of the 2019
Alaska Job Forecast & Outlook presentation.
DAN ROBINSON, Chief
Labor Research & Analysis
Department of Labor and Workforce Development
Juneau, Alaska
POSITION STATEMENT: Participated in the 2019 Alaska Job Forecast
& Outlook presentation.
PALOMA HARBOUR, Director
Administrative Services Division
Department of Labor and Workforce Development
Juneau, Alaska
POSITION STATEMENT: Participated in the 2019 Alaska Job Forecast
& Outlook presentation.
ACTION NARRATIVE
1:31:20 PM
CHAIR LORA REINBOLD called the Senate Labor and Commerce
Standing Committee meeting to order at 1:31 p.m. Present at the
call to order were Senators Costello, Birch, Bishop and Chair
Reinbold. Senator Gray-Jackson arrived as the meeting was in
progress.
Presentation: Department of Labor and Workforce Development,
Alaska Job Forecast and Outlook
^Presentation: Department of Labor and Workforce Development,
Alaska Job Forecast and Outlook
1:32:11 PM
CHAIR REINBOLD announced that the only order of business would
be a presentation on the 2019 Alaska Job Forecast and Outlook by
the Department of Labor & Workforce Development.
She welcomed Commissioner Designee Tamika Ledbetter to testify.
1:32:39 PM
SENATOR GRAY-JACKSON joined the meeting.
1:32:47 PM
TAMIKA LEDBETTER, Commissioner Designee, Department of Labor and
Workforce Development (DOLWD), introduced DOLWD's staff, Dan
Robinson, Chief, Labor Research & Analysis and Paloma Harbour,
Director, Administrative Services Division. Commissioner
Designee Ledbetter indicated she would need to leave the meeting
shortly.
1:33:36 PM
DAN ROBINSON, Chief, Research & Analysis, Department of Labor
and Workforce Development, began the presentation by informing
members that the main function of the Research & Analysis
section is to produce statistics in conjunction with the federal
government. He emphasized that his non-partisan group's value is
to provide an understanding of the data, including drivers of
what has been happening.
1:35:17 PM
MR. ROBINSON turned to slides 1-2, titled "Three Things to Know
about Alaska's Economy Heading into 2019." He stated that since
late 2015 the state has been losing jobs and has been in an
economic downturn.
1:36:23 PM
MR. ROBINSON reviewed slide 3, titled "After 3+ years of losses,
modest growth forecasted in 2019," and briefly discussed the bar
graphs that highlight Alaska Employment Growth 2007-19. The
figures represent an average monthly job count over the total
year. In 2007, the state added one percent or 3,000 jobs to the
320,000 total jobs in Alaska. Although the U.S. "great
recession" in 2009 did not affect Alaska much, Alaska's economy
is currently struggling a bit, he said. He reported that in
2013-15 Alaska experienced weak growth and during 2016-18 the
state suffered deep losses when oil prices plunged to $28 per
barrel. These losses diminished in 2017 and 2018 and the 2019
forecast is for a 0.4 percent growth. In response to Chair
Reinbold, he agreed one percent equaled about 3,100 jobs.
1:38:59 PM
MR. ROBINSON turned to slide 4, titled "Assessing the damage,"
and said that in terms of the timing of losses, the state was
below employment levels in October 2015, but by December had
piled up 39 consecutives months of job losses, with a cumulative
total loss of 12,700 jobs since 2015, or 3.7 percent of the pre-
recession total. He pointed out this does not come close to the
job losses Alaska suffered in the 1980s with job losses of
21,000 or 9 percent. He commented that job losses were nearly
twice as bad in the 80s.
1:40:30 PM
MR. ROBINSON turned to slide 5, titled "Biggest losses in oil,
professional and business. serv., state government and
construction," noting the losses by industry jobs. Between 2015-
18, high-wage oil and gas industry dropped by nearly 5,000. In
2015, the oil and gas industry paid out about $2.3 billion in
wages but by 2017, oil and gas wages dropped to $1.3 billion.
Meanwhile professional and business services, which includes
professional engineers and geologists, were adversely affected
not only by a downturn in oil and gas, but by dramatically
reduced state capital budgets. State government lost 2,300 of
its 23,000 jobs and construction followed with 2,100 lost jobs.
He indicated some sectors experienced job growth, such as health
care, hospitality and tourism, and local government. Between
2015-2018, the health care industry added 4,000 jobs. He
reported that the health care industry has been a long-standing
growth industry in Alaska, adding more than 10,000 jobs in the
last decade. In addition, the leisure and hospitality sector,
including restaurants, bars and hotels, has had positive job
growth and the tourism industry looks positive for the next few
years, he said.
1:43:28 PM
MR. ROBINSON turned to slide 6, titled "Less health care growth
forecasted ? but we've thought that before," and cautioned that
even though it seems like the health care growth is ending, that
it declined in 2014 and then rose between 2015-17. He
acknowledged that the 2016 Medicaid expansion has had an impact.
He predicted mild growth of 1.3 percent in 2019.
1:44:27 PM
CHAIR REINBOLD asked how specific figures related to the
percentages.
MR. ROBINSON clarified that the graph on slide 6 provides the
percentage of change in the number of jobs from year to year. In
2009, for example, a five percent increase of the 30,000 total
health care jobs equals 1,500 jobs, he said.
CHAIR REINBOLD suggested that one percent might relate to
different figures on different slides in his presentation.
MR. ROBINSON agreed that the percentage of change relates to
specific changes in the overall base. He said he reports either
numbers or percentages and sometimes it is difficult to know
which will be more helpful to report. He offered to provide data
in a different format if the committee so desired. In further
clarification, he said Ms. Harbor explains that the 1.3 percent
projection for 2019 translates to 500 additional jobs.
1:46:44 PM
MR. ROBINSON turned to slide 7, titled "Job gains/losses have
varied throughout the state," stating that some areas of the
state have done better than others. He reviewed statistics in
employment changes between 2015-18 by location. He noted that
plenty of North Slope workers live in the Mat-Su, Kenai, or
Fairbanks. The high-wage jobs that are lost affect the area
where workers live. During 2015-2018, the Matanuska-Susitna
Borough (Mat-Su Borough) had job gains of 3.4 percent whereas
some areas had job losses, including reductions of 3.9 percent
in Anchorage, 2.5 percent in Juneau and 2 percent losses in
Fairbanks. He said the increases in the Yukon-Koyukuk is not due
to [private sector] wage and salary jobs but increases in local
government. Of the 700 increased jobs in Mat-Su, 450 were health
care jobs, 100 related to construction, and some were local
government jobs, he said.
1:48:33 PM
CHAIR REINBOLD asked him highlight Bristol Bay and the North
Slope.
MR. ROBINSON replied than any area dependent upon fisheries
tends to swing. He suggested that in Bristol Bay, either 2015
was weak and 2018 was an especially strong year, or the timing
of the fisheries changed. This does not mean that the area
experienced economic growth but merely reflects that fisheries
fluctuate from year-to-year, and over time are stable. He
explained that slide 7 illustrates that during 2015-2018 the
state experienced different levels of distress by location.
However, he did not delve deeply into the reasons for the
specific fluctuations. He emphasized that no area of the state
escaped economic effects.
1:50:13 PM
CHAIR REINBOLD asked for further clarification on the 26.1
percent reduction of jobs on the North Slope.
MR. ROBINSON answered that this slide shows a percentage of
change in Bristol Bay, the Yukon-Koyukuk and the North Slope. In
further response to Chair Reinbold, he agreed that the North
Slope had significant job losses of nearly $1 billion.
1:51:56 PM
MR. ROBINSON turned to slide 8, titled "The details of our 2019
forecast." The forecasts in 2019 for several industries is
projected to grow, including actual growth during 2017-2018 in
the construction and oil and gas industries.
He turned to slide 9, titled "Fairbanks will be a bright spot,"
and highlighted one clear positive in 2019 is Fairbanks. The
biggest contributing factor will be the arrival of [two F-35
Lightning II fighter jet squadrons] with an anticipated $500
million in construction spending, 900 new off-base housing
units, and 3,000 military personnel [at Eielson Air Force Base].
He said there will also be some additional activity at Clear Air
Station and Fort Greely.
1:53:55 PM
MR. ROBINSON turned to slide 10, titled "for much more detail
(including Anchorage and Southeast forecasts)," and invited
members to refer to the Alaska Economic Trends. He turned to
slide 11, titled "Second ?," which stated that Alaska has been
losing jobs since late 2015 and more people have left Alaska
than have moved here for six straight years. He stated that this
has never happened before. He turned to slide 12, titled "Net
migration losses of 35,000+," and pointed out from 2013-2018 the
state has had 35,000 more people leaving the state than
relocating to Alaska. He reviewed the slide that showed fewer
people leaving Alaska in 2018 than in 2013, but what has
resulted in net migration losses is that fewer people are moving
to Alaska. For example, in 2018, 38,630 people moved to Alaska
as compared to 50,626 moving to Alaska in 2013.
MR. ROBINSON turned to slide 13, titled "The long view of Alaska
migration flows," which showed the population change for Alaska
1947 to 2018. He stated that the state's population has been
stable during a period of job loss, which is one reason the
housing market has held up as well as it has. He referred to the
graphics on the slide, noting that the blue line shows the
natural increase over time. He said this slide shows the
migration trends in and out of the state, including the effect
of military, pipeline construction, and base closures. He
pointed out that the chart shows the six years of Alaska's
recession and gives the numbers context, noting that the
population losses are not insignificant ones.
1:58:16 PM
PALOMA HARBOUR, Director, Administrative Services Division,
Department of Labor and Workforce, said there is an impact to
Alaska's population based on how Alaska is performing in
comparison to the rest of the U.S. Currently, the national
economy is healthier than Alaska's economy and Alaska is not
attracting people. During the U.S. recession it was just the
opposite and more people moved to Alaska.
1:59:11 PM
MR. ROBINSON said the DOLWD has found people move for a variety
of reasons, but the main reason people move is for jobs. For
example, out migration was low in 2010. People who reside in
Alaska tend to look for jobs in Alaska, she said. Currently,
people in the Lower 48 who have always wanted to live in Alaska
can research Alaska's [sluggish] economy and based on their
findings be less likely to move to Alaska. The relationship
between Alaska's job market and the U.S. job market is often
similar; however, plenty of times Alaska's economy has been
strong and the U.S. economy has been weak or vice versa.
2:00:25 PM
MR. ROBINSON turned to slide 14, titled "Migration's a bigger
factor here than in other states," stating that this slide
depicts that migration is a factor in Alaska more so than in
other states. This slide covers a 26-year period and shows that
Alaska has had a larger gross migration flow than any other
state. Michigan, Ohio, and California fall below 4 percent
migration flow, but Alaska leads at 12 percent, so migration
affects Alaska more, he said. He related some reasons Alaska
attracts people, but that Alaska's inclement weather can repel
some people.
MR. ROBINSON turned to slides 15-18, related to net migration,
beginning with "What age groups find AK most attractive?" Alaska
has typically sent more college age people to the Lower 48 to
school than it attracts, which has been a pattern. He reviewed
the net migration by age and logical reasons for it, noting that
the 15-19 age group net migration is consistently negative, and
that seniors often tire of the weather and retire outside
Alaska. Early 20-year-olds are attracted to hiking, fishing,
hunting and adventure that Alaska offers. He turned to slide 18,
titled "There's a connection here," noting that when families
move it affects the parent's age group and the youth's age
group. He related reasons to leave Alaska include lifestyle, the
quality of Alaska's schools and crime.
2:04:33 PM
SENATOR COSTELLO asked for the agency's definition of jobs and
if he considered fulltime jobs, part-time and seasonal jobs.
MR. ROBINSON answered that he defined a job as one that lasts
for a full year and includes fulltime and part-time jobs.
2:05:21 PM
MS. PALOMA clarified that the DOLWD data defines a job as any
job that earns salary and wages covered by unemployment, but the
definition does not include self-employment or the military. The
figures are averaged over 12 months, she said.
MR. ROBINSON clarified that a tourism or fishing job that lasts
3-4 months shows up in the data as one-fourth of an annualized
job.
2:06:17 PM
SENATOR COSTELLO asked whether factors other than jobs affect
migration, for example, crime or earthquake damage. She asked
how the department determines the reason people leave Alaska and
if it conducts exit interviews.
MR. ROBINSON said the United Van Lines has conducted studies for
over forty years, although its survey did not include Alaska or
Hawaii. The study categorized reasons people move ranked in
order of jobs, retirement, and lifestyle, which includes crime
and education, family, and health. The department does not know
for certain why people move to or from Alaska, but the agency
does look for patterns.
2:08:11 PM
MS. PALOMA suggested that the age range may provide a better
indicator.
MR. ROBINSON agreed.
2:08:50 PM
SENATOR COSTELLO asked him to explain the comment that the aging
population is the largest growth when he mentioned many seniors
leave Alaska.
MR. ROBINSON said the senior population tend to be baby boomers
who came to Alaska in the 70s and 80s for high wages and
pipeline jobs. He said many of them are "aging in place" and
these seniors staying in Alaska represent the larger determining
factor for the age group.
SENATOR COSTELLO, referred to the nursing shortage, and asked
him to predict health care jobs.
MR. ROBINSON agreed that health care will continue to lead the
job growth, noting home health aides are projected to grow
faster than other occupations.
2:10:48 PM
SENATOR BISHOP pointed out that the Alaska Workforce Investment
Board provides information to the department to analyze.
MR. ROBINSON said that plenty of foundational information and
data support the DOLWD's forecast. He said the department can
provide concrete information on how many jobs are in Alaska and
how much Alaska employers paid out in wages, but it cannot
definitively identify the reasons people stay in the state.
MS. PALOMA said the agency performs a 10-year projection by
industry and occupation in its research and analysis section,
which considers the state's aging population and how that
affects health care employment. She referred to the October 2018
Trends for more details.
2:12:34 PM
MR. ROBINSON turned to slide 20, titled "Last three years of job
growth by state," and said that Alaska has lost more jobs as a
percentage of its total than any other state. He reviewed other
states that are close to Alaska's statistics, including other
oil states such as North Dakota and Wyoming.
2:13:29 PM
MR. ROBINSON turned to slides 21-24, titled "There's more going
on than oil," that indicates Alaska's total employment gains and
losses during 2015-18. He highlighted the recession in 2015 and
noted that in 2016 Alaska was still losing jobs. He compared
those statistics to North Dakota [slide 22], whose six percent
of losses were significantly greater than Alaska's, but that
state has seen growth in 2018, which he thought might be due to
agriculture or other factors.
2:14:44 PM
SENATOR COSTELLO, referred to slide 20, and said she was more
interested in the states that are doing well. She asked why
Nevada, Utah, or Idaho have such a high percentage of job growth
and if he could talk about the effects technology or permitting
has on growth.
MR. ROBINSON said he did not completely understand the trends,
but some positive patterns exist for inter-mountain states,
including Utah, Idaho, and Colorado, which is likely due to
technology and quality of life. Other states were affected by
the "Great Recession," including Nevada, Florida, and Arizona,
but these states have had a robust rebound. He agreed that
studying "what is working" is smart but he also recognized that
business cycles happen, and other factors may also affect the
economy.
2:17:24 PM
MR. ROBINSON turned to slide 23, titled "There's more going on
than oil," and provided a broad overview of Wyoming's economy.
He said that Wyoming lost a higher percentage of its jobs than
Alaska did, but Wyoming's recession is now over, and its economy
has been growing at 2.5 percent. Wyoming has fewer people and
less oil production than Alaska, while Oklahoma, with 2.5
million people, had a more diverse economy and its economy has
been growing since early 2017.
2:18:41 PM
SENATOR COSTELLO asked if there was any truth to the rumor in
the Lower 48 that Alaska lags in economic trends.
MR. ROBINSON replied that is not true. In early the 80s Alaska's
economy was booming but the U.S. was in a deep recession whereas
in the late 80s, the trend reversed. He said the best response
is to understand different drivers exist and oil prices are
relevant. Alaska struggles when oil prices are low, but it does
well when oil prices are high, which is the opposite for states
in the Lower 48.
2:20:49 PM
MR. ROBINSON turned to slide 25, titled "A study of state-level
recessions" and to pie chart that showed an average for all
states from 1961-2016, titled "How Long Job Loss Lasted," He
reviewed the percentages and duration of job losses, noting that
17 percent of the time the duration was less than a year, 60
percent of the time the duration was 1-2 years, and 7 percent of
the time the recession lasted 3-4 years. He said Alaska is
currently experiencing a recession that in 93 percent of the
time would have been over. He stated that recessions rarely last
more than 4 years.
2:22:17 PM
MR. ROBINSON turned to slide 27, titled "A study of state-level
recessions." He said that this chart shows that economies
historically tend to grow as measured by job growth. Almost 90
percent of the time as a state Alaska has been growing. He
briefly mentioned growth in other states as a comparison. He
said typically some shock will happen, the economy will absorb
the shock, and economic growth resumes.
2:23:35 PM
MR. ROBINSON turned to slides 28-31, titled "So why is our
recession lingering?" He reviewed the three reasons as listed on
slide 31, which read as follows [original punctuation provided]:
• Uncertainty related to foundational questions about
the amount of state government we're going to have and
how we're going to pay for it.
• Economic impact of the measures already taken.
• Additional costs that appear likely in our near
future.
2:25:50 PM
SENATOR COSTELLO asked him to walk the committee through the
$1.6 billion in state budget cuts assuming it would all go
towards dividends.
MR. ROBINSON answered that he was not the best person to answer
the question. He said the best data he has seen on that topic
was done by the [University of Alaska (UAA) Institute of Social
and Economic Research (ISER)] a few years ago to show the short-
term economic impacts of the various options, including
uncertainty ranges and the effect on peoples' behavior for
decisions related to taxes, cutting the budget, or changing the
permanent fund. The link can be found at:
https://iseralaska.org/static/legacy_publication_links/2016_03_3
0-ShortrunEconomicImpactsOfAlaskaFiscalOptions.pdf.
SENATOR COSTELLO said an economist came before the committee
last legislature and shared those questions, but she thought
that was a different environment and at the time the committee
was weighing options. Currently, the state is considering a $1.6
billion reduction. She suggested that perhaps Mr. Robinson could
return once the governor's budget is released to help explore
options.
2:27:31 PM
MR. ROBINSON responded that he did not think he would be the
right person to do so. He related that there was not a talk of a
$1.6 billion cut at the time the DOLWD did its forecast because
it would have affected the figures and growth. He suggested that
the basic question would be to ask what happens with the $1.6
billion and if the cuts are to be phased in. He said if the
legislature were to cut $1.6 billion from the budget that the
state would not experience any growth in 2019.
2:28:19 PM
MS. PALOMA indicated that the department has some data it can
share to help inform economic analyses, but she serves on groups
that tend to do more of the scenario-driven analysis.
MR. ROBINSON acknowledged that some of the models are
complicated, but it is important to keep in mind that models are
simplifications. He agreed the proposed $1.6 billion budget cuts
would affect the 10-year forecast, but the issues are
complicated. He characterized it as sophisticated modeling,
noting that it shows the effect of taxes on incentives. He
acknowledged that the permanent fund is unique to Alaska.
2:29:47 PM
MS. PALOMA said that obviously a state budget cut would affect
the state employment projection, but what has been articulated
in the past is that every option has an economic impact,
including implementing taxes or adding more funding to permanent
fund dividends (PFDs). Whatever option the legislature or
administration moves forward will have an impact and it will not
be easy to predict the outcomes.
2:30:53 PM
SENATOR BISHOP referred to slide 3, and said between 2007-15,
not only were oil prices good, but the state enjoyed robust
capital budgets and deferred maintenance. He said it takes 10
years in Alaska but only 60 days in North Dakota from inception
to oil well production. He further stated that North Dakota has
oil wells on private land and does not have stringent
environmental policies to follow, noting the policies mean the
wells are done and done right. It means that North Dakota can
take advantage of a spike in oil prices and ramp up faster.
MR. ROBINSON agreed it was a good point.
2:32:54 PM
SENATOR BISHOP added a footnote. The North Slope had some
lateral transfers within the oil industry. Alaska used to be
known as the best place to work since it had a large wage
package but that is no longer true plus energy costs and other
factors enter the equation.
MR. ROBINSON agreed the wages in 80s were high. He said one of
the reasons he is bringing up net migration is that it will
affect perception for a long time. He recalled when lived in NYC
that Central Park was safe, but he was stuck in his childhood
remembrance of it being a crime-ridden and unsafe place.
2:34:47 PM
CHAIR REINBOLD recalled he mentioned 23,000 state jobs and asked
whether that included the university system and state
corporations.
MR. ROBINSON answered yes.
CHAIR REINBOLD noted that the state operating budget, the
supplemental budget and the Mental Health Trust budget totals
about $12 billion. She pointed out that the DHSS budget [to
serve] 267,000 people is roughly $2.3 billion, which is
ultimately paid for by the private sector through municipal,
state, and federal taxes. She asked what type of economic
calamity will happen if the government does not cut $1.6 billion
from the state budget.
MR. ROBINSON responded that she raised a key question. He said
recessions linger when states are going through something that
will be permanent and provided some examples. He cautioned that
any substantial funding cut from the state's operating budget
will likely be gone for good. As an economist, he hoped the
state would emerge from this downturn with a whole lot more
stability going forward. If not, he predicted that the state
would pay for some of the uncertainty-related costs.
2:37:06 PM
CHAIR REINBOLD offered her belief that crime is out of control
in Alaska and costs Alaskans hundreds of millions of dollars.
She has seen people post on social network sites that "they're
outta here." She suggested people are less likely to come to
Alaska if it is considered the most dangerous state per capita
in the nation. She offered her belief that military upsizing and
downsizing is significant, noting that in her district about
1,000 military members move in or out [each year]. She recalled
research that extrapolated that each oil and gas job would
contribute an equivalent of eight teacher salaries.
MR. ROBINSON said he also has seen those studies. He
acknowledged that people need to understand what brings money
into the state. He related that in conversations about health
care growth he often contrasts a new hospital as opposed to a
new mine or a new military installation. A new military
installation brings new money into the state. A hospital helps
Alaska's population to be healthier and provides services that
Alaskans otherwise would need to travel to Seattle to receive.
He referred to it as import substitution. He concurred that it
was important to keep an eye on the goods and services Alaska
sells to the national and international economies, including
oil, minerals, seafood products, tourism, and military capacity.
He stated that part of the reason Alaska has the big migration
flows is because Alaska has a disproportionately large military
that comes and goes more frequently.
CHAIR REINBOLD said the military represents only about one
percent of the U.S. population so it did not seem to be
significant.
2:39:38 PM
SENATOR BISHOP asked whether it would be safe to say that global
geopolitical actions are deterring Alaska growth, such as trade
sanctions with Russia on Alaska seafood, the tariffs on China's
goods.
MR. ROBINSON said those types of things create uncertainty,
including the government shutdown, and businesses do not like
uncertainty so introducing uncertainty adds cost and whether
those costs are worth it is a policy question. He reiterated
that economically speaking uncertainty brings costs.
2:40:54 PM
CHAIR REINBOLD discussed upcoming committee announcements.
2:41:16 PM
There being no further business to come before the committee,
Chair Reinbold adjourned the Senate Labor & Commerce Standing
Committee meeting at 2:41 p.m.
| Document Name | Date/Time | Subjects |
|---|---|---|
| DOLWD Presentation - Three Key Things to Know About Alaska's Economy in 2019 - Senate Labor & Commerce - January 29, 2019.pptx |
SL&C 1/29/2019 1:30:00 PM |