Legislature(2019 - 2020)Anch LIO Lg Conf Rm

10/07/2019 10:00 AM BICAMERAL PERMANENT FUND WORKING GROUP

Note: the audio and video recordings are distinct records and are obtained from different sources. As such there may be key differences between the two. The audio recordings are captured by our records offices as the official record of the meeting and will have more accurate timestamps. Use the icons to switch between them.

Download Mp3. <- Right click and save file as
Download Video part 1. <- Right click and save file as
Download Video part 2. <- Right click and save file as

Audio Topic
09:59:52 AM Start
10:00:47 AM Presentation: Models and Scenarios on the Permanent Fund Earnings and the Budget
11:40:10 AM Adjourn
* first hearing in first committee of referral
+ teleconferenced
= bill was previously heard/scheduled
+ Models and scenarios on permanent fund earnings TELECONFERENCED
and the budget
**Streamed live on AKL.tv**
                    ALASKA STATE LEGISLATURE                                                                                  
             BICAMERAL PERMANENT FUND WORKING GROUP                                                                           
                         ANCHORAGE LIO                                                                                        
                        October 7, 2019                                                                                         
                           9:59 a.m.                                                                                            
                                                                                                                                
                                                                                                                                
MEMBERS PRESENT                                                                                                               
                                                                                                                                
Representative Jennifer Johnston, Co-Chair                                                                                      
Representative Jonathan Kreiss-Tomkins                                                                                          
Representative Kelly Merrick                                                                                                    
Representative Adam Wool                                                                                                        
                                                                                                                                
Senator Click Bishop, Co-Chair                                                                                                  
Senator Shelley Hughes                                                                                                          
Senator Bert Stedman                                                                                                            
                                                                                                                                
MEMBERS ABSENT                                                                                                                
                                                                                                                                
Senator Donald Olson                                                                                                            
                                                                                                                                
OTHER LEGISLATORS PRESENT                                                                                                     
                                                                                                                                
Representative Bryce Edgmon                                                                                                     
Representative Andy Josephson                                                                                                   
Representative Chuck Kopp                                                                                                       
Representative Laddie Shaw                                                                                                      
                                                                                                                                
Senator Cathy Giessel                                                                                                           
Senator David Wilson                                                                                                            
                                                                                                                                
COMMITTEE CALENDAR                                                                                                            
                                                                                                                                
PRESENTATION: MODELS AND SCENARIOS ON PERMANENT FUND EARNINGS                                                                   
AND THE BUDGET                                                                                                                  
                                                                                                                                
     - HEARD                                                                                                                    
                                                                                                                                
PREVIOUS COMMITTEE ACTION                                                                                                     
                                                                                                                                
No previous action to record                                                                                                    
                                                                                                                                
WITNESS REGISTER                                                                                                              
                                                                                                                                
ALEXI PAINTER, Fiscal Analyst                                                                                                   
Legislative Finance Division                                                                                                    
Alaska State Legislature                                                                                                        
Juneau, Alaska                                                                                                                  
POSITION  STATEMENT:   Presented  fiscal  models   and  scenarios                                                             
related to the Permanent Fund earnings and the budget.                                                                          
                                                                                                                                
                                                                                                                                
ACTION NARRATIVE                                                                                                              
                                                                                                                                
                                                                                                                                
9:59:52 AM                                                                                                                    
CO-CHAIR  CLICK  BISHOP  called   the  Bicameral  Permanent  Fund                                                             
Working Group (PFG) meeting to order  at 9:59 a.m. Present at the                                                               
call  to order  was  Senator Stedman,  and  Co-Chair Bishop;  and                                                               
Representatives Merrick, Wool, and Co-Chair Johnstone.                                                                          
                                                                                                                                
He   recognized   that   Senators   Giessel   and   Wilson,   and                                                               
Representative Kopp were in attendance.                                                                                         
                                                                                                                                
10:00:47 AM                                                                                                                   
At ease.                                                                                                                        
                                                                                                                                
^Presentation:  Models  and  Scenarios   on  the  Permanent  Fund                                                               
Earnings and the Budget                                                                                                         
    Presentation: Models and Scenarios on the Permanent Fund                                                                
                    Earnings and the Budget                                                                                 
                                                                                                                                
10:09:32 AM                                                                                                                   
CO-CHAIR  BISHOP reconvened  the meeting  and noted  that Senator                                                               
Hughes had  arrived. He recognized that  Representative Josephson                                                               
was in attendance.                                                                                                              
                                                                                                                                
He  stated  that  the  purpose  of  the  meeting  is  to  hear  a                                                               
presentation  from   Alexi  Painter,   Fiscal  Analyst   for  the                                                               
Legislative  Finance  Division.  The   co-chairs  asked  all  PFG                                                               
members to  request various models  for analysis  and discussion.                                                               
Based  upon  input  from the  committee  members,  six  different                                                               
scenarios will be addressed during the presentation.                                                                            
                                                                                                                                
10:10:35 AM                                                                                                                   
ALEXI  PAINTER,  Fiscal  Analyst, Legislative  Finance  Division,                                                               
Alaska  State  Legislature,  Juneau, Alaska,  explained  that  he                                                               
would present the scenarios that  members of the PFG requested in                                                               
advance of  this meeting. He  said he  was also willing  to model                                                               
additional scenarios as they are requested during the meeting.                                                                  
                                                                                                                                
He  clarified  that the  Legislative  Finance  Division does  not                                                               
endorse any  particular model. Any additional  scenarios that are                                                               
run  during  the  meeting  will  be posted  to  BASIS  after  the                                                               
meeting.                                                                                                                        
                                                                                                                                
10:11:33 AM                                                                                                                   
MR. PAINTER paraphrased the following  glossary of key terms that                                                               
he would use during the presentation:                                                                                           
                                                                                                                                
       ERA: Earnings Reserve Account  the portion of the                                                                      
     Permanent Fund that is available for appropriation.                                                                        
                                                                                                                                
He  noted that  the principal  is constitutionally  protected and                                                               
cannot be spent. Any talk  about spending from the Permanent Fund                                                               
refers to spending from the ERA.                                                                                                
                                                                                                                                
     POMV: Percent of Market Value. SB 26 limits draws from                                                                   
     the ERA to 5.25% (dropping to 5% in FY22) of the five-                                                                     
     year average market value of the total Permanent Fund.                                                                     
                                                                                                                                
He  explained that  the draw  in FY2020  (which is  based on  the                                                               
five-year average  ending in  FY2018) is  about $2.9  billion. He                                                               
noted the  lag and  the fact  that the  Permanent Fund  has grown                                                               
since FY2018  which results  in the actual  draw being  less than                                                               
5.25 percent.                                                                                                                   
                                                                                                                                
Statutory  Net Income:  Realized earnings  of the  Permanent Fund                                                             
less expenses. The  current PFD formula in statute is  50% of 21%                                                               
of the earnings over the previous five years.                                                                                   
                                                                                                                                
He noted  that the  lag is  different than the  POMV draw  so the                                                               
FY2020  dividend  formula was  calculated  on  the previous  five                                                               
years ending  in FY2019 whereas  the POMV  draw was based  on the                                                               
previous five years ending in FY2018.                                                                                           
                                                                                                                                
UGF:  Unrestricted   General  Fund.  State  funds   that  can  be                                                             
appropriated for any purpose with no restrictions.                                                                              
                                                                                                                                
MR. PAINTER  explained that  the UGF  is the  only fund  that can                                                               
have deficits.  The other  funds are  important in  the budgeting                                                               
process but cannot be overdrawn.  By definition, the expenditures                                                               
must equal the revenues so  any talk about deficits is restricted                                                               
to UGF.                                                                                                                         
                                                                                                                                
CBR/SBR: The  Constitutional Budget Reserve and  Statutory Budget                                                             
Reserve  are  the State's  two  main  savings accounts.  The  CBR                                                               
balance is about  $2.1 billion (down from $12.7  billion in FY14)                                                               
and the SBR is empty (from $5.2 billion in FY12).                                                                               
                                                                                                                                
MR. PAINTER explained that the  state constitution requires draws                                                               
from the  CBR to be  repaid. Because  of past draws,  the current                                                               
CBR liability is about $10 billion.                                                                                             
                                                                                                                                
10:14:54 AM                                                                                                                   
MR.  PAINTER reviewed  the following  "Base  Assumptions for  All                                                               
Scenarios" from slide 4:                                                                                                        
                                                                                                                                
   • FY20 Budget as Enacted                                                                                                   
        - Agency operations and capital budget growing with                                                                     
          inflation                                                                                                             
        - Statewide items following established projections                                                                     
                                                                                                                                
He said the  statewide items such as retirement  and debt service                                                               
follow the  established projections  from the  relevant Executive                                                               
Branch agencies.  The Alaska Retirement Management  Board (ARMB),                                                               
for example.                                                                                                                    
                                                                                                                                
   • $50 million placeholder for supplemental appropriations                                                                    
                                                                                                                                
MR.  PAINTER  said  $50  million  is  the  ideal  for  unexpected                                                               
expenses,  but  it is  likely  too  low  this year  because  fire                                                               
suppression alone is likely to be $50 million.                                                                                  
                                                                                                                                
   • Department of Revenue Spring Revenue Forecast of $66 per                                                                 
     barrel oil:                                                                                                                
                                                                                                                                
MR. PAINTER said the price of a  barrel of oil right now is about                                                               
$60 and for the year the price is about $63.50 per barrel.                                                                      
                                                                                                                                
   • 7% Permanent Fund growth (current Callan projection).                                                                    
He  noted that  this  is up  from the  6.55  percent growth  that                                                               
Callan had earlier this year.                                                                                                   
                                                                                                                                
   • No inflation proofing for four years due to extra $4                                                                       
     billion transfer to the Permanent Fund in FY20                                                                             
                                                                                                                                
10:17:07 AM                                                                                                                   
REPRESENTATIVE  WOOL noted  that  he said  the  POMV revenue  for                                                               
FY2018  was $2.9  billion and  the projected  revenue is  $66 per                                                               
barrel. He asked what the total revenue is for oil.                                                                             
                                                                                                                                
MR. PAINTER  answered that  UGF petroleum  revenue is  about $1.7                                                               
billion.  That  includes  production taxes,  royalties,  property                                                               
tax,  and  corporate  income taxes  from  the  various  petroleum                                                               
sources.                                                                                                                        
                                                                                                                                
MR. PAINTER  said the inflation  proofing assumptions on  slide 4                                                               
is new  this year.  This past  year the  legislature appropriated                                                               
$9.4 billion  of additional  inflation proofing  from the  ERA to                                                               
the  corpus of  the  Permanent Fund.  The appropriation  included                                                               
intent language  that it  would serve  as inflation  proofing for                                                               
the next eight  fiscal years. He said that  is roughly equivalent                                                               
to  the  current inflation  proofing  statute  that is  about  $1                                                               
billion a year.                                                                                                                 
                                                                                                                                
He said Governor  Dunleavy vetoed the appropriation  from the ERA                                                               
to the  principal to $4  billion, but he cannot  veto legislative                                                               
intent so that left the 8 years.  Since $4 billion is quite a bit                                                               
lower  than  8  years  of  inflation  proofing,  the  Legislative                                                               
Finance  Division is  assuming that  the $4  billion is  going to                                                               
count for  4 years. He said  the division made the  assumption to                                                               
try to smooth the projection, but the assumption can be changed.                                                                
                                                                                                                                
CO-CHAIR JOHNSTON asked  what Consumer Price Index  (CPI) is used                                                               
in the modeling.                                                                                                                
                                                                                                                                
MR.  PAINTER answered  that Callan's  assumption is  2.25 percent                                                               
inflation so the transfer is  2.25 percent times the principal of                                                               
the Permanent Fund. Given the  current size of the principal, the                                                               
inflation proofing is approximately $1 billion a year.                                                                          
                                                                                                                                
10:19:39 AM                                                                                                                   
CO-CHAIR BISHOP  recognized that Representatives Edgmon  and Shaw                                                               
joined the meeting.                                                                                                             
                                                                                                                                
MR. PAINTER offered the following  explanation of the live models                                                               
for the six different scenarios on slides 5-10:                                                                                 
                                                                                                                                
   • UGF Revenue/Budget ($ millions) is located top left in each                                                                
     scenario.                                                                                                                  
        o The blue bars are unrestricted general fund revenue                                                                   
          from petroleum and nonpetroleum sources.                                                                              
             square4 Unrestricted general fund revenue.                                                                         
        o The green bars are the planned draws from the ERA.                                                                    
             square4 The POMV draw in FY2018 is the amount of the                                                               
               dividend. It was a planned draw from the ERA.                                                                    
        o The orange bars are draws from the savings accounts to                                                                
          make up the deficits in the CBR and SBR.                                                                              
        o The red bars are draws from the ERA above the POMV                                                                    
          draw.                                                                                                                 
        o The dark black line is the typical way the Legislative                                                                
          Finance Division views the budget.                                                                                    
             square4 It does not include the PFD.                                                                               
             square4 Approximately $4.5 billion, $4.4 billion in                                                                
               FY2020.                                                                                                          
       o The dotted line is the budget including the PFD.                                                                       
             square4 That is the line that the bars are trying to                                                               
               meet.                                                                                                            
                                                                                                                                
   • Budget Reserves (FY Ending Balance) is located just below                                                                  
     UGF Revenue/Budget in each scenario.                                                                                       
        o The green bar is the amount in the ERA that is                                                                        
          available for appropriation.                                                                                          
             square4 It is not a true budget reserve because it is                                                              
               paying out every year in the PMOV, but it could                                                                  
               be used as one.                                                                                                  
        o The orange bar is the CBR Balance.                                                                                    
        o SBR balance is small enough to be difficult to see and                                                                
          it goes away after FY2020. The balance at the                                                                         
         beginning of the year was about $170 million.                                                                          
                                                                                                                                
   • The blue table at the lower left has the numbers that go                                                                   
     along with the graphs. It shows:                                                                                           
        o Total amount of reserves.                                                                                             
        o Surplus or deficit for each year.                                                                                     
        o The remaining years of CBR balance.                                                                                   
        o The amount of the deficit that is filled.                                                                             
        o The amount of any unplanned draw from the ERA.                                                                        
                                                                                                                                
   • Dividend Check graph is located in the top right of each                                                                   
     scenario.                                                                                                                  
        o PFD for FY2020 was $1,606.                                                                                            
        o The status quo analysis starts with the statutes. The                                                                 
          next year the PFD will be approximately $3,074,                                                                       
          depending on earning and the number of recipients. It                                                                 
          grows and shrinks in subsequent years.                                                                                
        o The red line is the status quo.                                                                                       
        o The purple line is the current scenario.                                                                              
                                                                                                                                
10:23:18 AM                                                                                                                   
CO-CHAIR JOHNSTON asked if the scenario on the slide includes                                                                   
the draws from the ERA when the PFD amount is recalculated.                                                                     
                                                                                                                                
MR. PAINTER answered no; the scenario he was referencing is not                                                                 
in the packets. It is the division's starting point of the                                                                      
model, which is  basically a broken scenario. He said  there is a                                                               
white space  between the  budget and  revenue meaning  nothing is                                                               
filling the space. The model shows  following all the laws on the                                                               
books, which obviously  does not work. The  first assumption that                                                               
the  division  makes   for  the  baseline  is   that  any  needed                                                               
additional draws  would come from  the ERA, then  a recalculation                                                               
occurs.                                                                                                                         
                                                                                                                                
SENATOR STEDMAN  urged caution when  talking about  following all                                                               
the laws  on the books, because  there are two laws  on the books                                                               
that are in conflict. One law  is the 5.25 percent POMV draw from                                                               
the ERA  for the Permanent Fund.  The other law is  the statutory                                                               
PFD calculation  for the  dividend. Both  laws have  equal weight                                                               
and  both are  subject to  change  by the  legislature. What  the                                                               
legislature cannot change is the constitution.                                                                                  
                                                                                                                                
MR. PAINTER  agreed it was a  fair point. He clarified  that what                                                               
he meant is that the POMV  law is being followed and the dividend                                                               
is paid out of that POMV draw.                                                                                                  
                                                                                                                                
He said  depending on how  SB 26 is read,  the PFD and  POMV draw                                                               
could both be legally pulled, which  he is not sure was intended.                                                               
The default assumption is that just the POMV draw is pulled.                                                                    
                                                                                                                                
CO-CHAIR BISHOP  asked for confirmation  that the slide  was just                                                               
for illustrative purposes.                                                                                                      
                                                                                                                                
MR. PAINTER concurred; it is just  to show how the model works in                                                               
isolation, but  the scenario is  obviously not viable  because of                                                               
the white space.                                                                                                                
                                                                                                                                
He  continued  to  explain  that the  Permanent  Fund  FY  Ending                                                               
Balance graph shows  whether the Permanent Fund  value is keeping                                                               
up with inflation.                                                                                                              
                                                                                                                                
   • The red bar shows the ending balance of the Permanent Fund                                                                 
     growing with inflation.                                                                                                    
   • The stacked bar next to the red bar:                                                                                       
        o The purple portion is the principal of the Permanent                                                                  
          Fund.                                                                                                                 
        o The green portion is the ERA.                                                                                         
        o Together the stacked bar is the total value of the                                                                    
          Permanent Fund.                                                                                                       
   • Following the POMV law, the Permanent Fund will grow                                                                       
     slightly faster than inflation because the fund is                                                                         
     receiving royalty deposits every year as per the                                                                           
     constitution.                                                                                                              
   • Making additional draws to meet the budget deficit will                                                                    
     slow the fund's growth.                                                                                                    
                                                                                                                                
MR. PAINTER explained  the Payout for Dividends  and General Fund                                                               
graph, located below the Permanent Fund graph, as follows:                                                                      
                                                                                                                                
   • It shows the comparative amount of the POMV draw that is                                                                   
     going to dividends versus the General fund.                                                                                
          o red bar shows the PFD.                                                                                              
          o The green bar shows the General Fund                                                                                
          o The amount for the General Fund is higher in FY2019                                                                 
             and FY2020; however, once the division switches to                                                                 
             following the PFD statute, the amount for the PFD is                                                               
             higher after FY2020.                                                                                               
   • In this scenario the amount for the General Fund is higher                                                                 
     in FY2019 and FY2020, but the amount for the PFD is higher                                                                 
     once there is a switch to the PFD statute.                                                                                 
                                                                                                                                
10:26:06 AM                                                                                                                   
CO-CHAIR  BISHOP  announced  that  Representative  Kreiss-Tomkins                                                               
joined the committee meeting.                                                                                                   
                                                                                                                                
REPRESENTATIVE  WOOL noted  that the  Dividend Check  graph shows                                                               
dividends  for  the  last  three years  of  $1,100,  $1,600,  and                                                               
$1,600. Starting in FY2021 the  dividend goes up to the statutory                                                               
formula  which is  based on  previous  performance. He  commented                                                               
that a  lot of the  graphs are based  on paying according  to the                                                               
statutory  formula, which  hasn't happened  for a  few years.  He                                                               
asked if the graphs could be updated for the past few years.                                                                    
                                                                                                                                
MR. PAINTER  answered yes;  the division's  approach is  that the                                                               
default,  if  nothing is  done,  is  to  follow the  statute.  He                                                               
acknowledged it was a subjective choice.                                                                                        
                                                                                                                                
10:27:57 AM                                                                                                                   
SENATOR  HUGHES referenced  the conversation  about the  conflict                                                               
between  the laws  that  are on  the books  and  opined that  the                                                               
historic PFD  calculation could coexist  with the POMV  draw, but                                                               
it  would leave  less  money for  government.  She said  Governor                                                               
Dunleavy's budget at  the beginning of the  process respected the                                                               
POMV, but when he applied the  historic formula for the PFD about                                                               
65 percent went to the PFD  and 35 percent went to government. In                                                               
contrast,  Governor  Walker  also  respected the  draw,  but  the                                                               
numbers were flipped  where 35 percent went to the  people and 65                                                               
percent went to the government.                                                                                                 
                                                                                                                                
She said  she has been trying  to educate people in  her district                                                               
that following  the historic  draw will erode  the growth  of the                                                               
fund.                                                                                                                           
                                                                                                                                
SENATOR HUGHES explained that since  the PFD was put into statute                                                               
in 1982,  growth of the fund  was not eroded because  the portion                                                               
available to the government was not  used. It was going back into                                                               
the  Permanent  Fund resulting  in  a  healthy fund  with  robust                                                               
growth. She  said now  that the  state needs to  use some  of the                                                               
fund, the old PFD draw is just too much.                                                                                        
                                                                                                                                
She said  there are a lot  of people who still  want the historic                                                               
draw and  there are legislators who  want to stick with  the POMV                                                               
draw with varying amounts going  to government and to the people.                                                               
She said  a smaller amount does  make sense, but the  question is                                                               
what the  split should  be. She  offered her  belief that  a fair                                                               
split would  be 50/50 and  that the governor would  veto anything                                                               
less than  that. She  stated that  she was  willing to  stick her                                                               
neck out and support that split.                                                                                                
                                                                                                                                
10:34:29 AM                                                                                                                   
MR.  PAINTER  said  the  historic 50/50  results  in  the  entire                                                               
earnings being spent, 50 percent  of the statutory net income for                                                               
government and 50  percent for the PFD. Because  all the earnings                                                               
are being  spent, inflation  proofing would have  to come  out of                                                               
the  balance. The  value of  the ERA  would decline  as inflation                                                               
proofing  happens, so  the  value  of the  fund  does not  really                                                               
decline, but it does not keep up with inflation.                                                                                
                                                                                                                                
He said  there are a couple  of ways to handle  inflation; either                                                               
take inflation proofing out ahead  of time before calculating the                                                               
statutory net  income or have a  POMV draw, which is  designed to                                                               
build  in  inflation. The  model  does  show  that not  having  a                                                               
mechanism  for inflation  proofing, the  real value  of the  fund                                                               
would erode.                                                                                                                    
                                                                                                                                
SENATOR STEDMAN  added that a  policy without  inflation proofing                                                               
the  Permanent  Fund will  fail  because  purchasing power  going                                                               
forward will be eroded  and  increase over time, to the detriment                                                               
of future Alaskans. He opined  that at a minimum, the legislature                                                               
needs to make  sure inflation proofing happens  regardless of the                                                               
split.                                                                                                                          
                                                                                                                                
10:36:12 AM                                                                                                                   
MR. PAINTER  reviewed scenario, 1,  "50 percent of  Statutory Net                                                               
Income (Current law)" on slide 5:                                                                                               
                                                                                                                                
   • Paying the current statutory PFD out of the POMV draw                                                                      
     results in deficits being made up out of the ERA.                                                                          
   • The CBR would run out in FY2022 and draws would have to                                                                    
     come from the ERA if there are no other budget or policy                                                                   
     changes.                                                                                                                   
   • The deficit at the start would be about $1.5 billion to                                                                    
     $1.7 billion.                                                                                                              
   • The PFD would be approximately $3,000, rising to about                                                                     
     $3,500.                                                                                                                    
   • The Permanent Fund is not keeping up to inflation.                                                                         
                                                                                                                                
CO-CHAIR JOHNSTON said she was confused by scenario 1 because                                                                   
eating away at the fund with the dividend should result in                                                                      
dividends dropping.                                                                                                             
                                                                                                                                
MR. PAINTER explained that it takes time to work its way through                                                                
the fund balance because of the averaging. Towards the end the                                                                  
dividend will lose about $200 if there are no unplanned draws.                                                                  
                                                                                                                                
CO-CHAIR JOHNSTON recapped that it takes longer because of the                                                                  
five-year lookback, which is the immediate past year.                                                                           
                                                                                                                                
MR. PAINTER concurred.                                                                                                          
                                                                                                                                
10:38:20 AM                                                                                                                   
SENATOR STEDMAN asked him to discuss the "Permanent Fund FY                                                                     
Ending Balance" on the lower right in scenario 1.                                                                               
                                                                                                                                
MR. PAINTER explained as follows:                                                                                               
                                                                                                                                
   • Permanent Fund FY Ending Balance:                                                                                          
        o The red bar on the left is the current value of the                                                                   
          Permanent Fund growing with inflation.                                                                                
        o The stacked (green and purple) bar on the right is                                                                    
          what the Permanent Fund does.                                                                                         
        o A few unplanned draws or draws beyond the POMV results                                                                
          in a Permanent Fund that does not decrease at this                                                                    
          point, but it is not keeping up with inflation.                                                                       
        o In FY2028, the Permanent Fund is about $10 billion                                                                    
          below the inflation-adjusted value of the fund because                                                                
          of the unplanned draws or draws beyond the POMV                                                                       
          amount.                                                                                                               
     He said the next chart down, "Payout for Dividends and                                                                     
     General Fund" shows that the relative draws to the dividend                                                                
     and General Fund are similar. He pointed out the following                                                                 
     if the POMV statute is followed:                                                                                           
                                                                                                                                
        o Effective Percentage:                                                                                                 
             square4 The FY2020 draw is 5.25 percent, but the payout                                                            
               is actually 4.4 percent of the current value of                                                                  
               the fund because of the lag.                                                                                     
        o If there is an unplanned draw in addition to the                                                                      
          planned draw, the total draw is over 7 percent of the                                                                 
          fund.                                                                                                                 
        o A 7 percent draw is more than earnings and the fund                                                                   
          starts to decrease over time.                                                                                         
                                                                                                                                
SENATOR STEDMAN highlighted  that in a declining  market the draw                                                               
rate would  increase significantly and that  would be detrimental                                                               
to future Alaskans in perpetuity.                                                                                               
                                                                                                                                
MR. PAINTER  pointed out  that draws  from FY2015  through FY2017                                                               
exceeded  eight  percent at  one  point  because the  market  was                                                               
weaker.                                                                                                                         
                                                                                                                                
10:41:31 AM                                                                                                                   
REPRESENTATIVE WOOL  asked him to  repeat the explanation  of the                                                               
lag  and  why  the  5.25  percent POMV  draw  is  actually  [4.4]                                                               
percent.                                                                                                                        
                                                                                                                                
MR. PAINTER  explained that the POMV  draw is based on  the value                                                               
of the  Permanent Fund over a  five-year period that ends  a year                                                               
before the  actual draw is  made. It's  a form of  smoothing that                                                               
keeps the draw  from varying too much. Generally,  while the fund                                                               
is advancing the percentage will be lower.                                                                                      
                                                                                                                                
CO-CHAIR BISHOP noted  that during the discussion  of Senate Bill                                                               
26 (POMV),  he and several  other senators advocated for  a lower                                                               
draw than 5.25 percent.                                                                                                         
                                                                                                                                
10:43:00 AM                                                                                                                   
MR. PAINTER  reviewed scenario  2, "25  Percent of  Statutory Net                                                               
Income" as proposed in HB 1005:                                                                                                 
                                                                                                                                
   • Cuts the current amount of the PFD from 50 percent of the                                                                  
     average statutory net income to 25 percent of the average                                                                  
     statutory net income. Instead of $3,000, the dividend is                                                                   
     about $1,500.                                                                                                              
   • Even though deficits are smaller than scenario 1, deficits                                                                 
     of approximately $500 million a year persist through most                                                                  
     of the modeled period.                                                                                                     
   • Based on the default assumption and assuming no other                                                                      
     policy changes, unplanned ERA draws would be needed                                                                        
     starting in FY2027.                                                                                                        
   • The deficit gets a lot bigger between FY2021 and FY2022                                                                    
     because of the following:                                                                                                  
        o POMV draw decreases from 5.25 percent to 5 percent.                                                                   
        o Instead of advancing the amount by a couple hundred                                                                   
          million dollars a year, it is basically flat for those                                                                
          two years, which increases the deficit.                                                                               
   • Because the unplanned draws are much smaller, the Permanent                                                                
     Fund keeps pace with inflation.                                                                                            
                                                                                                                                
REPRESENTATIVE  KREISS-TOMKINS  asked  him  to  explain  why  the                                                               
dividends are around $1,500 in  scenario 2, but the graphs appear                                                               
to show they are in the $1,000 to $1,250 range.                                                                                 
                                                                                                                                
MR. PAINTER  clarified that  the PFD will  be between  $1,500 and                                                               
$1,800.                                                                                                                         
                                                                                                                                
10:45:40 AM                                                                                                                   
SENATOR  STEDMAN  pointed  out  that  scenario  2  would  take  a                                                               
statutory change  from 50 percent  down to 25  percent, basically                                                               
cutting  the PFD  in half.  It  leaves the  statutory net  income                                                               
calculations  in place  and avoids  the  need for  constitutional                                                               
amendments or  any significant  changes. The  scenario stabilizes                                                               
the Permanent Fund going forward  until a more permanent solution                                                               
can be worked out.                                                                                                              
                                                                                                                                
MR. PAINTER  discussed scenario 3,  "50 percent of POMV  Draw" as                                                               
proposed in SB 103:                                                                                                             
                                                                                                                                
   • Puts the PFD as half of the POMV draw.                                                                                     
   • In FY2021 dividend would be $2,350.                                                                                        
   • The deficit gap is $1 billion, lower than the $1.5 billion                                                                 
     to $1.7 billion under the current statute, but a persistent                                                                
     deficit exists.                                                                                                            
   • CBR would run out in FY2023.                                                                                               
                                                                                                                                
10:47:41 AM                                                                                                                   
SENATOR  HUGHES  asked if  the  oil  revenue projections  in  the                                                               
modeling considers the activity occurring on the North Slope.                                                                   
                                                                                                                                
MR. PAINTER  replied that  the Spring  Revenue Forecast  from DOR                                                               
includes  some of  the  increased production,  but  it assigns  a                                                               
risking factor  that assumes there is  a chance that not  all the                                                               
production will  come online so  production is  essentially flat.                                                               
He  said that  is a  big change  from a  few years  ago when  the                                                               
assumption was that production would  be declining. He added that                                                               
the forecast does not count  any revenue from the Arctic National                                                               
Wildlife  Refuge (ANWR)  lease sales  because that  is viewed  as                                                               
very uncertain and  a one-time payment. He noted  that the Spring                                                               
Revenue Forecast does not include  the impact of the Hilcorp sale                                                               
to BP.  A new revenue forecast  in December 2019 may  reflect the                                                               
North Slope changes.                                                                                                            
                                                                                                                                
CO-CHAIR  BISHOP pointed  out that  not all  the new  North Slope                                                               
prospects  are going  to  pay  a royalty  to  the state  treasury                                                               
because the  production is  not on state  land. A  production tax                                                               
would be recovered, but the collection would be at a later date.                                                                
                                                                                                                                
MR. PAINTER  agreed and pointed  out that while  added production                                                               
increases the  production tax,  the Trans-Alaska  Pipeline System                                                               
(TAPS)  tariff will  be reduced  because it  will be  spread over                                                               
more barrels of oil.                                                                                                            
                                                                                                                                
10:50:13 AM                                                                                                                   
REPRESENTATIVE WOOL  asked how a  flat or down stock  market over                                                               
10 years  will affect the models  for the POMV and  statutory net                                                               
income draws.                                                                                                                   
                                                                                                                                
MR. PAINTER  answered that  using the  worst time  period (FY2001                                                               
through FY2009) as an example, the following will occur:                                                                        
                                                                                                                                
   • The draw is roughly the same size.                                                                                         
   • Deficits from FY2001 through FY2009 were in the $900                                                                       
     million to $1 billion range, deficits in the model are $1.2                                                                
     billion.                                                                                                                   
   • There is less money to deal with the deficits because the                                                                  
     POMV is stable.                                                                                                            
   • Under the statutory approach, dividends will jump around.                                                                  
     Bad years drives the dividend down quite a bit, and it                                                                     
     spikes in good years.                                                                                                      
   • When the dividend is paid out of statutory net income, it                                                                  
     is very susceptible to market changes.                                                                                     
   • POMV draws are very stable amounts based on balances. An                                                                   
     odd situation could  occur where a temporary  decline in the                                                               
     market reduces  the deficit because  it does not  affect the                                                               
     POMV due to an additional year  of lag and the draw is based                                                               
     on the total balance, but the PFD is greatly affected.                                                                     
   • A situation could occur where the market goes up and the                                                                   
     deficit is deficit, or the market goes down and it gives a                                                                 
     smaller deficit. There is a bit of a disconnect when those                                                                 
     two things are based on a different number.                                                                                
   • The model is based on very flat and static projections that                                                                
     often will  hide the disconnect  effect, but because  of the                                                               
     different lags,  the additional  lag in  the POMV  draw, and                                                               
     because  of the  difference  in the  volatility of  earnings                                                               
     versus balances, there is sometimes a bit of a disconnect.                                                                 
                                                                                                                                
10:53:13 AM                                                                                                                   
SENATOR  HUGHES  referred  to the  UGF  Revenue/Budget  graph  in                                                               
scenario 3, "50  Percent of POMV Draw." The graph  shows red bars                                                               
that indicate  overdraws which  is not  good. However,  there are                                                               
several different  factors that  could change the  overdraws such                                                               
as how  the actual North  Slope activity  pans out, if  the state                                                               
continues  to nudge  down the  budget over  a few  years, and  if                                                               
there are  some other  revenue sources.  She emphasized  that the                                                               
models are just  projections and there are many  factors that can                                                               
unfold  between now  and  when the  overdrafts  appear if  future                                                               
years.                                                                                                                          
                                                                                                                                
10:55:00 AM                                                                                                                   
At ease.                                                                                                                        
                                                                                                                                
10:56:15 AM                                                                                                                   
CO-CHAIR BISHOP reconvened the meeting.                                                                                         
                                                                                                                                
SENATOR  STEDMAN   noted  that   the  Senate   Finance  Committee                                                               
discussed some  of the  anomalies the state  is faced  with under                                                               
the current dividend calculation. He  said the Permanent Fund has                                                               
substantial  real estate  holdings  that have  grown in  enormous                                                               
value over  the years. When liquidated,  the transaction triggers                                                               
into the PFD calculation which  artificially moves the PFD up. As                                                               
the  real   estate  holdings  get  older   and  more  profitable,                                                               
liquidation compounds  the issue whereas the  POMV calculates the                                                               
market value  at a  given day  once a year  in a  simplistic form                                                               
that provides smoothing  and gets away from the  shock issues for                                                               
a PFD calculation.  The noted anomalies are going  to distort the                                                               
PFD in  the next couple  of years  under the statutory  amount to                                                               
the upward side with forecasts of $3,500 to $4,000 dividends.                                                                   
                                                                                                                                
10:58:17 AM                                                                                                                   
REPRESENTATIVE KREISS-TOMKINS  opined that  some of  those highly                                                               
profitable assets were  not contemplated by the  people who wrote                                                               
the  PFD  formula   in  the  early  1980s.   The  Permanent  Fund                                                               
Corporation  operated under  very  conservative legal  parameters                                                               
for  investment. The  fund could  not  invest in  real estate  or                                                               
private  equity,  so  there  was  no  contemplation  of  earnings                                                               
volatility. The  volatility that  Senator Stedman pointed  out is                                                               
an  unintended  consequence  of  broadening  and  having  a  more                                                               
aggressive   investment  parameters   for   the  Permanent   Fund                                                               
Corporation.                                                                                                                    
                                                                                                                                
He  directed  attention  to  row  69,  "Unplanned  ERA  Draw"  in                                                               
scenario 3 that  shows draws of $1 billion for  FY2024 and FY2025                                                               
before  it drops.  He asked  why  the overspending  in those  two                                                               
fiscal years diminishes from that high water mark.                                                                              
                                                                                                                                
11:00:45 AM                                                                                                                   
MR.  PAINTER   answered  that  the  model   considers  oil  price                                                               
forecasts and  the forecasted  price for  the noted  fiscal years                                                               
reaches $77 per  barrel. It's a "kink point"  price that triggers                                                               
a higher production tax and increases revenue.                                                                                  
                                                                                                                                
REPRESENTATIVE  KREISS-TOMKINS  noted  that the  models  use  the                                                               
Spring Revenue Forecast  from DOR. They have  an almost arbitrary                                                               
rosiness  with a  linear increase  in oil  prices with  the "kink                                                               
point" shift in  every model. He asked if the  positive oil price                                                               
inflection will be in every model.                                                                                              
                                                                                                                                
MR. PAINTER answered yes.                                                                                                       
                                                                                                                                
11:03:17 AM                                                                                                                   
REPRESENTATIVE   KREISS-TOMKINS   noted   that  the   oil   price                                                               
forecasting from  DOR shows a  steady upward climb. He  asked Mr.                                                               
Painter  to  speak to  the  assumptions  DOR  used and  what  the                                                               
general price forecast looks like.                                                                                              
                                                                                                                                
MR.  PAINTER  answered that  DOR  looks  heavily at  the  futures                                                               
market and the analysts' oil  market projections. DOR is planning                                                               
a methodology  change in the fall  of 2019 that will  look almost                                                               
exclusively  at the  futures market.  The futures  market is  oil                                                               
traders  predicting how  much oil  will sell  for in  the future.                                                               
Generally,  the forecasts  are  fairly flat.  He  said he  cannot                                                               
recall  a time  they  predicted  a large  spike  or  drop in  oil                                                               
prices.                                                                                                                         
                                                                                                                                
REPRESENTATIVE  KREISS-TOMKINS  asked  if   a  more  bearish  oil                                                               
revenue  forecast   will  result   if  DOR  switches   its  price                                                               
forecasting to a more futures-weighted methodology.                                                                             
                                                                                                                                
MR. PAINTER  answered that  he cannot speculate  on that  but DOR                                                               
has said  its internal model shows  the change results in  a more                                                               
accurate forecast.                                                                                                              
                                                                                                                                
REPRESENTATIVE KREISS-TOMKINS  asked why futures traders  tend to                                                               
predict a flatter price forecast.                                                                                               
                                                                                                                                
MR.  PAINTER explained  that when  the oil  market is  stable, if                                                               
prices  have been  decreasing, they  will often  have a  downward                                                               
slope. If prices are increasing,  they will have an upward slope.                                                               
At current prices  where traders seem to feel like  the market is                                                               
in a  comfortable area without  volatility, the forecast  will be                                                               
relatively flat. Price forecasts depend on volatility.                                                                          
                                                                                                                                
11:06:27 AM                                                                                                                   
CO-CHAIR  BISHOP noted  that in  the future,  the committee  will                                                               
have  a chance  to  ask  some industry  experts  about oil  price                                                               
forecasts.                                                                                                                      
                                                                                                                                
SENATOR  STEDMAN   explained  that   what  the  state   has  done                                                               
historically  is to  take into  account the  Revenue Source  Book                                                               
projections, the International Energy  Agency (IEA) forecast, the                                                               
federal  forecast, and  then to  use the  state's opinion  on how                                                               
accurate the targets are to then put a band of prices on.                                                                       
                                                                                                                                
CO-CHAIR  BISHOP said  the  recent IEA  forecast  for West  Texas                                                               
Intermediate  (WTI), indicates  prices  will drop  below $50  per                                                               
barrel in 2020.                                                                                                                 
                                                                                                                                
SENATOR HUGHES asked for an explanation  the "1s" and "0s" in the                                                               
inflation proofing assumption in the center column.                                                                             
                                                                                                                                
MR.  PAINTER explained  that it  shows the  various options  that                                                               
have been  proposed in  the past for  how to  calculate inflation                                                               
proofing. The  House advanced  a bill  two years  ago that  had a                                                               
portion of  the inflation  proofing be a  percentage of  the POMV                                                               
draw.  That  is not  in  current  statute  and  it has  not  been                                                               
proposed this session,  but it's shown as an  option because it's                                                               
been proposed.                                                                                                                  
                                                                                                                                
The "1"  indicates the current  statute is  used and that  the $4                                                               
billion transfer also happens.                                                                                                  
                                                                                                                                
11:08:49 AM                                                                                                                   
SENATOR HUGHES asked if the  "1s" represent $1 billion. She asked                                                               
if all the charts would change with more inflation proofing.                                                                    
                                                                                                                                
MR. PAINTER  answered yes.  He explained that  the "1s"  mean yes                                                               
and  the  "0s" mean  no  so  he would  read  the  1 as  yes,  the                                                               
inflation  proofing  statute is  on.  If  inflation proofing  was                                                               
doubled,  the  ERA  balance  would  decrease  and  the  principal                                                               
balance would increase.                                                                                                         
                                                                                                                                
SENATOR HUGHES  asked if the  red bars in the  UGF Revenue/Budget                                                               
graph would shrink if inflation proofing was increased.                                                                         
                                                                                                                                
MR. PAINTER  answered no. He explained  that the POMV draw  is on                                                               
the  entire fund,  the ERA  and  the principal,  so moving  money                                                               
between the two  does not change the ERA draw,  but it would make                                                               
a difference if the state was running out of money.                                                                             
                                                                                                                                
11:10:15 AM                                                                                                                   
REPRESENTATIVE WOOL referenced the  conversation about the impact                                                               
on  the PFD  and POMV  payout formulas  from selling  real estate                                                               
assets from  the Permanent Fund.  He asked for  confirmation that                                                               
real estate  sales would  not affect the  POMV payout  formula as                                                               
much as the statutory net income payout.                                                                                        
                                                                                                                                
MR. PAINTER  said that's  correct; a dividend  based on  the POMV                                                               
draw will be  more stable than a dividend based  on the statutory                                                               
net income.                                                                                                                     
                                                                                                                                
He reviewed  scenario 4, "25 percent  of POMV Draw" which  is the                                                               
version of SB 26 that the Senate passed in 2017:                                                                                
                                                                                                                                
   • The dividend would be about $1,100 and rising to about                                                                     
     $1,300, the approximate inflation growth.                                                                                  
   • Small deficits with some surpluses, roughly a balanced                                                                     
     budget if there are no other policy changes.                                                                               
   • No unplanned draws.                                                                                                        
   • CBR value stays roughly the same.                                                                                          
                                                                                                                                
11:13:27 AM                                                                                                                   
MR. PAINTER reviewed scenario 5,  "33 percent of POMV Draw" which                                                               
is the version of SB 26 the House passed in 2017:                                                                               
                                                                                                                                
   • The dividend is about $1,500 and a little larger in the                                                                    
     later years.                                                                                                               
   • Deficits are larger than in scenario 4, about $400 million                                                                 
     to $500 million.                                                                                                           
   • An income tax was included in the bill that would eliminate                                                                
     the deficit.                                                                                                               
   • If the scenario is done in isolation there are continued                                                                   
     deficits.                                                                                                                  
   • $35 million unplanned draw in FY2028.                                                                                      
 • CBR runs out in FY2028 because of the continued deficits.                                                                    
                                                                                                                                
He reviewed scenario  6, "20 percent of POMV Draw  and 20 percent                                                               
of  Petroleum Revenue"  which is  based on  Representative Wool's                                                               
bill and very  similar to Senate Bill 128 that  passed the Senate                                                               
in 2016:                                                                                                                        
                                                                                                                                
   • The only difference is SB 128 was based on all revenue and                                                                 
     scenario 6 is based on just oil royalties.                                                                                 
   • The dividend would be about $1,300 and rising.                                                                             
   • The dividend rises faster because of the oil revenue.                                                                      
 • There is a deficit of roughly $300 million in most years.                                                                    
   • The deficits are small enough that the CBR would last                                                                      
     through the FY2028 forecast period.                                                                                        
                                                                                                                                
REPRESENTATIVE KREISS-TOMKINS  asked what  the other  options are                                                               
in the oil price scenario menu in the model.                                                                                    
                                                                                                                                
MR. PAINTER  answered that  he was  asked to put  in quite  a few                                                               
options. The prices range from $20 up to $130 per barrel.                                                                       
                                                                                                                                
REPRESENTATIVE KREISS-TOMKINS  asked if he  had the IEA  or other                                                               
agency forecasts.                                                                                                               
                                                                                                                                
11:17:01 AM                                                                                                                   
MR. PAINTER replied no agency other  than DOR produces a model of                                                               
forecasts of Alaska  North Slope oil. They  produce forecasts for                                                               
other  types  of  oil  that  have different  prices  so  a  price                                                               
trajectory  can be  inputted, but  most of  the trajectories  are                                                               
flat.                                                                                                                           
                                                                                                                                
CO-CHAIR  JOHNSTON asked  if scenario  6 could  benefit from  the                                                               
increased volume that's discussed  as the industry renaissance in                                                               
Alaska.                                                                                                                         
                                                                                                                                
MR.  PAINTER answered  that the  model only  uses the  production                                                               
forecast from the  Spring Revenue Forecast. He  offered to follow                                                               
up with more scenarios for the committee to review.                                                                             
                                                                                                                                
CO-CHAIR  JOHNSTON  said she  was  suggesting  following what  is                                                               
happening  on  the North  Slope.  The  model should  include  new                                                               
developments  on  either federal  or  state  lands that  includes                                                               
royalties  and not  overall income.  The  different models  could                                                               
have  a different  look if  further improvement  occurred on  the                                                               
North Slope.                                                                                                                    
                                                                                                                                
MR. PAINTER said he could  provide scenarios that consider higher                                                               
or  lower oil  production, which  definitely influences  revenue.                                                               
Those scenarios would be posted later.                                                                                          
                                                                                                                                
CO-CHAIR  BISHOP  thanked  Mr.  Painter for  presenting  the  six                                                               
models. He  said the  next phase  of the meeting  is to  show the                                                               
interactive  model  that   the  public  can  use   at  home.  The                                                               
interactive  model   will  be  posted   later  in  the   week  at                                                               
www.pfalaska.org.                                                                                                             
                                                                                                                                
11:20:50 AM                                                                                                                   
MR. PAINTER explained that the  interactive model was designed to                                                               
be simpler  than the  model he  was showing  previously. It  is a                                                               
model of  FY2020 only and it  has fewer levers to  pull to change                                                               
things. The dividend  for FY2020 was $1,606,  but the interactive                                                               
model allows  users to see what  the PFD could have  been and the                                                               
impact on the  budget. Users can also see what  oil price changes                                                               
might do to the budget.                                                                                                         
                                                                                                                                
He explained  that the interactive  model will accept  any number                                                               
between $20 and $130 for oil  prices. If $60 oil is inputted, the                                                               
deficit  goes  from $150  million  to  $400  million. If  $70  is                                                               
inputted, there  will be a  $100 million surplus.  Oil production                                                               
can be inputted  as well. If there is zero  oil production, there                                                               
would be a  $1.9 billion deficit based on a  POMV draw on non-oil                                                               
revenue only.                                                                                                                   
                                                                                                                                
For the  dividend options, users are  able to pick the  basis for                                                               
the formula.  Either input  a set dollar  amount; or  the current                                                               
statute,  50 percent,  or  25 percent;  or a  POMV  draw with  50                                                               
percent, 33  percent, or  25 percent. The  model will  accept any                                                               
number  between 1  and 100.  As  with the  previous models,  this                                                               
assumes there are no other policy changes.                                                                                      
                                                                                                                                
11:24:07 AM                                                                                                                   
SENATOR HUGHES asked if he could  run a scenario for a 50/50 POMV                                                               
draw with a flat budget and no inflation proofing.                                                                              
                                                                                                                                
MR. PAINTER  said the  scenario shows  that deficits  decrease as                                                               
revenue  grows roughly  with inflation.  The  earlier 50/50  POMV                                                               
model showed deficits  in the $900 million to  $1.1 billion range                                                               
and the model requested by  Senator Hughes reduces the deficit to                                                               
$700 million  and then $400 million  lower in out years.  He said                                                               
that model will be posted as well.                                                                                              
                                                                                                                                
REPRESENTATIVE WOOL opined that people  are not losing sleep over                                                               
deficits,  but they  are  concerned about  their  PFD checks.  He                                                               
asked why  the interactive  model includes  the option  to select                                                               
"zero oil production" because production  will not be zero and in                                                               
this model the dividend does not  depend on the price of oil. "Is                                                               
it just to show people what life is without oil?"                                                                               
                                                                                                                                
MR. PAINTER  answered that the committee  co-chairs requested the                                                               
"zero oil  production" and  they can speak  to their  request. He                                                               
speculated that the purpose is that  oil is a finite resource and                                                               
someday, maybe  40 years in the  future, the state will  not have                                                               
oil.                                                                                                                            
                                                                                                                                
REPRESENTATIVE WOOL pointed out  that the oil production variable                                                               
is  non-variable.  Last year  oil  production  was under  500,000                                                               
barrels/day,  but  new  fields   are  coming  online  that  could                                                               
increase production to 750,000  barrels/day. He acknowledged that                                                               
prices are  volatile and asked if  he could run a  model with oil                                                               
prices cut one-third and a 50 percent scenario is used.                                                                         
                                                                                                                                
11:28:03 AM                                                                                                                   
MR. PAINTER said he'd use  inflation proofing on inflation growth                                                               
as a  starting point. Assuming  a price of $35/barrel  that grows                                                               
with inflation, the deficit would be  in the $1.8 billion to $2.2                                                               
billion  range.   He  noted  that   oil  at  $35/barrel   is  not                                                               
improbable.                                                                                                                     
                                                                                                                                
REPRESENTATIVE WOOL  asked if  the scenario  will be  titled, "50                                                               
Percent of POMV."                                                                                                               
                                                                                                                                
MR. PAINTER answered yes.                                                                                                       
                                                                                                                                
REPRESENTATIVE  MERRICK asked  if  he had  heard any  discussions                                                               
about a price  change model for the  PFD; a drop in  the price of                                                               
oil to a  certain level triggers a change in  the formula for the                                                               
PFD.                                                                                                                            
                                                                                                                                
MR.  PAINTER replied  he has  heard discussions,  but he  has not                                                               
seen a proposal  for that and it is difficult  to model something                                                               
that does  not have a  clear mechanism.  It is possible,  but the                                                               
difficult part  is figuring out  the timing relative to  when the                                                               
PFD check  is finalized  in September.  That would  have to  be a                                                               
policy discussion, he said.                                                                                                     
                                                                                                                                
11:30:16 AM                                                                                                                   
REPRESENTATIVE  KREISS-TOMKINS said  his synthesized  takeaway is                                                               
that the scenarios  for price and production  forecasts have been                                                               
optimistic and rosy but there  has not been talk about worst-case                                                               
scenarios  such as  an earthquake  that severs  TAPS for  several                                                               
months  or   a  federal   tax  on   carbon  or   a  technological                                                               
breakthrough  that  makes  hydrocarbons  obsolete  as  an  energy                                                               
source. He  said he  does not  feel comfortable  banking Alaska's                                                               
future on  what is, on  balance, thin optimistic  scenarios. It's                                                               
important to  balance the  up sides  and the  down sides  and the                                                               
down sides  are a lot  more serious and  worse for the  future of                                                               
Alaska than the up sides with regard to the budget.                                                                             
                                                                                                                                
REPRESENTATIVE  WOOL  asked Mr.  Painter  to  model $35  oil  for                                                               
scenario 6, "20 percent of POMV  Draw and 20 percent of Petroleum                                                               
Revenue," to show deficits in that scenario.                                                                                    
                                                                                                                                
MR.  PAINTER said  the deficit  in  that scenario  is roughly  $1                                                               
billion to $1.1  billion, so it's still  substantial. Compared to                                                               
a 33-percent  POMV, the deficit is  larger and the PFD  is bigger                                                               
because it is  not dependent on oil prices. With  $35 oil the PFD                                                               
is roughly $1,100. At the  Spring Revenue Forecast the PFD $1,300                                                               
and  rising,  so   the  lower  oil  price   makes  a  substantial                                                               
difference in the PFD and the size of the deficit.                                                                              
                                                                                                                                
11:33:17 AM                                                                                                                   
CO-CHAIR BISHOP observed  that all the scenarios  have a deficit,                                                               
but some  are worse than  others. He opined that  finding revenue                                                               
alternatives  going forward  is important.  Last year  SB 26  was                                                               
created to  provide new revenue  to help bolster oil  revenue for                                                               
the state.  Those efforts must  continue because Alaska has  a 20                                                               
to 30-year window to diversify  its economy. Getting ahead of the                                                               
curve will benefit the state and future Alaskans.                                                                               
                                                                                                                                
SENATOR STEDMAN pointed out that  while Alaska has spent down $12                                                               
billion  from its  savings  accounts,  the state  is  still in  a                                                               
better position than Alberta, Canada  who borrowed $90 billion to                                                               
finance  its government.  Alaska  is in  a  fairly good  position                                                               
despite the  fretting about the  dividend to the  people, feeding                                                               
the government  machine, and taking  care of future  Alaskans. He                                                               
said the legislature will come up  with a solution that will work                                                               
for everybody and take care of  future Alaskans. "I think that we                                                               
should be not so gloomy as  we work through this process and come                                                               
to a solution."                                                                                                                 
                                                                                                                                
CO-CHAIR  BISHOP  agreed that  the  state  is  in a  fairly  good                                                               
position. It  is in  the black with  $64 billion  whereas Alberta                                                               
might get $30 a barrel for their oil on a good day.                                                                             
                                                                                                                                
11:36:26 AM                                                                                                                   
SENATOR  HUGHES thanked  Senator Stedman  for reminding  everyone                                                               
that  Alaska has  things to  be grateful  for. She  said Alaskans                                                               
have good heads  on their shoulders and would be  willing to look                                                               
at changes should a worst-case event occur.                                                                                     
                                                                                                                                
SENATOR HUGHES  expressed hope that other  legislators would join                                                               
her  in  getting  of  their  high   horse  to  come  to  a  grand                                                               
compromise. She  said she expects to  be beat up a  bit by people                                                               
in  her district  and around  the state  that are  supporting the                                                               
historical formula  and have  looked at her  to carry  that flag.                                                               
She emphasized  that people  must be  realistic and  realize that                                                               
the historic draw is eroding growth  of the funds, so a change is                                                               
necessary. She said  the conflict is that there are  two draws in                                                               
statute.                                                                                                                        
                                                                                                                                
SENATOR HUGHES stated  that she is willing to  accept the smaller                                                               
draw and she  hopes that someone in the other  camp will join her                                                               
in  the grand  compromise. She  said the  legislature is  getting                                                               
wrapped  around the  axel on  this one  issue at  the expense  of                                                               
addressing other important problems.                                                                                            
                                                                                                                                
CO-CHAIR  BISHOP advised  that committee  members will  receive a                                                               
draft summation to  review. Once there is agreement  on the final                                                               
report, it will be conveyed to the presiding officers.                                                                          
                                                                                                                                
11:40:10 AM                                                                                                                   
There being  no further  business to  come before  the committee,                                                               
Co-Chair Bishop  adjourned the  Bicameral Permanent  Fund Working                                                               
Group meeting at 11:40 a.m.                                                                                                     

Document Name Date/Time Subjects
Legislative Finance Presentation - Models and Scenarios on Permanent Fund Earnings and the Budget.pdf JPFG 10/7/2019 10:00:00 AM
Permanent Fund Working Group
Legislative Finance - Additional Scenarios from 10-7-19 meeting.pdf JPFG 10/7/2019 10:00:00 AM
Permanent Fund Working Group
Legislative Finance Permanent Fund Dividend Interactive Model.xlsx JPFG 10/7/2019 10:00:00 AM
Permanent Fund Working Group